Shea-Porter vs. Gregg?

[Lunar]

Please let it not be so.  She's the third best person to do it, but that means she's basically the worst.

http://www.politickernh.com/jamespindell/4896/turn-shea-porter-maybe-more-serious-about-taking-gregg-hodes

For the last few weeks Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter has been exploring a run for the U.S. Senate and indications are that she is growing increasingly serious about it. In fact, there is the belief among some that she could even announce an exploratory committee in the next few weeks, several Democratic sources say, though those closer to her dismiss the it off hand.

Nevertheless, her agressiveness is something of a shock to many Democrats and particularly to associates of fellow Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes. Hodes had made it known last year that he was at least interested at a run in 2010 against Republican incumbent Judd Gregg though he was unsure whether or not he will run.

But while Hodes evaluates the pros and cons of a run, Shea-Porter has been more pro-active. She has a new consultant and she has hardly been quiet about soliciting advice on topic.

While it is striking some as a bold move -- possibly even brazen -- Shea-Porter has been making the argument that she is better Senate candidate than Hodes because she has been in tighter contests and won them. She also uses the fact that she has won despite long odds before. And then there is Manchester, the state's largest city, where she won all 12 wards a month ago.

Despite her argument and Democratic momentum in the Granite State, it should be said that Gregg is the most successful New Hampshire politician in his generation.

Politically the move makes sense. Shea-Porter's 1st Congressional District is the only one in New England listed with a Cook Political Index of zero, meaning that the district is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. While she was helped in major Democratic years in 2006 and 2008, history suggests that off-year elections like 2010 are unkind to those in the president's own party. So being a Democrat in 2010 under a President Obama in a swing district maybe unsafe. In fact, the safer move maybe for her to run state-wide where she can benefit from the more Democratic leaning 2nd Congressional District. Plus, if she loses, but gives a respectable run, she has more options politically than she would if she simply lost her Congressional seat.

That said, there are several questions. Among them:

1. Can she raise the money to be even in the same league as Gregg?

2. Does she have the political savvy to run a major U.S. Senate campaign or will she give control to those who do?

3. What will Jeanne Shaheen say/do?

4. What does this suggest about how she feels about Gov. John Lynch? Most believe Lynch won't run for the Senate, but he hasn't said anything on the topic and he is by far the strongest Democrat to run for the seat. Would the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee back him if she entered? If she enters will she have a caveat pledge that if Lynch wants in she will drop out? Such a move wouldn't be her style.

5. Who would run for her own seat and doesn't that mean Shea-Porter is willing to have that seat go to a Republican to pursue her ambition?

6. How will Gregg respond?

7. Does having Shea-Porter high up on the ticket make it more or less likely that John E. Sununu would run for governor?

8. Does her jumping in really prevent Hodes from challenging her in a primary?

[Joe Republic]

Shea-Porter is damn lucky to be where he is today.  I fully hope that he's prepared for defeat against Gregg.

[Lunar]

Shea-Porter is damn lucky to be where he is today.  I fully hope that he's prepared for defeat against Gregg.

That's pretty mean



Anyway, she underperformed Obama and is a lackluster fundraiser.

[Ronnie]

The only way the Democrats pick up this seat is if Lynch runs.  Case closed.

[Lunar]

The only way the Democrats pick up this seat is if Lynch runs.  Case closed.

Whoah whoah, hold on there.  This isn't exactly the same league as Kansas and Oklahoma where the governor will absolutely have to run, New England isn't really favorable territory for Republicans anymore. 

It's not "case closed" -- it's "case wait-n-see-what-Obama-does"

[Lief 🗽]

I like Carol Shea-Porter quite a bit, but she would lose the Senate race and we might lose her house seat, so no thank you.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I like Gregg a lot, plus there's very little chance he'd lose, so I hope that Shea-Porter, Lynch, etc., don't bother.

[Flying Dog]

Shea-Porter will have enough trouble holding her House seat (providing she doesn't face a sacrificial lamb candidate)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Shea-Porter is probably the most underestimated member of Congress.

[Mr.Phips]

I doubt Democrats want this.  I doubt she would get within 10 points of Gregg and Democrats could well lose her House seat if its open.

[Smash255]

New Hampshire isn't friendly to the GOP anymore and unless Obama's #'s are poor in 2010 I think she would have a decent chance of winning the seat, and the dems would have a pretty good chance of  holding onto her house seat.  With that being said, I would rather see Lynch run, because he would have an excellent chance of knocking off Gregg, and you woulnd't have to worry about an open house seat.

[dmet41]

Gregg is very popular in NH, the only person who makes this race competitive is Lynch, who would make the seat a toss up. Shea Porter has no shot, if 2010 is a great year for the Dems I could see Hodes being competitive, but not Shea Porter

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Come on. Maybe if she can prove she can break 52% in her own district, she could be competitive, but in 2010 it would be Tom Allen Part Two.

[Brittain33]

FYI, the last approval survey I can find for Gregg, Survey USA Nov. 06 post-election, had him at 50%/40%. Sununu was at 47%/44%. Collins was 73%/23% and Snowe was doing even better.

In October '06, he was 55%/36%; but Sununu was at 52%/41%. All this shows is that he has a few more points of personal loyalty than Sununu did above the baseline Republican vote.

I was skeptical about lumping Gregg in with Sununu for vulnerability, but this indicates there's potential here there never was in Maine. A lot of it depends on what kind of year 2010 is for Democrats.

"Gregg is very popular" is the CW but I think we may find out that it as dated and inaccurate as the CW about Liddy Dole... although I presume Gregg to be more effective than Dole is.

[Dan the Roman]

To echo an earlier point, the Gregg is popular stuff is very reminiscent of the equally patronizing  "Liddy Dole is safe against some unknown state senator" and is just as baseless. There is little to no evidence that Greg is particularly popular. He was middling governor, who barely won his seat in what was a very good GOP year in NH(1992) underperforming every other Republican on the ticket against a 2nd tier candidate. He faced a sacrificial lamb in 1998, and early polls showed him only around 10 points ahead of State Senator Burt Cohen in 2004, before he dropped out and was replaced with a 97 year old.

Also as noted, NH has changed enormously. What exactly makes people think a Republican can win statewide federal office here anymore? Shea-Porter, a certified loon, held off the strongest opponent who could be thrown at her, and while NH went for Obama by 10 points, the results were not, as they were in say New Jersey or Florida, only at the top, but remarkably stable all the way down, evidence of straight ticket voting even without that option which is a serious problem for the GOP in the state. The senate results were almost identical to the Presidential, as were the congressional, legislative and county ones.

This is not to say that Gregg can't win, but just as I will stake my rep on Pingree not being safe in ME-1 because Maine is not Connecticut or Massachusetts, New Hampshire is not like Maine, but more like a less Democratic version of Massachusetts and is the transition of moving from a red to a blue state, and should not therefore be mistaken for purple in any form. Gregg has strengths, but he has not run a real campaign since 1992, and that one didn't go so well.

All this said, Shea-Porter is a bad candidate statewide, but she is a bad candidate for her seat as well, and that seat is more Republican than the state. She may not be able to beat Gregg, but that is because she is a third tier candidate. There is no reason why people seem to think the Democrats need a first tier candidate like Lynch against Gregg. I am pretty sure Marchand or even Swett would have beaten Sununu last year. And Swett still has 2 million in the bank.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not saying that Gregg is completely safe but comparing Gregg, a New Hampshire institution, to Elizabeth Dole is silly.

[Brittain33]

I'm not saying that Gregg is completely safe but comparing Gregg, a New Hampshire institution, to Elizabeth Dole is silly.

What are you arguments for saying that? We've given ours, including Gregg's poll numbers, his record of weak election wins, and the changing state of New Hampshire politics.

What you said is the CW, but can you back it up any more? Note that Liddy Dole, whatever her weaknesses, represented a state significantly more Republican than N.H., and had a national profile that was considered an asset.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm not saying that Gregg is completely safe but comparing Gregg, a New Hampshire institution, to Elizabeth Dole is silly.

What are you arguments for saying that? We've given ours, including Gregg's poll numbers, his record of weak election wins, and the changing state of New Hampshire politics.

What you said is the CW, but can you back it up any more? Note that Liddy Dole, whatever her weaknesses, represented a state significantly more Republican than N.H., and had a national profile that was considered an asset.

National profile considered an asset? Making an ass out of herself for a year was an asset? Sure, NC is more Republican than NH but Gregg is definitely a stronger name in his state and a better campaigner. He has to be. Few people are as foolish as Elizabeth Dole.

You haven't given anything to prove his weakness regarding approval ratings. You cited a poll from 2006. Sure, his rating could have gotten worse but who knows? I'm not taking a poll from two years ago as a gold standard.

[Sam Spade]

Something a bit more recent than the above-cited polls and from a good NH pollster too.  I don't think UNH did polling on these things during the fall, except for the contested races (though I'm not 100% sure).  Knowing UNH, we'll probably get another one sometime early next year.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2008_summer_cong72308.pdf

[Smash255]

Come on. Maybe if she can prove she can break 52% in her own district, she could be competitive, but in 2010 it would be Tom Allen Part Two.

Gregg isn't even as remotely as popular as Collins, and while NH isn't quite as liberal as Maine, he is FAR more conservative than Collins as well.

[Brittain33]

Something a bit more recent than the above-cited polls and from a good NH pollster too.  I don't think UNH did polling on these things during the fall, except for the contested races (though I'm not 100% sure).  Knowing UNH, we'll probably get another one sometime early next year.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2008_summer_cong72308.pdf

Interesting... a poll that gave Sununu good results had Gregg at the same approval (53%) and lower disapprovals, with high undecideds. None of this bodes well for Gregg. I would have presumed he'd score much higher than Sununu based on the CW.

We will have to see who steps up to the plate for the Democrats and how 2010 shapes up but we can all agree that Gregg, if he has any sense, will be changing his voting record and views rather drastically with Obama in the White House.

[Brittain33]

National profile considered an asset? Making an ass out of herself for a year was an asset? Sure, NC is more Republican than NH but Gregg is definitely a stronger name in his state and a better campaigner. He has to be. Few people are as foolish as Elizabeth Dole.

You haven't given anything to prove his weakness regarding approval ratings. You cited a poll from 2006. Sure, his rating could have gotten worse but who knows? I'm not taking a poll from two years ago as a gold standard.

Phil,

We've cited what evidence there is. To repeat:

1. Gregg polls as well as Sununu does or a little better. He polls much worse than Snowe and Collins, the people he is most often compared to on this thread.
2. New Hampshire is trending rapidly Democratic.
3. The evidence shows, contrary to your assertion, he has not had to fight a campaign since 1992 and he did not do that well, even then, when New Hampshire was markedly more Republican and he was the incumbent governor.
4. Democrats have a broad bench of candidates in this state for the first time in modern history.

You're presenting your opinions in response and getting hung up on Liddy Dole, which is beside the point. Look, if you believe Gregg is an institution and the overwhelming favorite, that's your right. I'm saying the evidence says otherwise and there is an opening for Democrats here depending on how 2010 is and who runs. I didn't believe that 12 hours ago, but having done a little googling, I do now.

You're welcome to stick to your guns.

[Brittain33]

Come on. Maybe if she can prove she can break 52% in her own district, she could be competitive, but in 2010 it would be Tom Allen Part Two.

Gregg isn't even as remotely as popular as Collins, and while NH isn't quite as liberal as Maine, he is FAR more conservative than Collins as well.

He has a solid pro-life record. That is very difficult in N.H. I hope there is a race in that state because I am curious to see how he positions himself since he is so out-of-step with his constituents having voted as a standard conservative Republican placeman rather than a senator for New Hampshire.

[Keystone Phil]

1. Gregg polls as well as Sununu does or a little better. He polls much worse than Snowe and Collins, the people he is most often compared to on this thread.

And I'll repeat that what you presented is from 2006.

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Ok but that doesn't make him Liddy Dole-like.

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Not really. Shea - Porter has been regarded as a rather weak candidate and I haven't even heard Hodes mentioned. You have Lynch. That's not a broad bench.

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No, actually, that is the point. It's not fair to compare him to Dole. I clearly stated that I don't believe that Gregg is safe. You chose to ignore it.


 

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Maybe you need to see this again...

I'm not saying that Gregg is completely safe but comparing Gregg, a New Hampshire institution, to Elizabeth Dole is silly.

I never once argued that he was an overwhelming favorite. Let's stop being dishonest.

[Brittain33]

Ok but that doesn't make him Liddy Dole-like.

He's like Liddy Dole in that superficially everyone thought she'd be safe, but on examination she turned out to be vulnerable on many points. We've made that case. That's all.

Finding ways he's not like Liddy Dole in other respects is not relevant. My response was to show that for every Dole weakness you can identify that doesn't apply to Gregg, there's a Gregg weakness that doesn't apply to Dole. On balance, it evens out.