John Sharp declares bid for Texan Seat (Update: So does White)

[Lunar]

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/topstories/stories/120908dntexsharp.42adf930.html

AUSTIN — Former Comptroller John Sharp announced Monday that he will run to succeed Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who could resign next year to challenge the Republican governor.

Mr. Sharp, a moderate Democrat and political veteran, said he will file the paperwork Jan. 1 to begin raising money for the race.

Ms. Hutchison has opened an exploratory committee to challenge Gov. Rick Perry in the 2010 Republican primary for governor.

That would trigger a political scramble for her Senate seat. Her term runs through 2012, but if she leaves Washington before then, a special election would be held to fill the seat.

On Monday, Mr. Sharp, 58, served notice he intends to seek the seat whenever it opens.

"I will be a candidate whether the election is in 2012 or any time before then," Mr. Sharp said. "Texans face tough challenges that call for innovative solutions, and that’s what our campaign is all about."

Mr. Sharp is a pro-life Catholic with potential appeal to rural and suburban voters who are among the state GOP’s most reliable voters in recent elections. He has long been seen as the Democrat best positioned to win a statewide race, though he lost bids for lieutenant governor in 1998 and 2002. The latter came against Republican David Dewhurst, a potential GOP candidate for Ms. Hutchison’s seat.

The Sharp camp was heartened by a recent survey by a GOP pollster that found the Republican Party is losing support among Texas voters who say they are more open to voting for Democrats.

Republican consultant Craig Murphy said that there are some demographic trends that Democrats hope will benefit them “but not something overnight” likely to shake GOP dominance in state politics.

"We just had an election, and that's a poll to beat all polls," he said, noting Texas voters supported John McCain for president and re-elected Republican John Cornyn to the Senate.

Mr. Sharp’s early announcement was seen as an effort to discourage other potential Democrats. Among potential Democratic contenders are Houston Mayor Bill White; former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, and Dallas state Rep. Rafael Anchia.

Among Republicans mentioned are state Sen. Florence Shapiro, former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, and Mr. Dewhurst.

Mr. Sharp served in the state Legislature from Victoria and was elected to the Texas Railroad Commission and as comptroller.

He and Mr. Perry were students together at Texas A&M but became politically estranged until 2006, when San Antonio megachurch pastor John Hagee brokered a reconciliation that led to the governor appointing Mr. Sharp to lead a commission to craft a property tax overhaul.

Mr. Sharp was instrumental in crafting the new tax code that cut school property taxes and created a new business tax. He works for the Dallas-based business tax-consulting firm Ryan & Co.

[Lief 🗽]

Yay! Sharp is probably the only Democrat in Texas, besides Mayor Bill White, who can win the open seat.

[Lunar]

Yay! Sharp is probably the only Democrat in Texas, besides Mayor Bill White, who can win the open seat.

He's the last Democrat to be elected statewide in Texas, so I feel good about it

[DownWithTheLeft]

Another seat that the pads the Democratic numbers but is really just another Republican

[Lunar]

Another seat that the pads the Democratic numbers but is really just another Republican

Party membership is almost as important as ideology when it comes to technical cloture votes.


And hell, running a moderate who can win > losing to a Cornyn

Ironically, the pro-life movement would gain with a Hutchison-Sharp switch.

[Holmes]

There's not even a picture on his wiki. Maybe that says something.

*Google image search*

[HappyWarrior]

My kind of Democrat.

[Lief 🗽]

Sharp is the one on the left, not the one with the meticulously-styled hair.

[Nym90]

Will be interested in seeing Sam's analysis of why Sharp can't win. I'm guessing he'll say that he has a ceiling of 46-47 percent statewide.

Too bad we didn't have a joke candidate in the 2006 Gubernatorial race; that was our one (and maybe only for a while) chance to actually win something in Texas.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't remember why Sharp didn't run in 2006. He very likely could have won (with like 37% of the vote, but a win's a win ).

[Sam Spade]

Yay! Sharp is probably the only Democrat in Texas, besides Mayor Bill White, who can win the open seat.

Corrected. 

As to Nym's question, since this will be a special election, you can't make the types of assumptions that I think Nym wants me to make.    In fact, throw most of your assumptions out of the window.

Special elections for open Texas Senate seats are weird.  Usually, you get tons of candidates who split the vote a million ways and the top two who survive that mess get to the runoff.

My first concern for Sharp is getting past this jungle primary.  Especially if there's a Hispanic or Black in the mix.

[Lunar]

The article theorizes that he announced early to intimidate them.  Who knows if it will work though.

Also, isn't Hutchison at least somewhat likely to retire in 2009, making her replacement a normal election?

[Nym90]

Yay! Sharp is probably the only Democrat in Texas, besides Mayor Bill White, who can win the open seat.

Corrected. 

As to Nym's question, since this will be a special election, you can't make the types of assumptions that I think Nym wants me to make.    In fact, throw most of your assumptions out of the window.

Special elections for open Texas Senate seats are weird.  Usually, you get tons of candidates who split the vote a million ways and the top two who survive that mess get to the runoff.

My first concern for Sharp is getting past this jungle primary.  Especially if there's a Hispanic or Black in the mix.

Hey, I'd love to hear you say Sharp can win. Just trying to predict your predictions in advance, that's all.

I have to think Sharp would have trouble matching Obama's performance in the suburban areas, which would kill any chance he'd have of winning. Then of course there's the fact that Obama being in office hurts any Democrat in the rural parts of the state, even Sharp (just him less so than others).

But yeah, obviously special elections are weird. Turnout as always is critical. Obviously Sharp could win if the GOP comes up with a bad candidate (gotta think there's a deep bench in Texas though...just a matter of whether there's a divisive primary and all probably).

[Sam Spade]

Yay! Sharp is probably the only Democrat in Texas, besides Mayor Bill White, who can win the open seat.

Corrected. 

As to Nym's question, since this will be a special election, you can't make the types of assumptions that I think Nym wants me to make.    In fact, throw most of your assumptions out of the window.

Special elections for open Texas Senate seats are weird.  Usually, you get tons of candidates who split the vote a million ways and the top two who survive that mess get to the runoff.

My first concern for Sharp is getting past this jungle primary.  Especially if there's a Hispanic or Black in the mix.

Hey, I'd love to hear you say Sharp can win. Just trying to predict your predictions in advance, that's all.

I have to think Sharp would have trouble matching Obama's performance in the suburban areas, which would kill any chance he'd have of winning. Then of course there's the fact that Obama being in office hurts any Democrat in the rural parts of the state, even Sharp (just him less so than others).

But yeah, obviously special elections are weird. Turnout as always is critical. Obviously Sharp could win if the GOP comes up with a bad candidate (gotta think there's a deep bench in Texas though...just a matter of whether there's a divisive primary and all probably).

I would be more concerned about him getting past the jungle primary first.

In a special election, obviously minority turnout would be much lower than normal, especially if Sharp was the candidate.  However, Sharp has performed well in rural Texas before, and the fact that he is pro-business, pro-life, etc. (i.e. conservative Democrat) would help him in a two-person race.

[agcatter]

He might could reach 47% in a two man race.  No Obama to bring out the blacks in 2010.  Sharp can't even have Obama campaign for him as that would cut into the white vote he absolutely needs.  Can't have your cake and eat it too.

Moderate?  Tie him to padding Harry Reid's majority in congress which will show it's colors over the next two years.  It won't wash in Texas, but keep telling yourself that Democrats will gain the seat.  Cornyn got 55% of the vote for reelection and that was a year with Obama bringing out record minority support.  Won't have that in 2010.

Next.

[Brittain33]

He might could reach 47% in a two man race.

What would you say is Obama's electoral vote ceiling in 2012, BTW?

[Sam Spade]

The article theorizes that he announced early to intimidate them.  Who knows if it will work though.

Knowing the black/Hispanic legislators in Texas, I doubt it.  He's probably worked more with Rick Perry than with them, anyways.

The two times I remember Texas having the special election, the jungle primary attracted tons of candidates - like somewhere between 50 and 70 (jimrtex would know for sure).  It's hard to keep politicians from running when all they have to do is finish in the top two in that mess (and 20-25% might be enough) and they don't have to give up their other seats.

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If Hutchinson resigns anytime during 2009 or before the 62nd day after the primary election in 2010 (which is early, but still), a special election must be called.  Otherwise, it happens at the next general election (but I don't think you can straight-ticket vote however).

Texas law requires certain people to not hold a different elected office when running for another in a primary, but I don't know whether Hutchinson is affected by that.  I suspect she would leave before the primary anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm sorry, guys, but a Texas U.S. Senate seat in a midterm or special? Am I the only one thinking that this guy still has a very steep hill to climb regardless of how moderate or conservative he may be?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm sorry, guys, but a Texas U.S. Senate seat in a midterm or special? Am I the only one thinking that this guy still has a very steep hill to climb regardless of how moderate or conservative he may be?

I tend to agree. It would have to take a very weak GOP Candidate and strong almost 2008 style minority turnout. Who do you think should run on the GOP side. I really like Jeb Hensarling but I don;t know if he would run. I have seen some of the other GOP Reps on C-span some are pretty good but few look like they have the caliber of higher office.

He might could reach 47% in a two man race.

What would you say is Obama's electoral vote ceiling in 2012, BTW?

I'll opine on this myself. I would say 400 to 420 if we nominate a real born loser and he is super popular.

[Lunar]

Wait for the opposition to become clear

My suspicion, knowing nothing of Texan politics, is than the primary might be a bit on the crowded side and a less-than-awesomely electable person may rise to the top.  I mean, the GOP would still be favored, but it won't  be the ideal candidate... I suspect.  I don't know how much control the Texas and National GOP has over influencing candidacies in Texas (like, pressuring out unwelcome competitors).

This is reasonably likely to end up as a crapshoot where a lot of people compete since they won't have to give up their dayjobs.  I would be slightly inclined to say that Sharp has an easier time clearing the field than anyone who comes to mind on the GOP side.  In addition, if Barack Obama pledges through backchannels to endorse Sharp, it may discourage competitive competition to sharp's candidacy (and Obama could always endorse/campaign for Sharp even if he faces honest minority candidates).  Even further, aren't most of the prominent Democrats white in this state?  Noriega just got his small balloon popped...


Anyway, my completely uninformed guess is that Sharp, with support from the DNSC, will win the primaries and will face someone farther to the right than Cornyn.  But Obviously Sharp would still be favored to lose.

[Sam Spade]

Wait for the opposition to become clear

My suspicion, knowing nothing of Texan politics, is than the primary might be a bit on the crowded side and a less-than-awesomely electable person may rise to the top.  I mean, the GOP would still be favored, but it won't  be the ideal candidate... I suspect.  I don't know how much control the Texas and National GOP has over influencing candidacies in Texas (like, pressuring out unwelcome competitors).

This is reasonably likely to end up as a crapshoot where a lot of people compete since they won't have to give up their dayjobs.  I would be slightly inclined to say that Sharp has an easier time clearing the field than anyone who comes to mind on the GOP side.  In addition, if Barack Obama pledges through backchannels to endorse Sharp, it may discourage competitive competition to sharp's candidacy (and Obama could always endorse/campaign for Sharp even if he faces honest minority candidates).  Even further, aren't most of the prominent Democrats white in this state?  Noriega just got his small balloon popped...


Anyway, my completely uninformed guess is that Sharp, with support from the DNSC, will win the primaries and will face someone farther to the right than Cornyn.  But Obviously Sharp would still be favored to lose.

Clearly, you know nothing about Texas elections.  So please stop posting about it.  Hutchinson made it out of the 1993 special election and she was far from the most conservative R on the ballot then.  You also didn't even mention the fact that Gene Kelly (D) will be on the ballot, causing problems for any Anglo Democrats, as he normally does.

One other note: I'm pretty sure that (and I need to re-read Texas election law to make sure), during the time in-between the resignation and the special election, Perry gets to appoint someone (who may or may run).  They may or may not run/have institutional support.

Anyway, if I had to wager, the Republican who will probably be their favored candidate is Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.  In fact, I suspect he may cut Hutchinson a deal for her people's support in exchange for his support of her as Governor.  That would make it Battle #3 between Dewhurst and Sharp, should both make it to the final round (presently Dewhurst leads 2-0).

[Lunar]

I imagine that most people on the forum are not from Texas, but we're still able to provide our inclinations filled with infinite I'm not sure's without your attempted internet bullying.  Obviously people will make mistakes, but posts filled with reservations are hardly the ones to target. 

At least when I try and be an internet macho, I do it on less humble posts. 

[Brittain33]

Hutchinson made it out of the 1993 special election and she was far from the most conservative R on the ballot then. 

God knows the Texas Republican Party hasn't changed at all since then, when winning a statewide race was still something to be proud of and not taken for granted, and the factions hadn't amped up their fighting for nominations because the prize had yet to become so certain and so valuable.

Do you think Dolly Madison McKenna will make a run in a 2010 primary?

[agcatter]

Mayor White said he will run according to this morning's Chronicle.  Therefore, Sharp doesn't even have a clear path amongst Democrats.

Kay Baily has hinted that she will resign late next year allowing Perry to appoint a Republican.  That gives the incumbent Republican the poll position for any special election.  Very uphill for any Democrat to take Kay Baily's seat.

This one stays R.  I might add that we aren't talking a 2012 November presidential election.  No Obama on the ballot to get out the black vote (see the Georgia senatorial runoff three weeks ago).  Even in November with maximum Obama turnout numbers among minorities, Cornyn won his race by 12 points.

I know my state and for the reasons I stated above, this is a race that won't seriously be in question.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Another 55-45 statewide race in Texas. Pass.