In hindsight, Indiana going for Obama isn't that shocking (user search)
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  In hindsight, Indiana going for Obama isn't that shocking (search mode)
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Author Topic: In hindsight, Indiana going for Obama isn't that shocking  (Read 5075 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,206
India


« on: December 21, 2008, 07:32:26 AM »

* Democrats haven't seriously contested the presidential race in Indiana since 1948. At least some of the Republicans' lopsided margins came from the fact that the Democratic vote in Indiana was completely un-mobilized. Indeed, Indiana historically had one of the lowest turnouts during presidential years. It isn't unreasonable to wonder if the real Republican lean in Indiana has historically been somewhat less than R +9; with better Democratic turnout it would probably have been R +5 or R +6.
Play it safe, make that a 7.
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Quite a lot of Evangelicals in Indiana too for all that. As in, large numbers for a northern (northeastern/midwestern) state.
Which helps explain why it's the most Republican state there.
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Correct, of course.
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Check, and check (including even state capitals of similar size and location, with similar Republican traditions and similarly heavy Democratic trends in recent years!)
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Not really... unless we're talking northwestern Ohio. And, uh, southern (okay, southwestern) Michigan.

Also, note (Al spotted that ages ago) that Obama did very well in areas with a lot of (non-new) manufacturing and not a lot of poverty. Indiana has loads of country like that.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2008, 01:30:32 PM »
« Edited: December 22, 2008, 01:50:22 PM by last of the Entwives »

I think this is one state where Democrats and Obama are going to have a near impossible time replicating, unless their name is Evan Bayh.  Obama is probably the first Democrat ever to carry the state without carrying the two Southern Congressional districts(IN-08 and IN-09). 
Almost certainly, but that's largely because no Democrat has narrowly won Indiana for 120 years. And no Democrat has won it at all for 45 years.
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