Who was the most accurate national pollster this year?

[Nym90]

One thing that's interesting with that pollster national trend line is that Obama had already taken back the lead pre 9/15 (and of course, his lead was never outside the margin of error even post GOP convention/pre 9/15 at any point, either); the race was already on its way to returning to its pre convention equilbrium of a 3-4 point Obama lead. Hence why I strongly disagree with the idea that McCain would've won if the crisis hadn't hit before Election Day.

[Nym90]

Yep. The national numbers conformed pretty much exactly to what Nate Silver had predicted before the conventions. The only reason McCain was tied in early September was because of his convention/VP bounce, which was bound to fade eventually.

Very true. What's the over/under on how many times we'll have to rebut the "McCain would've won if not for the financial crisis" argument over the next 4 years?

My guess is approximately the same number of times we've had to rebut the "Bush would've won in 1992 if Perot hadn't run" argument.

[Nym90]

Republicans like to deligitimize every Democratic victory. 1960 was stolen, 1976 was only because of Watergate, 1992/96 were because Perot was the spoiler, 2008 was because of the financial meltdown.

1932 was because of the Depression. 1940 and 1944 were because of World War II. 1964 was just a sympathy vote for JFK.

[Nym90]

Yep. The national numbers conformed pretty much exactly to what Nate Silver had predicted before the conventions. The only reason McCain was tied in early September was because of his convention/VP bounce, which was bound to fade eventually.

Very true. What's the over/under on how many times we'll have to rebut the "McCain would've won if not for the financial crisis" argument over the next 4 years?

My guess is approximately the same number of times we've had to rebut the "Bush would've won in 1992 if Perot hadn't run" argument.

Are you aware of Naomi Klein's phrase, "daily non-negotiable chore"?

I am now.