Obama up officially by 7%.
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Obama up officially by 7%.
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Author Topic: Obama up officially by 7%.  (Read 1476 times)
ChrisFromNJ
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« on: December 05, 2008, 10:05:53 AM »
« edited: December 05, 2008, 10:09:18 AM by Office of the President-Elect »

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

As of 12/05/2008
52.84% for Obama
45.69% for McCain

What would have been the margin of victory for Obama had he not been black? He got slaughtered in the South and Appalachia, as I'm sure everybody knows.

Would he have won by a Reagan 1980 margin?
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2008, 10:19:41 AM »

Well, I think the fact that he was black probably equally helped as hurt.

What I think is the reason why his margins weren't any higher is that he ran against a candidate who had a centrist reputation and an alibi in his long-term intraparty opponent. If there was a war with 5000+ deaths and unemployment hovering around 7% in 2004 and if Obama got elect to the senate in 1998 or 2000... I would say that it would have been-

Obama 55
Bush 44
Other 1

So yes, if McCain didn't have any non-traditional excuses, Obama would have a similiar PV margin as Ronald Reagan did in 1980. He would have also won Montana and Missouri and reached 379 EVs, but he wouldn't have won the Dakotas or Georgia.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2008, 10:23:52 AM »

According to the Wikipedia site, it's now:

Obama: 69.4 Mio. votes - 52.9%
McCain: 59.9 Mio. votes - 45.7%
Others: 1.9 Mio. votes - 1.4%

Maybe McCain will get over 60 Mio., but I doubt Obama will top the 70 Mio.
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