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Poll
Question: What party takes control?
#1
GOP		  
#2
Democratic		  
#3
Dead even, with Cheney breaking the tie for GOP		  
#4
Dead even, with Edwards breaking the tie for Democrats		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 58

Author Topic: U.S. Senate  (Read 27930 times)
A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« on: September 23, 2004, 02:24:13 PM »
The Senate is all that's standing in the way of the Marriage Protection Act right now, with a weak GOP lead of 53-47 (that's counting jumpin' Jim as a Democrat).

Three GOP seats are open; one of them will belong to Obama soon; two are close.

Meanwhile, there are five open Democrat seats, ALL in the deep south (though one is Florida)! I think Republicans will pull that one off too, but Alan Keyes will hand them a net gain of only 4.

But the Daschle factor could bring it back to five, should Thune be successful in unseating the anti-Bush minority leader.

This could be big. The GOP has a better than 50-50 shot at most of these seats.

My prediction: GOP 58-41-1

It's not going to get them the 60 procedural votes, but they may be too close for Democratic comfort.

Your thoughts?
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2004, 11:21:49 PM »
All of those seats are in the south (except South Dakota), and one of them is in Oklahoma.

They're going to win at least 3, and will probably win 5.

You're correct that the lead is 51-49, though. My mistake.
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2004, 08:09:01 PM »
There's no way Oklahoma, Alaska, and Colorado will be Democrat pickups. It's not just GOP territory; it's 60% Bush territory in two of those states.

I revise my prediction to 56-43-1
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2004, 06:05:27 PM »
Quote from: Senator IrishDemocrat on September 26, 2004, 01:33:56 AM
I want Inez Tenenbaum.  DeMint outright said "Stop whining about the economy".  That's assinine.  I'm sorry.  You guys in SC suffered HUGE from job losses.  

Whining is assinine. About anything.
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2004, 10:15:05 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2004, 10:20:01 PM by Philip »
I predict the GOP picks up North Carolina's seat.

So once again, I revise my prediction: this time to 57-42-1, which is about where I had it originally. Close to 60 votes.
Logged
A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2004, 01:39:08 AM »
Hmm...what do the polls show in WI and WA?

If those are really in play, I believe a strong GOP turnout could give us 59 seats - one short of the 60 needed for an up or down vote in the Senate.
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A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2004, 02:43:36 PM »
I don't see Wisconsin happening.

More like 58. Washington could go GOP.
Logged
A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2004, 04:09:34 PM »
51 + 4 > 54
Logged
A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2004, 01:49:11 PM »
I don't think Wisconsin or Washington is going to happen. I predict 56 or 57.
Logged
A18
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,794
Political Matrix
E: 9.23, S: -6.35
« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2005, 01:44:11 PM »
Quote from: sarnstrom54014 on October 03, 2004, 03:36:18 PM
Quote from: Philip on October 03, 2004, 02:43:36 PM
I don't see Wisconsin happening.

More like 58. Washington could go GOP.
There is no possible way the Republicans will have any more then 54 seats.

55 > 54
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