I am currently leaning toward H2 2004 or H1 2005.
what's H2 and H1?
Second half and first half.
Btw, what is [qm]?
The reason for this thread is that I watched the free PBS Frontline special on "The Choice 2008" on the PBS website, and they stated that immediately after Obama won election in 2004, Daschle's chief of staff and other senior veterans of the Senate helped him craft a "two year plan". What freshman Senator would start out with a two year plan instead of a six year plan? It's plausible that big changes in seniority were expected after 2006 which obviated the need or ability to plan for past that date, but the show further said that the two year plan was divided into the first year, where he would "keep a low profile" and the second year, where he would "increase his visibility." The only way this makes sense is if he was seriously planning for a Presidential announcement by early 2007.
Another thing, Obama's book came out in September 2006... it's clearly a "I'm gonna run for President" book. The book methodically spells out his philosophy, biography, and views in a balanced and comprehensive way. Between writing, editing and publishing, the book must have been conceived by at least late 2005.