John Sharp declares bid for Texan Seat (Update: So does White)

[Sam Spade]

Yay! Sharp is probably the only Democrat in Texas, besides Mayor Bill White, who can win the open seat.

Corrected. 

As to Nym's question, since this will be a special election, you can't make the types of assumptions that I think Nym wants me to make.    In fact, throw most of your assumptions out of the window.

Special elections for open Texas Senate seats are weird.  Usually, you get tons of candidates who split the vote a million ways and the top two who survive that mess get to the runoff.

My first concern for Sharp is getting past this jungle primary.  Especially if there's a Hispanic or Black in the mix.

[Sam Spade]

Yay! Sharp is probably the only Democrat in Texas, besides Mayor Bill White, who can win the open seat.

Corrected. 

As to Nym's question, since this will be a special election, you can't make the types of assumptions that I think Nym wants me to make.    In fact, throw most of your assumptions out of the window.

Special elections for open Texas Senate seats are weird.  Usually, you get tons of candidates who split the vote a million ways and the top two who survive that mess get to the runoff.

My first concern for Sharp is getting past this jungle primary.  Especially if there's a Hispanic or Black in the mix.

Hey, I'd love to hear you say Sharp can win. Just trying to predict your predictions in advance, that's all.

I have to think Sharp would have trouble matching Obama's performance in the suburban areas, which would kill any chance he'd have of winning. Then of course there's the fact that Obama being in office hurts any Democrat in the rural parts of the state, even Sharp (just him less so than others).

But yeah, obviously special elections are weird. Turnout as always is critical. Obviously Sharp could win if the GOP comes up with a bad candidate (gotta think there's a deep bench in Texas though...just a matter of whether there's a divisive primary and all probably).

I would be more concerned about him getting past the jungle primary first.

In a special election, obviously minority turnout would be much lower than normal, especially if Sharp was the candidate.  However, Sharp has performed well in rural Texas before, and the fact that he is pro-business, pro-life, etc. (i.e. conservative Democrat) would help him in a two-person race.

[Sam Spade]

The article theorizes that he announced early to intimidate them.  Who knows if it will work though.

Knowing the black/Hispanic legislators in Texas, I doubt it.  He's probably worked more with Rick Perry than with them, anyways.

The two times I remember Texas having the special election, the jungle primary attracted tons of candidates - like somewhere between 50 and 70 (jimrtex would know for sure).  It's hard to keep politicians from running when all they have to do is finish in the top two in that mess (and 20-25% might be enough) and they don't have to give up their other seats.

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If Hutchinson resigns anytime during 2009 or before the 62nd day after the primary election in 2010 (which is early, but still), a special election must be called.  Otherwise, it happens at the next general election (but I don't think you can straight-ticket vote however).

Texas law requires certain people to not hold a different elected office when running for another in a primary, but I don't know whether Hutchinson is affected by that.  I suspect she would leave before the primary anyway.

[Sam Spade]

Wait for the opposition to become clear

My suspicion, knowing nothing of Texan politics, is than the primary might be a bit on the crowded side and a less-than-awesomely electable person may rise to the top.  I mean, the GOP would still be favored, but it won't  be the ideal candidate... I suspect.  I don't know how much control the Texas and National GOP has over influencing candidacies in Texas (like, pressuring out unwelcome competitors).

This is reasonably likely to end up as a crapshoot where a lot of people compete since they won't have to give up their dayjobs.  I would be slightly inclined to say that Sharp has an easier time clearing the field than anyone who comes to mind on the GOP side.  In addition, if Barack Obama pledges through backchannels to endorse Sharp, it may discourage competitive competition to sharp's candidacy (and Obama could always endorse/campaign for Sharp even if he faces honest minority candidates).  Even further, aren't most of the prominent Democrats white in this state?  Noriega just got his small balloon popped...


Anyway, my completely uninformed guess is that Sharp, with support from the DNSC, will win the primaries and will face someone farther to the right than Cornyn.  But Obviously Sharp would still be favored to lose.

Clearly, you know nothing about Texas elections.  So please stop posting about it.  Hutchinson made it out of the 1993 special election and she was far from the most conservative R on the ballot then.  You also didn't even mention the fact that Gene Kelly (D) will be on the ballot, causing problems for any Anglo Democrats, as he normally does.

One other note: I'm pretty sure that (and I need to re-read Texas election law to make sure), during the time in-between the resignation and the special election, Perry gets to appoint someone (who may or may run).  They may or may not run/have institutional support.

Anyway, if I had to wager, the Republican who will probably be their favored candidate is Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst.  In fact, I suspect he may cut Hutchinson a deal for her people's support in exchange for his support of her as Governor.  That would make it Battle #3 between Dewhurst and Sharp, should both make it to the final round (presently Dewhurst leads 2-0).

[Sam Spade]

Having White and Sharp in the same contest pretty much, in my mind, assures that neither of them get out.

That being said, of the two, White would be the more likely one to get into the runoff.  Of course, unlike Sharp, White has zero chance of winning a special election runoff.

[Sam Spade]

Perry could well appoint himself, but here's the problem with that.

If he does that, Dewhurst will become Governor.  IMO (just based on what I've observed), Dewhurst is the smartest man among the Republicans in statewide government right now in Texas.  He'll know well enough that he will be unlikely to beat Hutchinson, and even if he did, it would be bruising and ugly.

So, he would cut a deal with Hutchinson to get her people's support and run in the special Senate election where I suspect he'd have the advantage against Perry among Republicans (especially with Hutchinson support).  Presumably, he would also re-run for Lt. Governor again.