John Sharp declares bid for Texan Seat (Update: So does White)

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He might could reach 47% in a two man race.  No Obama to bring out the blacks in 2010.  Sharp can't even have Obama campaign for him as that would cut into the white vote he absolutely needs.  Can't have your cake and eat it too.

Moderate?  Tie him to padding Harry Reid's majority in congress which will show it's colors over the next two years.  It won't wash in Texas, but keep telling yourself that Democrats will gain the seat.  Cornyn got 55% of the vote for reelection and that was a year with Obama bringing out record minority support.  Won't have that in 2010.

Next.

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Mayor White said he will run according to this morning's Chronicle.  Therefore, Sharp doesn't even have a clear path amongst Democrats.

Kay Baily has hinted that she will resign late next year allowing Perry to appoint a Republican.  That gives the incumbent Republican the poll position for any special election.  Very uphill for any Democrat to take Kay Baily's seat.

This one stays R.  I might add that we aren't talking a 2012 November presidential election.  No Obama on the ballot to get out the black vote (see the Georgia senatorial runoff three weeks ago).  Even in November with maximum Obama turnout numbers among minorities, Cornyn won his race by 12 points.

I know my state and for the reasons I stated above, this is a race that won't seriously be in question.

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I believe I said "for the reasons I stated above".  Those reasons are sound although I'd be happy to hear anyone's opinions to the contrary.

I would also be happy to see the Democratic Party drop millions of dollars into a campaign here.  Ten to 20 million would be even better.  I suspect that won't happen.  In 2010, the Dem money will be pumped into Ohio, NH, NC, and, should Jeb opt not to run, Florida.

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I agree Sharp would be the stronger candidate in a runoff with the R although still a substantial underdog.  Having White in this does nothing but seal the final fate of Sharp.  And Sam is right, White would not win a statewide race against the Republican, particularly an interum sitting Republican senator.

Frankly, I'm shocked White didn't announce for governor although my guess is Kay Baily scared him off of that one.

Republicans won't lose this seat.  It's still Texas.

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Hmmm.  Hadn't thought of that.  Legal, but politically I'm not sure that would fly.  Interesting....  Perry is not that popular in Texas BTW.

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I would think so.

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I can think of a number of state office holding Republicans who probably wake up night and say to themselves "why not me?"

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Lot of good Republican candidates.  Attorny general Abbot for example.  Important not to clutter things up too much in a special selection with too many party candidates.  Exactly what Sharp and White are doing to themselves.  Dilute the party vote too much and you don't get in the runoff.