As usual, I defer to TheFix. I refuse to do intense research to get into someone as boring as Ritter's mind.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/12/co-senate_salazar_departure_cr.htmlThe expectation that Colorado Sen. Ken Salazar will be nominated as Interior Secretary by President-elect Barack Obama presents Republicans with a prime pickup opportunity in a swing state, an early sign that their fortunes may be turning after two disastrous elections in which the party lost a combined 13 seats in the Senate.
Gov. Bill Ritter (D) will appoint Salazar's replacement but that appointed senator will have less than two years to establish himself or herself before standing for election to a full six-year term in 2010.
While most Democrats were reluctant to speak about the race for the appointment before Salazar was formally announced by Obama, several names regularly came up in conversations with sources familiar with Colorado politics.
Here's a quick look at the frontrunners:
• Bill Ritter: Ritter won the 2006 governor's race by 17 points -- a stunning margin given the typically close statewide races in Colorado. Despite that wide margin, Republican strategists viewed Ritter as more vulnerable than Salazar heading into the 2010 election. Could Ritter jump ship to avoid a brutal reelection race? Maybe.
• John Hickenlooper: The Denver mayor is one of the most popular political figures in the state and is regularly mentioned for statewide openings. And, following the successful Democratic National Convention last summer in Denver, Hickenlooper's profile -- both in the state and nationally -- is even higher. Hickenlooper was easily reelected mayor in 2007 and is entering his sixth year in the job. Now might be a good time to make a move.
• John Salazar: The older brother of Ken Salazar, John currently holds the Western Slope 3rd congressional district -- a swing seat held by Republicans for more than a decade before he won it in 2004. John Salazar's appeal is obvious: he shares the popular political lineage of his brother and his appointment would allow Ritter to replace one Hispanic senator with another. If John Salazar was appointed, however, it would create a major problem for House Democrats who might struggle to hold his seat in a special election.
Of the other names mentioned regularly by Democrats, the most serious appears to be outgoing state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.
While Republicans expressed optimism about their chances of competing for Salazar's seat in two years time, there are two obvious hurdles for the GOP: a thin bench and the possibility that retiring Rep. Tom Tancredo will run for the seat.
Democrats' successes in Colorado over the past few elections have sidelined a number of Republican rising stars including former Reps. Bob Beauprez and Bob Schaffer -- both of whom lost badly in recent statewide races.
Beauprez, who was soundly defeated by Ritter in 2006, has been considering a run for governor or Senate in 2010 and the Salazar opening may make him more likely to go the federal route. Former Rep. Scott McInnis has considered running statewide several times and may not be able to pass on an open Senate seat. Conservative talk radio host Dan Caplis, who was actively involved in John McCain's Colorado campaign, is also seen as a possible candidate.
And then there is Tancredo, the controversial congressman and presidential candidate who is leaving Congress after five terms. Tancredo has said he is interested in running statewide and his strong opposition to illegal immigration gives him a strong foothold in a Republican primary. Most GOP strategists believe that Tancredo as the party's nominee would amount to handing the seat to Democrats.
Obama has largely avoided plucking elected officials for his Cabinet that create electoral problems down the line for Democrats. Salazar is a break with that mission as he would easily win reelection in 2010 if he does not head Interior.
Salazar's selection would ensure that Colorado will see a third competitive Senate race in the last four election cycles. Political junkies rejoice!
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