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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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« on: December 26, 2008, 10:00:02 PM »

1988 is not a very good year to compare anything with. Sorry.

As there's a good chance that 2008 won't be either, maybe they fit Grin

This may well be the case on both counts.

However this does demonstrate some longer term structural trends throughout the West....

Shift of suburban West Coast regions to the Democratic Party in Seattle, Portland, SF, and metro LA. Also, shifts around the urban centers of the SouthWest in CO, NV and NM, are likely to last. We'll see how Phoenix trends over the next few cycles, but obviously '08 was an anomoly.

Trends against the Dems in some of the natural resource counties of OR, WA, and CA shows, as well as the ranching and mining areas of the Mountain West. The jury is still out on some of the more urban areas in MT, and I think the Eastern Plains trend towards the Dems is likely temporary.... the map would look even redder if it wasn't '88, when Dukakis did exceptionally well in this region for reasons previously mentioned.

I think this map does have some validity, but it is important to point out trends that are real, versus trends that are more transitory.

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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 11,450
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2008, 03:43:03 AM »


Trending looking pretty strong in NE.... especially NH & ME of course.

MN suburban swing looks sustainable as well.
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NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
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Posts: 11,450
United States


« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2008, 03:50:40 AM »

I wonder if anyone has a good explanation for the swing around NE Iowa/SE Minnesota (Rochester and surroundings) -- I also wonder whether it extends into Wisconsin.

I'm not totally sure, but I seem to recall Dukakis not doing as well in SE MN, and NE IA as the other regions of both states.

Maybe the drought didn't extend as far, or average farm size wasn't as optimal as in some regions of both states?
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