JFK Lives

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Sorry guys, I've been busy.  An update will probably come next Wednesday, when summer vacation starts.

[Psychic Octopus]

Sorry guys, I've been busy.  An update will probably come next Wednesday, when summer vacation starts.

k cool. I'm looking forward to the 1984 election.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

There will be an update Tuesday evening.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

In his 1983 State of the Union Address, President Hatfield devotes the entire speech to the economy.  He reports that, having hit a low in 1982, the economy is back on track, which he of course attributes to his own economic policies.

On January 24, Israel holds elections for the first time since 1981.  The results are a major defeat for the Likud Party, as the Alignment Party, led by Shimon Peres, retakes control of the Knesset.  Peres’ election is seen as good news for Hatfield’s proposed Israeli-Egyptian peace conference, an idea which had been rejected by Likud and Menachem Begin on multiple occasions.

In a speech on February 8, 1983, Hatfield announces that he will make preventing acid rain a major initiative.  He asks Congress to step up regulation, as well as increasing the budget for toxic waste cleanup.  In order to offset the environmental spending, Hatfield cuts spending significantly for the War on Drugs, much to the consternation of conservatives in both parties.

On February 17, the United Kingdom holds elections, with Margaret Thatcher and the Conservatives scoring a major victory.

On March 2, a report issued by the Treasury Department says that unemployment has been cut from 7.1% in February, 1981 to 5.4% as of February, 1983.  In a nationally televised speech, Hatfield trumpets the report as proof of the success of his own economic policies.

On March 19, President Hatfield receives a call from Prime Minister Peres.  He will agree to meet with Sadat in the United States, on the condition that talks start by May 31, 1983.  Hatfield calls Sadat and the next day, and they agree to start negotiations on April 4, 1983, at Camp David in Maryland.

Accompanied by their negotiating teams and with their respective interests in mind, Sadat and Begin arrive in Camp David on April 2, 1983, two days before the start of negotiations, in order to meet privately and informally, and gain a sense of the other man.

For the next ten days, talks move slowly.  By the eleventh day, the dual issues of Israeli settlement withdrawal from the Sinai and the status of the West Bank created so tense a situation that Peres and Sadat had stopped speaking to each other.  Hatfield then made the decision to salvage the agreement by conceding the issue of the West Bank to Peres, and advocate Sadat’s less controversial position on the removal of all settlements from the Sinai Peninsula.  At the same time, in a symbolic gesture, Hatfield took the two leaders to Gettysburg in the hopes of using the Civil War as a simile to their own struggle.

The plan pays off, as on April 16, 1983, Peres, Sadat, and Hatfield jointly release the two-part Camp David Accords.  The first part had three parts. The first part was a framework for negotiations to establish an autonomous self-governing authority in the West Bank and the Gaza strip and to fully implement SC 242.  The fate of Jerusalem was deliberately excluded from this agreement.  The second part dealt with Egyptian-Israeli relations, the real content being in the second agreement. The third part "Associated Principles" declared principles that should apply to relations between Israel and all of its Arab neighbors.

The second agreement outlined a basis for the peace treaty six months later, in particular deciding the future of the Sinai peninsula. Israel agreed to withdraw its armed forces from the Sinai, evacuate its 4,500 civilian inhabitants, and restore it to Egypt in return for normal diplomatic relations with Egypt, guarantees of freedom of passage through the Suez Canal and other nearby waterways (such as the Straits of Tiran), and a restriction on the forces Egypt could place on the Sinai peninsula, especially within 20-40 km from Israel. Israel also agreed to limit its forces a smaller distance from the Egyptian border, and to guarantee free passage between Egypt and Jordan. With the withdrawal, Israel also returned Egypt's Abu-Rudeis oil fields in western Sinai, which contained long term, commercially productive wells.  The agreement also called for the United States to commit several billion dollars worth of annual subsidies to the governments of both Israel and Egypt.

Following the signing of the Accords, a visibly tired President Hatfield returns to his home in Oregon for several weeks of recuperation.  On April 28, the 61 year old Hatfield is hospitalized for exhaustion, and the doctors advise him to rest for several weeks.

For the next several weeks, Hatfield takes a vacation in his Oregon home; on June 2, he returns to Washington.  In a speech the next day to Congress, Hatfield talked about his hospital stay.  “A few doors down from me was a lovely man named Roger.  He was dying, and I saw a man try to enter into his room, only to be turned away by the hospital staff.  Roger was a homosexual, and the man who was trying to see him had been his partner for more than a quarter of a century, and he was not allowed to be with his partner as his partner died.  That is not the American way.”

Hatfield asks Congress to pass a Sexual Orientation Act of 1983; the act had provisions including full custody, adoption, and visitation rights for homosexual couples.  On June 7, he signs an executive order ending the military policy of not allowing anyone who was not heterosexual to serve in the military, opening the military to everyone, regardless of sexual orientation.

From the outset, Hatfield faces intense Congressional opposition.  Within days, 29 Republican Senators announce their opposition to his plan; among those in opposition is the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Strom Thurmond (R-SC).  At the same time, though, another prominent Republican, Senator Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) announces his support of the President’s plan.

On the Democratic side, opinion is very much on the side of the President.  Except for several holdovers from the South, the entire Senate Democratic Caucus takes the side of the President; even Minority Leader Robert Byrd (D-WV), not known as an advocate of gay rights, sides with the President.

Public opinion, meanwhile, is also divided.  A Gallup poll from June 16-19 finds 48% in support of the President, 46% opposed, and 6% unsure.  Rasmussen shows similar numbers.  In response, Hatfield dispatches numerous advocates of both Parties to try and sway public opinion.  The mission pays off, and by August, Hatfield’s plan bears the support of nearly 60% of the American Public.

When Congress reconvenes in September, there is still division over the plan.  After more than six weeks of hearings, Thurmond allows the Bill to be reported out to the full Senate on October 11.  The debate on the Senate floor is acrimonious.  Throughout the debate, Senators are shouting at each other from across the aisle, and on November 22, Senator Henry Jackson (D-WA) suffers a heart attack during a shouting match with Senator Bob Kasten (R-WI).  Although Jackson recovers, the incident is a stark example of how difficult the debate is.  When the Senate recesses in December, the Bill is still on the Floor.

In his 1984 State of the Union Address, Hatfield chides the Senate for not passing his Gay Rights Bill.  “We are talking about basic human rights, and the Senate is on the wrong side of this issue,” Hatfield says.

On February 22, the big cloture vote arrives.  The results is a 67-33 victory for Hatfield, with exactly the required number.  Scoop Jackson, having not been in the Senate since his heart attack, casts the decisive vote from a wheelchair.  On March 7, by a vote of 62-32, the Senate passes the Bill, and sends it over to the House.

In the House, the legislation has a more favorable reception.  Representative Peter W. Rodino, Jr. (D-NJ), Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, comes out strongly in support of the Bill, as does Claude Pepper (D-FL), Chairman of the Rules Committee.  On March 26, the Bill is reported out of Judiciary, and on April 5, it arrives of the House floor.

The debate in the House is much more civil than in the Senate.  On May 4, by a vote of 223-212, the House passes the Bill, and on May 7, surrounded by leaders from the LGBT community, President Hatfield signs the Bill into law.

Following Hatfield’s signing of the Gay Rights Bill, he returns to Oregon for several weeks, and then officially kicks off his reelection campaign.

[Hash]

Anyways, what's the situation in France? Italy? Chile? Brazil? South Africa? Canada?

[Historico]

I was not expecting such a push on Gay Rights this early by Hatfield, but with his libertarian leanings and the rising of the aids pandemic, I think its pretty plausible. Getting Hatfield to get the treaty between Israel and Egypt will probably cement his Legacy more than anything(Like OTL Carter). I am suprised however, that with Hatfield being such a huge advocate for the nuclear freeze during OTL , that he wouldn't try to get something passed with the Soviets ITTL. Might he try to save it for his second term? cuz I think the movement lost steam in the mid to late 80's IOTL. Eagerly awaiting for the update on the '84 elections.

[LastMcGovernite]

A great continuation of a fine timeline.

I do have a question, though- before the rise of the Christian Right, Mark Hatfield was regarded as the most visible evangelical Christian in American politics.  Is the Christian Right still behind him?  How are they reacting to an evangelical at the forefront of recognizing gay rights? 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Anyways, what's the situation in France? Italy? Chile? Brazil? South Africa? Canada?

France: In 1981, Valéry Marie René Georges Giscard d'Estaing was reelected President of France, very narrowly defeating the Socialist candidate, François Mitterrand.  Mitterrand, however, is already preparing to challenge d'Estaing again in 1988, and is the leading critic of his policies.  France has been undergoing some economic troubles, with unemployment nearing 8% as of January, 1984.

Italy: Italy is basically unchanged; its recent economic issues, shared by most of Europe, led to the election of Socialist Bettino Craxi in 1983.

Chile: Chile is pretty much the same; Pinochet still holds power, although is he facing US pressure to allow more freedom.

Brazil: Basically the same as IRL.

South Africa: South Africa is pretty much the same, but the movement to end Apartheid is gaining steam very quickly, and a Revolution seems to be brewing in South Africa.

Canada: Not really different from RL; Pierre Trudeau has held power since continually since 1968, although he is starting to lose favor.

I do have a question, though- before the rise of the Christian Right, Mark Hatfield was regarded as the most visible evangelical Christian in American politics.  Is the Christian Right still behind him?  How are they reacting to an evangelical at the forefront of recognizing gay rights? 

The Christian Right movement has not yet taken shape, and is very divided, with a plurality supporting Hatfield, others calling for a new Party, and still others calling for a challenge to Hatfield for the GOP nomination.  There really is no one view of the Evangelical community at this time.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The Democratic Nomination

By the middle of 1983, candidates begin declaring for the Democratic Nomination.  The first to declare, on May 4, 1983, is Congressman Les Aspin of Wisconsin.  On May 29, Governor Dolph Briscoe of Texas throws his hat into the ring.  Despite rumors to the contrary, Senator Ted Kennedy declines to run for President, and on August 24, he endorses the incumbent Governor of Massachusetts, Michael Dukakis, who had entered on August 20.  On October 19, Senator Edward Zorinsky becomes the last candidate to enter the race.

On February 20, the Iowa Caucuses are held.  The result is a narrow win for Aspin, a surprising result.
Aspin: 34% (21 delegates)
Dukakis: 31% (17 delegates)
Briscoe: 20% (12 delegates)
Zorinsky: 15%

A week later, in the New Hampshire primary, Dukakis scores a major victory, dominating his three opponents.
Dukakis: 69% (19 delegaes)
Aspin: 14%
Zorinsky: 11%
Briscoe: 6%

On March 6, in Vermont, Dukakis records yet another landslide victory, and jumps into the frontrunner position.
Dukakis: 71% (12 delegates)
Aspin: 12%
Zorinsky: 10%
Briscoe: 7%

Following Vermont, the candidates prepare for the large set of primaries on March 13; for Zorinsky and Briscoe, they need to win multiple primaries to stay in.

Alabama: Briscoe: 48% (24 delegates), Zorinsky: 25% (11 delegates), Dukakis: 20% (10 delegates), Aspin: 7%
Florida: Briscoe: 39% (43 delegates), Dukakis: 32% (34 delegates), Zorinsky: 19% (23 delegates), Aspin: 10%
Georgia: Briscoe: 50% (41 delegates), Dukakis: 30% (22 delegates), Zorinsky: 12%, Aspin: 8%
Massachusetts: 83% (111 delegates), Aspin: 9%, Zorinsky: 5%, Briscoe: 3%
Nevada: Dukakis: 40% (5 delegates), Aspin: 27% (4 delegates), Zorinsky: 20% (3 delegates), Briscoe: 13%)
Oklahoma: Briscoe: 39% (18 delegates), Dukakis: 31% (14 delegates), Zorinsky: 23% (10 delegates), Aspin: 7%
Rhode Island: Dukakis: 63% (18 delegates_, Aspin: 20% (5 delegates), Briscoe: 10%, Zorinsky: 7%
Washington: Dukakis: 47% (33 delegates), Aspin: 27% (15 delegates), Briscoe: 18% (10 delegates), Zorinsky: 8%

Having failed to win any of the first 11 primaries, Zorinsky drops out on March 14, and endorses Briscoe.

Delegate Totals on March 14:
Dukakis: 295
Briscoe: 195
Aspin: 45

With the race apparently a two man game between Dukakis and Briscoe, the upcoming primaries are a gift for Dukakis, as they are held in Illinois, which is a winner take all state, and Connecticut, two Dukakis strongholds:
Illinois: Dukakis: 47% (179 delegates), Briscoe: 30%, Aspin: 23%
Connecticut: Dukakis: 62% (34 delegates), Aspin: 20% (12 delegates), Briscoe: 18% (8 delegates)

On April 3, the only April primaries are held, and they're big contests for all three candidates.
New York: Dukakis: 37% (94 delegates), Aspin: 33% (94 delegates), Briscoe: 30% (94 delegates)
Wisconsin: Aspin: 67% (56 delegates), Dukakis: 19% (19 delegates), Briscoe: 14%
Pennsylvania: Dukakis: 45% (101 delegates), Briscoe: 40% (84 delegates), Aspin: 15%

Delegates Totals on April 31:
Dukakis: 509
Briscoe: 373
Aspin: 195

Shortly before the Tennessee primary, Aspin decides to drop out and endorse Dukakis, giving him a seemingly insurmountable lead.  In order to convince Briscoe to drop out as well, Dukakis promises him the task of selecting a Vice President.  Briscoe agrees, and even though he wins the Tennessee primary with 57%, he endorses Dukakis for President.

At the Convention in Houston, Dukakis announces his selection of Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas as his running mate, and Bentsen delivers an excellent speech attacking the fiscal irresponsibility of the Hatfield Administration, and promising victory in November for the Dukakis/Bentsen ticket.


The Republican Nomination

Despite having approvals in the mid 60’s, President Hatfield faces a challenge for re-nomination in 1984.  On September 9, 1983, Reverend Pat Robertson, the son of former Senator Absalom Willis Robertson (D-VA), announces that he will run against Hatfield for the nomination.

Robertson attacks his fellow Evangelical Christian for not being tough enough on issues like abortion, and hits him especially hard on the Gay Rights legislation.  Robertson draws most of his support from fellow Evangelicals, and that is not nearly enough.  He draws just 32% in Iowa, 26% in New Hampshire, and just 9% in both Massachusetts and Vermont.  After getting just 44% in South Carolina, Robertson reluctantly drops out, and announces his support for Hatfield.

At the Convention in Miami, Hatfield and Bush are both re-nominated, and pledge victory in November, and a continuation of the previous 4 years’ policies.

The General Election

From the start, Hatfield has a significant lead.  The Israeli-Egyptian peace program, the economic recovery, and the Gay Rights Bill all place him leagues ahead of Dukakis.

In the debates, as well, Hatfield humiliates Dukakis, who stumbles and fumbles through each question.  Hatfield, by contrast, appears far more Presidential, and his lead only increases after each debate.

On election day, Hatfield receives one of the largest margins in the second half the 20th Century, as Dukakis holds only his home state of Massachusetts, and the District of Columbia.

Mark Hatfield/George HW Bush: 60.2% PV, 522 EV
Michael Dukakis/Lloyd Bentsen: 37.6% PV, 16 EV
Others: 2.2% PV, 0 EV

The Congressional Elections

Despite Hatfield’s remarkable landslide, the victory is more personal than Party, and the GOP actually loses seats in the House.

Senate Results

Republicans: 51 (-)
Democrats: 49 (-)

House Results
Democrats: 232 (+11)
Republicans: 203 (-11)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

County Map for 1984:

[hcallega]

OUCH!!! Poor Mikey.  Despite my "Reagan Democrat" leanings, I really admire the former Bay State Governor. I think he would have been a very solid President with his intelligence and ability to make really good executive decisions.

[hcallega]

Also, for the county maps are you just going through paint and doing it manually?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Also, for the county maps are you just going through paint and doing it manually?

Yup.

[Historico]

Well, Ill be a monkey's uncle, I was not expecting the update on the '84 election so soon lol. Neither was I expecting for Duke to get the nod, but he was the pinacle for the White Ethnics who had begun to dominate the party from the 70's and 80's so it's not suprising he would still run. Zorinsky would have been a good pic if would have had more of a national profile. Btw did Vice President Church still sucumb to pancreatic cancer as he did IOTL. I am looking forward to see what else Hatfield gets done in second term. Keep it comming

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Well, Ill be a monkey's uncle, I was not expecting the update on the '84 election so soon lol. Neither was I expecting for Duke to get the nod, but he was the pinacle for the White Ethnics who had begun to dominate the party from the 70's and 80's so it's not suprising he would still run. Zorinsky would have been a good pic if would have had more of a national profile. Btw did Vice President Church still sucumb to pancreatic cancer as he did IOTL. I am looking forward to see what else Hatfield gets done in second term. Keep it comming

Thanks you; sadly, Vice President Church did even earlier, in 1982.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

In case anyone's interested, I've uploaded the 1976 county results map into the Gallery.

[Hash]

Hmm. Seems like we forgot Elliot County again.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Hmm. Seems like we forgot Elliot County again.

No, I got Elliot County correct.

[Hash]

Hmm. Seems like we forgot Elliot County again.

No, I got Elliot County correct.

Actually, look closer. You didn't.

[YRABNNRM]

Who cares? Is one county really going to take away from your enjoyment?

Keep it up Ben.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Elliot is absolutely Democratic on this map.

[Hash]

I was referring to 1984, obviously. The blue landslide.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Damn it.  Well, I'm not perfect.  Deal with it.

[Hash]

Damn it.  Well, I'm not perfect.  Deal with it.

You made a mistake, that's all. There's no need to be aggressive.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Damn it.  Well, I'm not perfect.  Deal with it.

You made a mistake, that's all. There's no need to be aggressive.

Not being aggressive; internet can't account for tone