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  President Forever results thread... (search mode)
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Author Topic: President Forever results thread...  (Read 733913 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #50 on: January 28, 2012, 06:01:45 am »

KENNEDY V REAGAN - 1980

I started off being spanked

I had clear leads in only MN, GA, DC and MA at points, and was down by 7% in the general polls.

But in the last 3 weeks, I engaged in saturation advertising and focusing on the Rust Belt, the Northeast, the Mississippi Corridor as well as California.

I suddenly surged and in the final polls I had closed the gap to only 3%...



Kennedy/Glenn - 299EV - 43.9%
Reagan/Bush - 239EV - 44%
Anderson/Lucey - 0EV - 12.1%

I did lose the popular vote, but only by 109,000
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #51 on: February 08, 2012, 08:07:31 pm »

I decided to try Obama v Santorum... I had him pick Susana Martinez as his VP choice.

It was actually incredibly close with neither Obama or Santorum breaking 44% until the last 3 weeks, with I started to spin like crazy and saturation advertising and Obama started to pull away eventually with a 47-44% lead on election day... and this was the map.



So Obama was already at 316 EV

and when all said and done...



Obama/Biden: 405EV - 55%
Santorum/Martinez: 133EV - 44.1%
Others: 0.9%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #52 on: April 15, 2012, 08:23:27 am »
« Edited: April 15, 2012, 08:24:58 am by President Polnut »

Obama/Romney 2012



This was actually pretty close up until the last 3-4 weeks. I then turned on Romney's integrity and he fell through the floor.

Obama/Biden: 374EV - 53.5%
Romney/Haley: 164EV - 45.5%
Others: 0EV - 1%

Romney's strongest state: UT 72-27%
Obama's strongest state (DC excluded): DE 65-34%

Closest 3 states
IN: 49.3 - 49.0% (R)
MT: 50.2 - 48.8% (R)
GA: 50.8 - 48.2% (D)

3 most unexpected...
TX: 52.4 - 46.4% (R)
SC: 52 - 47% (R)
PA: 61.6 - 37.3% (D)
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #53 on: May 27, 2012, 08:35:28 pm »

It FINALLY happened!!!

I beat Reagan in 1980!!!



Kennedy/Bentsen - 324EV - 45.3%
Reagan/Bush - 214EV - 43.3%
Andersen/Lucey - 0EV - 11.4%

...closest states were NJ (R) by 0.4%, NY (R) 0.3%, CT (D) 0.9%, VA (R) 1.2% and MO (D) 1.3%
... I won CA by 6.5% Cheesy
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #54 on: July 02, 2012, 03:27:11 am »



Obama/Biden - 373EV 53.8%
Romney/Ayotte - 165EV 45.3%

It was actually a close race up until the last 3 weeks... but I started saturation advertising and started to kill Romney is all the swing states, enough to open up an offensive front by going after MO, IN, GA, MT, AZ, SC and TX.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #55 on: July 05, 2012, 06:15:33 am »



1968...

Kennedy/Muskie - 276EV - 43.2%
Nixon/Romney - 216EV - 42.1%
Wallace/Whogivesatoss - 45EV - 14.8%

I started out after a very ugly primary race against Humphrey, despite dominating him. Once the general started I only led in WV, MA, IL and PA... I never led the polls nor the electoral count... but I started getting more positive coverage and used the last week to to run two national positive ads, and it seems the undecideds broke heavily for me.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #56 on: June 05, 2013, 10:51:55 pm »

That's a pretty masturbatory result... for you Tongue 
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #57 on: August 19, 2013, 09:15:45 pm »


Yup... backwards!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #58 on: November 06, 2013, 07:48:16 pm »

Democratic primary 2008

Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Biden
Richardson
Kucinich
Dodd
Polnut - PA Gov

Obama drew first blood with a close win in Iowa, triggering Kucinich and Dodd to drop out. I won New Hampshire by 5% then proceeded to win Nevada and South Carolina - Clinton won Michigan and I won the equally useless Florida primary.

Super Tuesday was odd... Obama and I split the primaries and caucuses - I won Maine, Washington, Louisiana, Virginia, Maryland and DC... then Wisconsin and Hawaii... so you'd think I would have this locked up... then Edwards dropped out after Wisconsin, endorsing Obama. I worked to get Biden and Richardson's endorsement... but to no avail, they endorsed Obama. This all meant the tenuous holds I had across the rust belt and the remaining South was gone. I won Rhode Island and Vermont, Ohio was a sizeable Obama win and Texas was also a large loss for me.

It all came down to Clinton whose estimated 950 delegates would make all the difference... Obama won Mississippi and Wyoming... I was holding my own in Oregon, Pennsylvania - Kentucky, West Virginia and North Carolina were tied and Indiana was out of reach... unless Clinton withdrew and endorsed me.

The delegate estimates before the Pennsylvania primary were
Polnut - 1795
Obama - 1205
Clinton - 951

The week before the PA primary, I begged Clinton for endorsement - she rejected it, but offered withdrawal instead... I accepted hoping enough of her support would shift to me, but I was worried about the clear Obama momentum... I was right to be worried.

I won the PA primary 63-37% but the delegate count was now alarmingly close...
Polnut - 1994
Obama - 1957

The calendar for me looked grim... I was behind or tied in all the remaining states, except Montana and Oregon. The Clinton support surged Obama in WV, NC and put IN to bed.

IN
Obama: 66%
Polnut: 34%

NC (this state was tied before the Clinton support)
Obama: 57%
Polnut: 43%

WV (I had a small lead here before CS)
Obama: 55%
Polnut: 45%

... I was bleeding delegates... and in reality, it came down to Orgeon and Kentucky - I spent massively on ads, and sent my surrogates out in force... but

Delegate estimates
Polnut: 1976*
Obama: 1975

But Obamomentum was too much to control...

My lead in OR evaporated ...

KY (my campaigning has shifted this back in my direction... but)
Obama: 53%
Polnut: 47% ... not enough

OR (again a small Obama lead turned into a tie before... but)
Obama: 51%
Polnut: 49%

I ran hard over Montana and South Dakota... winning MN and him SD... but the damage was done...

Final delegate count
Obama: 1982
Polnut: 1969



.... our relationship was considered 'bad' I offered endorsement, which he kept refusing - so I stayed on the trail... but he finally accepted my endorsement on July 6.

It should be noted, that in raw votes - I kicked Obama's backside... 55-45%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #59 on: February 13, 2014, 06:56:04 pm »



1968

Robert F. Kennedy/Edmund Muskie - 398EV - 46.7%
Richard M. Nixon/Spiro Agnew- 101EV - 37.5%
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay - 39EV -15.8%

Interesting note - Kennedy broke 60% in MA and RI, Wallace did it in AL and Nixon didn't break 60% anywhere. Nixon's best result was 58.8% in Wyoming.

Nebraska was Kennedy's worst state where he received 22%, Nixon's was Alabama, where he received 13% and Wallace's (where he was on the ballot) was Maine, where he received 2.4% of the vote.

The closest state was South Dakota, which went to Kennedy by 265 votes, or 0.1%.

Wallace's main rival in the South was Kennedy, not Nixon, with Nixon in third place in LA, AR, MS, SC and GA (Wallace won GA 38.3% to Kennedy's 37.9%).
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #60 on: September 22, 2014, 08:40:15 pm »
« Edited: September 22, 2014, 08:55:15 pm by Senator Polnut »

Weirdest... result...

So I started in primaries in 2008... I won got off to a good start by winning IA, NH... Richardson won NV. Obama won SC, I won the empty FL primary and Clinton won MI.

Super Tuesday rolled around. I won MO, MN, TN, CA, NJ, MA... Clinton won a few things here (inc NY, but only beat me there by 2%) and there and Obama won the rest. It settled into a fairly close three-way race... all the way to late May, when Clinton dropped out an endorsed me.

In early July, I picked Obama as my running-mate.

Early on, I started to see what was going to be my problem. I was very popular in the Democratic states, not incredibly unpopular in the solid GOP states and very unsteady in the swing states. I also had a massive money advantage over Romney.

To give an example - I had 20%+ leads in CA, IL and the Northeast (except Delaware for some reason). Those leads only grew. Whereas I never had a clear lock on any of the swing states.

In the weirdest outcomes... the states that finally decided the election... were KS and AK.



Me/Obama - 267 EV  - 54.1%
Romney/Giuliani - 271 EV - 45.2%
Others - 0.7%

So behold... I won the national vote by more than 10,000,000 and lost the presidency by 365 votes in AK and 1659 in KS. I lost DE (!) by 2464 votes.

To give you an idea of how weird this was...

Texas
Romney - 53.6%
Me - 45.9%

Connecticut
Me - 74.3%
Romney - 24.8%

States with margins of below 2%
KS, AK, DE, NM, FL

States decided by 2-5%
IN, VA, WV, IA, WI, NV, CO, MI, TN

To further demonstrate... I'm going to show you polling at 4 weeks, 2 weeks,1 week and 2 days out to show you how nuts this was...

4 Weeks out


PV Polling:
Me - 49.5%
Romney - 47.5%

2 weeks out


PV Polling:
Me - 51.7%
Romney - 46.3%

- This represented a surge for Romney in the swing states and my numbers in solid GOP states moving up

One week out...



PV Polling
Me: 52%
Romney: 46%

Romney continued to slide in solid states, but we tussled for the swing states... it finally looked like I had this.

Two days out


Me: 53.2%
Romney: 45%
... you can see my frustration, I am throwing EVERYTHING at OH, FL, IA, CO and NV to swing the EC vote back to see. I can see my vote hitting the 60s in CA, IL and the mid-late 60s in MA, RI, CT and NY... but I'm down by tiny margins where it matters. And Romney was able to hold those leads and presents an election for the history books.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #61 on: October 15, 2014, 06:52:16 pm »



1948

Truman/Barkley - 276 EV - 45.1%
Dewey/Warren - 217 EV - 43.2%
Thurmond/Wright - 38 EV - 8.6%
Wallace/Taylor - 0 EV - 3.1%

Nothing I could do could help me in the west. But I over-performed in the Mid-Atlantic.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #62 on: October 22, 2015, 05:43:22 am »
« Edited: October 22, 2015, 05:45:36 am by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

2000

Gore/Shaheen
v
Bush/Cheney
v
Nader
v
Buchanan



Bizarre outcome...
Gore clearly seemed stronger in the South than reality.

Gore - 298 EV - 50.3%
Bush - 240 EV - 46.5%
Nader - 0 EV - 2.8%
Buchanan - 0 EV - 0.5%

Bush
Closest margins
LA -  0.4%
MN -  0.6%

Best states
WY - 65.6%
ID - 64.1%
UT - 64.6%

Gore
Closest states
GA - 0.0% - 78 votes
AR - 1.8%

Best states
NY - 62.8%
MA - 63.7%
RI - 64.3%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #63 on: November 11, 2015, 06:24:57 pm »

You really are young aren't you? Tongue
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #64 on: February 07, 2016, 07:39:05 am »

Bizarre... I haven't played for a while.

I ran as my character in the 2008 Dem primaries. I won IA, NH, NV and Obama won SC. Clinton won a few during Super Tuesday, but the writing was on the wall, and she withdrew and endorsed me before mini-Tuesday (OH, TX, VT and RI) which I swept.  But Obama would not give up.

I secured the nomination after winning North Carolina. I then started running national ads and the Dem numbers jumped. However, Obama didn't withdraw and refused anything short of the VP slot... so it seemed.

So I went to the convention with Obama still there... I chose Bill Richardson. The following week, the GOP chose Romney (who had secured the nomination in April) and he chose Giuliani as his running mate. Probably due to the contested nature of the Dem convention, we went through a bad patch.

Our numbers collapsed.



I got into a trough that I couldn't get out of, hit with scandals and just needed to dump money all over the shop. I picked up across the mid-west and the upper south in the last two weeks and I slipped on the west coast.

I surged in the national polls from being down 45-49 to drawing almost even 47-48.

This was the end...



I spent too much time and money in states like TX which I only lost by 2% and yes, I lost CA 1.4%

284 EV - 49.5%
254 EV - 50.5%


Romney only cracked 60% in AL and UT but I did it in MA, CT and RI. I also won VA and TN by a greater margin that I did OR, WA, PA, WI and MI.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,527
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #65 on: October 03, 2016, 05:30:49 am »
« Edited: October 03, 2016, 08:46:48 pm by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

A weird 1980 scenario... this one went down to the wire.

I was behind for a long time, got hit by scandals and bad interviews. My focus was on TX, CA, PA, WI, MO, OR and WA.



Reagan/Bush - 307EV - 45.9%
Kennedy/Bentsen - 231EV - 46.4%
Anderson/Lucie - 0EV - 7.7%

All states decided by 5% or less are in 30% shading.

Target states
TX - Kennedy +5%
PA - Kennedy +0.2%
WI - Reagan +1.1%
MO - Kennedy +0.4%
OR - Reagan +0.6%
WA - Reagan +1.2%
finally the state that decided the election
CA - Reagan +0.8%
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