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jokerman
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« Reply #250 on: May 21, 2005, 04:02:44 pm »

Kucinich/Dean vs. Bush/Cheney again:





Kucinich
PV: 53%
EV: 397

Bush
PV: 41%
EV: 141
That just about explains why I wouldn't waste the money to buy this game.
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Gabu
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« Reply #251 on: May 22, 2005, 01:32:18 am »

That just about explains why I wouldn't waste the money to buy this game.

But half the fun of the game is attempting to make incredibly impossible results.  Realistic results are boring.
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Ye Olde Europe
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« Reply #252 on: May 22, 2005, 09:50:38 am »

Here we have a rather, uh, colorful result. I played the "Rising Stars - 2020" scenario with Gonzalez (Green).





Red = Democratic
Dark Blue = Republican
Light Blue = Libertarian
Green = Well, Green Wink


Michael Badnarik / Diana Devot (Libertarian)
Popular Vote: 25%
Electoral Vote: 224

Matt Gonzalez / John Eder (Green)
Popular Vote: 25%
Electoral Vote: 199

Stephanie Herseth / Harold Ford, Jr. (Democratic)
Popular Vote: 24%
Electoral Vote: 88

George P. Bush / Adam Putnam (Republican)
Popular Vote: 24%
Electoral Vote: 27


The election was tied and decided by Congress in favor of Gonzalez.
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nini2287
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« Reply #253 on: May 22, 2005, 07:52:25 pm »



1992
Bush/Quayle (myself)--47% 433 EV
Clinton/Gore--29% 70 EV
Perot/Stockdale--22% 35 EV

I might have made it an electoral sweep (outside of WV and DC) but I was socked by two major scandals (one reached power 11) with about 2 weeks to go.

Best states:
Bush--North Dakota 65.0%
Clinton--West Virginia 50.0% (DC-61.3%
Perot--Wyoming 45.0%

Worst states:
Bush--California 34.1% (I was actually leading most of the way) (DC-31.2%)
Clinton--Utah 9.7%
Perot--Tennessee 4.3%

States within 5%:
Texas-Perot over Bush (42.4%-41.4%)
Arkansas-Bush over Clinton (48.1%-46.3%)
New York-Bush over Perot (42.5%-38.4%)
Utah--Bush over Perot (47.5%-42.7%)
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Gustaf
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« Reply #254 on: May 23, 2005, 10:33:57 am »



I finally did it! Cheesy
(Without dynamism, spies or fog of war but with economy)

Perot/Stockdale: 41.2%, 45 161 274 votes, 334 EVs

Bush/Quayle: 29.7%, 32 578 468 votes, 150 EVs

Clinton/Gore: 29.1%, 31 845 576 votes, 54 EVs

Best states:

Perot:

Utah: 64.7%
South Dakota: 63.1%
Oklahoma: 62.8%
Texas: 62.1%
Washington: 60.6%

Bush:

Alabama: 53.4%
Virginia: 49.9%
Mississippi: 48.4%
North Carolina: 47.4%
Arkansas: 45%

Clinton:

Arkansas; 42.4%
Maryland: 39.3%
Georgia: 38.4%
Colorado: 37.6%
Hawaii: 37.3%

Worse states:

Perot:

Alabama: 12.2%
Arkansas: 12.4%
Hawaii: 18.3%
Georgia: 18.3%
Kentucky: 21.1%

Bush:

Rhode Island: 13.9%
Massachusetts: 14%
Vermont: 14.9%
Maine: 15.6%
Missouri: 16.1%

Clinton:

Utah: 13.1%
North Dakota: 14.5%
Alaska: 15.2%
Wyoming: 17%
Oklahoma: 17.1%

Closest states:

Tennessee: Bush v Clinton, 34.6% v 34%
Colorado: Clinton v Perot, 37.6% v 36.6%
Arizona: Bush v Perot, 37.1% v 36%
Arkansas: Bush v Clinton, 45% v 42.4%

DC was
Clinton: 68.5%
Perot: 26.5%
Bush: 4.9%
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Gustaf
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« Reply #255 on: May 23, 2005, 10:55:41 am »



Josh, here's your game:

Craddock/McCain: 50%, 270 EVs

Kerry/Edwards: 48%, 268 EVs

Badnarik/Nolan (me), 0% (400 000 votes)

The state results were pretty much along the same lines as the real 2004 results. Generally though, no states were close, witht the sole exception of West Virginia which Craddock won by 631 votes, 49% and 399 815 votes v 48.9% and 399 186 votes. Badnarik got 1.9% or 15 760 votes.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #256 on: May 23, 2005, 04:18:41 pm »

Wow, won CT but lost TN, oh well, thanks for running me. Feel free to run me in other races.. maybe some against you or whatever
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nini2287
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« Reply #257 on: May 25, 2005, 10:26:25 pm »



This is the 1860 election:
Stephen Douglas (myself/blue)-35% PV 146 EV
John Breckenridge (red)-25% PV 122 EV
John Bell (green)-20% PV 29 EV
Abraham Lincoln (yellow)-18% PV 6 EV

Best states
Douglas:
1) Michigan 76.4%
2) Rhode Island 71.2%
3) New Jersey 70.2%
4) Minnesota 69.7%
5) Illinois 64.4%

Breckenridge:
1) Texas 59.7%
2) Mississippi 57.1%
3) South Carolina 55.2%
4) Florida 53.7%
5) Arkansas 52.2%

Bell:
1) Maryland 48.0%
2) Lousiana 47.6%
3) Tennessee 46.9%
4) North Carolina 45.7% (he lost the state)
5) Virginia 44.5% (he lost the state)

Lincoln:
1) Vermont 44.7% (he lost the state, but was leading until I shot up 45 points in the polls the last week)
2) Connecticut 43.4%
3) Ohio 38.6% (lost state)
4) New York 36.3% (lost state)
5) Wisconsin 36.0% (lost state)

Worst States:
Douglas:
1) Texas 2.3%
2) Mississippi 4.0%
3) Florida 4.2%
4) Maryland 4.4%
5) Virginia 5.0%

Breckenridge:
1) Michigan 0.3%
2) Ohio 2.0%
3) Wisconsin 2.1%
3) New York 2.1%
5) Massachusetts 2.7%

Bell:
1) Wisconsin 0.0% (108 votes)
2) Minnesota 0.3%
3) New Jersey 0.6%
4) Rhode Island 0.7%
5) New York 1.0%

Lincoln:
1) Kentucky 0.0% (35 votes)
2) Arkansas 0.0% (47 votes)
2) Virginia 0.0% (47 votes)
4) Mississippi 0.0% (62 votes)
5) North Carolina 0.0% (187 votes)

Close States (Less than 5%)
Delaware-Bell defeats Breckenridge defeats Douglas (32.2%-31.6%-26.3%)
Tennessee-Bell defeats Breckenridge (46.9%-45.5%)
Maryland-Bell defeats Breckenridge (48.0%-46.3%)
North Carolina-Breckenridge defeats Bell (48.2%-45.7%)
Louisiana-Bell defeats Breckenridge (47.6%-43.6%)
California-Breckenridge defeats Douglas (33.7%-29.2%)

...forgot to add, Congress elected me President!
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nini2287
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« Reply #258 on: May 28, 2005, 11:19:15 am »

2020--Rising Stars



Melissa Hart-29% 261 EV
Bob Casey (me)-33% 251 EV
Matt Gonzalez-19% 14 EV
Michael Badnarik-17% 12 EV

Best states

Hart:
Utah 48.3%
Wisconsin 48.2%
Kentucky 47.9%
Tennessee 46.6%
North Carolina 45.7%

Casey:
DC 65.2%
Ohio 45.2%
Illinois 44.4%
New Hampshire 40.5%
Arizona 40.4%

Gonzalez:
Oregon 42.8%
Hawaii 37.1%
California 35.3%
Vermont 33.2%
Maine 31.4%

Badnarik:
Wyoming 40.4%
Montana 38.2%
Alaska 35.4%
New Hampshire 32.6%
North Dakota 32.4%

Worst States

Hart:
Hawaii 15.0%
California 15.0%
Maine 15.8%
Arizona 16.7%
Oregon 17.5%

Casey:
Alaska 16.4%
Oklahoma 20.5%
Georgia 22.7%
Alabama 23.2%
Arkansas 23.5%

Gonzalez:
Montana 3.7%
Georgia 4.8%
Utah 6.1%
South Dakota 6.7%
Nebraska 6.9%

Badnarik:
DC 3.8%
Oregon 4.1%
Vermont 6.9%
Wisconsin 7.0%
Hawaii 8.4%

Close states (<5%)
Washington-Hart defeats Casey (34.1-33.9)
Maine-Gonzalez defeats Casey (31.4-31.1)
Virginia-Casey defeats Hart (33.3-32.9) (I wasn't even close-pulled this one with last second ad blitz)
Vermont-Gonzalez defeats Casey/Hart (33.2-31.5-28.2)
Iowa-Hart defeats Casey (41.0-39.1)
North Dakota-Badnarik defeats Casey (32.4-30.3)
Pennsylvania-Hart defeats Casey (39.7-37.6)
Connecticut-Casey defeats Gonzalez (30.8-28.5)
Michigan-Hart defeats Badnarik/Casey (29.4-25.4-24.9)
Hawaii-Casey defeats Gonzalez (39.3-37.1)
California-Casey defeats Gonzalez (35.3-31.2)
Alaska-Badnarik defeats Hart (35.3-31.2)
Idaho-Casey defeats Badnarik (34.9-30.0)

And the House decided to vote for Hart to win the election Sad
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Erc
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« Reply #259 on: May 30, 2005, 03:48:04 pm »

1992:

Bush v. Clinton v. Talbott v. Marrou

Clinton got hard hit with some ridiculously large scandals early, and was essentially knocked out of the race.

Final Polls:

Bush 35 - Talbott 28 - Clinton 19 - Marrou 4 - Undecided 12



Talbott 270 - Bush 265 - Clinton 3

Talbott with a (rather) secure lead in the electoral vote despite being down 7 in the popular vote--the only "swing" for Talbott is California, which he holds securely over Clinton.

However, due to the collapse of the regular party system, things are still very much up in the air.  There are a lot of undecided voters (12%) going into election day--"Undecided" actually has the lead in two states (DC--why it's D+30, and PA--where Undecided has a 14-point lead over Bush--it should actually be D+20...)

Election Results will be up momentarily...


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Erc
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« Reply #260 on: May 30, 2005, 03:59:05 pm »
« Edited: May 30, 2005, 04:05:01 pm by Erc »

Well, no big surprises (as usual).



Clinton gained back most of the undecideds in DC...but, thanks to a strong showing by Marrou (who placed 3rd, above Talbott) still only got 64.6% of the vote.

Which means that the strongest state for any candidate in this election was not DC...but Hawaii.  70.6% for Bush.

Final PV Results:
Bush: 46,149,947 (42%): 265 EV
Talbott: 35,268,795 (32%): 270 EV  --WINNER
Clinton: 23,750,972 (21%): 3 EV
Marrou: 4,672,448 (4%).

Despite losing the PV by 10 points, Talbott somehow wins the election.

Perot does well in his states--Bush does much better in his.  The fact that there is only one state won with less than 30% of the vote (MO) in a three-way race like this is telling.

The only reasonably close state that Talbott won (within 7) was Delaware:
Talbott 42.9 - Bush 39.5 - Clinton 17.3 - Marrou 0.1

If Bush had won here, the EV count would have been 268-267-3...with Clinton winning in the House despite polling only slightly better than Perot did in the real election.  Now that would have been a sight to see.
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Colin
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« Reply #261 on: May 30, 2005, 04:16:25 pm »

Cool Erc. What is this for? Who's Talbott? What scenario is this?
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Erc
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« Reply #262 on: May 30, 2005, 04:22:25 pm »

Cool Erc. What is this for? Who's Talbott? What scenario is this?

Just the regular 1992 scenario, with Talbott (Representative from New York, see the PF Contest thread for his stats [essentially, he's me]) substituted for Perot.
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nini2287
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« Reply #263 on: May 31, 2005, 02:29:08 pm »

Rising Stars 2020



Hesreth/Obama (me)--38% 349 EV
Bush/Staples--25% 100 EV
Gonzalez/Eder--18% 41 EV
Badnarik/Default VP-forget name--17% 48 EV

Best states

Herseth:
DC 73.3%
Illinois 56.7%
Delaware 55.4%
Iowa 49.2%
California 48.0%

Bush:
Pennsylvania 40.7%
New York 39.9%
Wisconsin 38.2%
Georgia 37.7%
Florida 36.6%

Gonzalez
Oregon 51.1%
Washington 41.9%
Maine 41.3%
New Jersey 37.0%
Hawaii 34.7%

Badnarik
New Hampshire 48.4%
Wyoming 45.7%
Utah 43.4%
Nebraska 41.8%
Montana 38.1%

Close states (within 5)
Georgia-Bush defeats Hesreth (37.7-37.2)
Idaho-Bush defeats Barnarik defeats Herseth (32.6-31.9-29.4)
Ohio-Bush defeats Herseth (35.5-34.5)
New York-Herseth defeats Bush (40.3-39.3)
Alabama-Badnarik defeats Bush (30.6-29.1)
Vermont-Gonzalez defeats Badnarik (31.6-30.0)
South Carolina-Badnarik defeats Bush (35.6-33.4)
West Virginia-Herseth defeats Bush (40.2-37.2)
Alaska-Badnarik defeats Herseth (35.2-31.Cool
Colorado-Herseth defeats Bush (34.1-29.9)
Louisiana-Bush defeats Herseth (29.9-25.4)
Florida-Bush defeats Herseth (36.6-31.9)
Pennsylvania-Bush defeats Herseth (40.7-36.Cool
Montana-Badnarik defeats Bush (38.1-33.3)
Minnesota-Herseth defeats Gonzalez (32.0-27.0)
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Ye Olde Europe
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« Reply #264 on: June 01, 2005, 04:35:28 pm »

1992 without Perot:





Clinton
Popular Vote: 61%
Electoral Vote: 503

Bush
Popular Vote: 36%
Electoral Vote: 35
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Ye Olde Europe
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« Reply #265 on: June 03, 2005, 09:14:23 am »

Alternate 1992: Pat Buchanan vs. Paul Tsongas (me) vs. Ross Perot





Tsongas (D)
PV: 41%
EV: 300

Perot (I)
PV: 31%
EV: 238

Buchanan (R)
PV: 25%
EV: 0
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #266 on: June 03, 2005, 04:15:42 pm »
« Edited: June 03, 2005, 04:17:18 pm by Droll Ilikeverin »

I've been using the 'make lots of ads and then deploy them the week before the election' strategy.  Except I've also been researching strategies.

Let's just say this: Whee! Grin

(Note: I use Dynamism, because it's fun)

Monday, November 1st's polls have revealed some interesting phenomena (percentages listed Clark (Clark Change)-Bush (Bush Change)-Nolan (Nolan Change))

CA: 57 (+11)-39 (-3)-3 (+2)
NM: 52 (+12)-45 (-11)-1 (0)
KS: 53 (+18)-42 (-7)-4 (+2)
MO: 53 (+12)-44 (-11)-2 (-1)
LA: 62 (+31)-34 (-8)-2 (+1)
TN: 53 (+13)-44 (-13)-2 (0)
GA: 56 (+24)-41 (-5)-1 (0)
MI: 57 (+12)-30 (-13)-11 (+3)
IN: 50 (+15)-48 (-5)-0 (0)
MD: 67 (+27)-30 (-7)-1 (+1)
NY: 49 (+11)-45 (-11)-5 (0)
CT: 57 (+18)-34 (-5)-1 (0)
VT: 66 (+26)-28 (-10)-4 (+1)
ME: 60 (+17)-35 (-5)-3 (0)

Nolan also inexplicably gained 12 points in Arizona, bringing the total there to 42 (-3)-34 (0)-16 (+12) (Yes, somehow even though Deleware is 'Bush country', and states such as New York were 'Bush country' before the ad blitz... somehow, Arizona was 'Clark solid' Tongue

Election update is next post...

EDIT: Bush also has a 32 point lead in Minnesota Tongue
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #267 on: June 03, 2005, 05:05:24 pm »



Wesley Clark (me)-55% 407 EV
George W. Bush-41% 131 EV
Whatshisface Nolan-3% 0 EV

Best States

Clark:
(DC 89.0%)
Rhode Island 75.7%
Maryland 72.0%
New Jersey 70.2%
Massachusetts 69.6%
Washington 69.3%

Bush:
Alabama 60.2%
Alaska 59.8%
Idaho 59.6%
Mississippi 58.4%
Arkansas 57.3%

Nolan:
Arizona 20.9%
Michigan 12.3%
Vermont 7.3%
Ohio 6.2%
New York 5.7%

Worst States

Clark:
Alaska 38.2%
(tie) Idaho 38.3%
(tie) Arkansas 38.3%
Mississippi 39.0%
(tie) Alabama 39.2%
(tie) Hawaii 39.2%
Ohio 40.7%

Bush:
(DC 10.7%)
Rhode Island 22.0%
Maryland 26.3%
Vermont 27.7%
Massachusetts 28.3%
New Jersey 29.6%

Nolan:
(tie) Nebraska 0.0% (46 votes)
(tie) Delaware 0.0% (105 votes)
(tie) New Jersey 0.0% (867 votes)
(tie) Illinois 0.0% (1,937 votes)
DC 0.1% (354 votes)

Close states (<5%)
Too lazy to do %'s, but, in no particular order:
Clark over Bush: Utah, Texas, Nebraska, Montana, North Dakota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania
Bush over Clark: Nevada, South Dakota, South Carolina

Election Day Ad Blitz Switchers (Clark-Bush-Nolan)
Utah: 49.3-48.2-2.4
Montana: 50.1-49.5-0.2
North Dakota: 51.8-47.5-.5
Nebraska: 52.4-47.5-0.0
Oklahoma: 54.8-41.6-3.5
Texas: 50.7-47.5-1.6
Wisconsin: 54.8-42.9-2.2
Kentucky: 52.6-43.5-3.7
North Carolina: 51.1-47.3-1.4
Virginia: 54.3-42.7-2.8
West Virginia: 52.5-46.2-1.2
Pennsylvania: 50.0-47.7-2.2

Hooray Smiley
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nini2287
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« Reply #268 on: June 03, 2005, 10:44:42 pm »

Nice job on Utah, I didn't think that was possible
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Gabu
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« Reply #269 on: June 04, 2005, 01:10:10 am »

Nice job on Utah, I didn't think that was possible

Utah is actually surprisingly easy for a Democrat to take in President Forever, I've found.  It's @^#^ing Idaho that usually gives me trouble.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #270 on: June 04, 2005, 01:35:08 pm »

This time I wanted to see if the strategy works for 3rd party candidates... I guess it does Smiley



Howard Dean- 43%, 271 EV
George W. Bush- 41%, 267 EV
Ralph Nader (me)- 13%, 0 EV
Michael Badnarik (I finally made him Tongue)- 1%, 0 EV

The campaign was crazy.  Up until the last week or two, Dean was failing... then a nicely timed scandal and 3 debate wins gave him somewhat of a fighting chance.  The thing that put him over the top, however, was my last second ad blitz's one negative ad against Bush Cool

Dean



Best States:
(DC 67.9%)
Illinois 60.8%
Pennsylvania 58.6%
Iowa 54.9%
Wisconsin 52.5%
Tennessee 52.3%

Worst States:
Utah 18.6%
Idaho 22.5%
Alaska 22.8%
South Dakota 23.4%
(tie) Montana 24.6%
(tie) Nebraska 24.6%

Bush



Best States:
Idaho 58.5%
Alaska 57.9%
Nebraska 56.9%
New York 54.8% (?!?)
Minnesota 54.6% (?!?)

Worst States:
(DC 11.4%)
Rhode Island 21.9%
Hawaii 25.0%
Vermont 27.2%
Maine 27.6%
New Jersey 28.6%

Nader



Best States:
South Dakota 34.8%
Montana 33.7%
Rhode Island 30.8%
South Carolina 29.6%
Utah 27.6%

Worst States:
Illinois 3.8%
Florida 7.4%
Arizona 7.7%
Nevada 7.8%
Indiana 8.4%

Closest Call:
Montana; Bush 38.8-Nader 33.7-Dean 24.6-Bdanarik 2.7

Badnarik

<no map>

Best States:
Arizona 7.1%
Illinois 6.1%
Texas 5.0%
Wyoming 4.7%
(tie) Vermont 4.1%
(tie) West Virginia 4.1%

Worst States:
(tie) Delaware 0.0% (23)
(tie) South Carolina 0.0% (30)
(tie) Idaho 0.0% (258)
(tie) Connecticut 0.0% (370)
(tie) North Carolina 0.0% (617)
(tie) New Jersey 0.0% (659)
(tie) Missouri 0.0% (1,253)
(tie) Florida 0.0% (1,814)

Closest States (<5%)
Oregon: Bush 43.4-Dean 43.2-Nader 11.6-Badnarik 1.5
Washington: Dean 44.3-Bush 42.3-Nader 12.1-Badnarik 1.1

States Which Probably Switched Due To My Ad Blitz
Washington (44.3-42.3-12.1-1.1)
Ohio (47.2-40.8-11.3-0.5)
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #271 on: June 04, 2005, 02:22:21 pm »

Clark is a beast for this strategy.

Once again, I used 'The Strategy', but this time, instead of doing anti-Bush Leadership ads, I did anti-Bush Integrity ads.

Here are the changes in one week, sorted by + Clark Change (listed in +Clark/-Bush form.  bolded if they are now 'Clark country'):

Nevada +36/-13
South Carolina +36/-11
Kentucky +35/-10
Rhode Island +35/-7
Indiana +35/-6
South Dakota +34/-4
Nebraska +33/-4
Utah +32/-14
Mississippi +32/-12
Montana +32/-7
Idaho +30/-14
New Hampshire  +30/-13
Louisiana +30/-10
West Virginia +30/-5
Missouri +29/-11
Minnesota +29/-8
Tennessee +29/-6
Maryland +29/-5
Vermont +28/-28
Kansas +28/-10
Virginia +27/-27
Wisconsin +27/-18
Iowa +26/-13
Colorado +26/-11
Maine +24/-10
North Dakota +24/-8
Washington +24/-4
Arkansas +23/-12
Oregon +23/-6
Oklahoma +23/-6
Delaware +20/-10
Arizona +20/-4
New Mexico +19/-8
Alaska +19/-3
Wyoming +18/-9
Connecticut +15/-8
Alabama +11/-2

Now I'm moving Clark over to GET IDAHO Angry (Idaho, Alaska, and Alabama were the only ones not swayed to the Clark side (Clark side. Dark side.  Geddit?  Haw haw haw haw haw); Alaska and Alabama are Bush leans and Idaho's a Tossup with +1 Bush)

Oddly enough, the best Bush state right now is California :S where he is leading by 28% (60-32).
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« Reply #272 on: June 04, 2005, 02:41:51 pm »

And all that led to this rather odd map:



Clark/Clinton (me)- 57%, 479 EV
Bush/Cheney- 36%, 59 EV
Nader/LaDuke- 4%, 0 EV
Badnarik/Campagna- 2%, 0 EV

Tooooooo lazy to do the rest...

NEED FOOD Tongue
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #273 on: June 04, 2005, 08:52:01 pm »



OK, I'll stop posting now Tongue
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Gabu
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E: -4.32, S: -6.52

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« Reply #274 on: June 04, 2005, 09:27:38 pm »

And all that led to this rather odd map:



Clark/Clinton (me)- 57%, 479 EV
Bush/Cheney- 36%, 59 EV
Nader/LaDuke- 4%, 0 EV
Badnarik/Campagna- 2%, 0 EV

Tooooooo lazy to do the rest...

NEED FOOD Tongue

I think all of this proves my comment above about Idaho. Tongue
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