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  President Forever results thread... (search mode)
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Author Topic: President Forever results thread...  (Read 723196 times)
FM Scott🦋
Ascott
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Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

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« on: July 09, 2016, 03:42:43 pm »
« edited: July 09, 2016, 03:45:01 pm by a.scott »

Cain Train Roll On, On Down the Line

Herman Cain enters the 2012 Republican primary as an underdog, with early polls showing Romney and Gingrich as the favorites.  Gingrich is able to weather a myriad of scandals and keep the map in his favor with strong debate performances, but Cain's strengths begin to show with each debate.  By November, Cain has amassed high-profile endorsements from the Bush family, Sarah Palin, and the Koch brothers, enabling him to build a lead in a handful of states.  Unfortunately for Cain, most of the states he leads in vote later, and he continues to fall in all the early states except for South Carolina (which eventually becomes out of reach, too).  By the Iowa caucuses, Romney and Gingrich remain the heavy favorites, but Cain still sees a path.  Romney pulls off a narrow win in Iowa, followed by surprise wins for Bachmann in New Hampshire and South Carolina.  Romney takes Florida and Nevada.

Shortly afterwards, Cain gets his first victories in Colorado and Minnesota.  Gingrich gets just under 50% in Maine.  After a resounding debate win, Cain pulls out a win in Arizona while Romney gets a comfortable win in his birth state, Michigan.  Texas Governor Rick Perry wins one contest: the Missouri caucuses.  On Super Tuesday, Cain and Gingrich dominate with Romney only winning the state of his political tenure, Massachusetts.  A brokered convention becomes increasingly likely with no candidates dropping out.  For Cain and Gingrich, Romney could be the kingmaker.

Eager for a Romney endorsement, Cain ceases all negative campaign activity against Romney, directing those resources to stopping Gingrich, who leads in the delegate count by 100 delegates.  Cain pulls out crucial last-minute victories in Illinois, Maryland, DC, and Wisconsin - all states that he had been behind either Gingrich or Romney up until election day.  Cain sweeps the Northeastern primary states and shocks the GOP by winning Indiana and North Carolina, where Gingrich had seemingly insurmountable leads through the campaign season.  (Indiana was the closest contest, with Cain just barely overtaking Gingrich in a clear 42-42 tie.  He won all the state's delegates.)

Romney finally drops out, having ignored Cain's (and presumably, Gingrich's) weekly appeals for his endorsement.  Bachmann and Santorum endorse Gingrich.  Nobody cares about Huntsman.

Cain continues to win the smaller states (minus Arkansas) leading up to Texas, which he wins handily.  After a stunning upset in California and New Jersey, Cain earns enough delegates to become the nominee.  Gingrich only wins one other contest: Utah.



The convention vote goes as follows:
Businessman Herman Cain of Georgia - 1256 delegates
Fmr. Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia - 891 delegates
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts (dropped out) - 139 delegates
Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota - 0 delegates
Governor Rick Perry of Texas - 0 delegates
Congressman Ron Paul of Texas - 0 delegates
Fmr. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania - 0 delegates
Fmr. Ambassador Jon Huntsman of Utah - 0 delegates

*Most states shaded >30% were actually in the high 20s.  There's little wonder that most of the candidates opted to stay in until the final weeks.

Citing his need for a running mate with Washington experience (as well as superior debate skills to counter Biden), Cain selects Gingrich to be his running mate.

(Cain makes the controversial decision to change his state of residence to Nebraska, to avoid constitutional challenges to the ticket.)

This is where I reset the game, because for some reason I always start off with an impossible map in the general for 2012.  Cheating?  Maybe a little.


In the general election, Cain forfeits a federal block grant.  Obama begins with a modest lead in the polls.  The campaign is close until the end.  Cain narrowly wins two of three debates, and Gingrich smashes Biden in the VP debate.

This is the map on election night:



Businessman Herman Cain of Nebraska and former Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia - 288 EVs, 52.6%
President Barack Obama of Illinois and Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware - 247 EVs, 47.4%
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
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Posts: 10,541
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Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2016, 12:45:48 am »

2008: Bayh's Turn

The 2008 Democratic Primary was always going to be an uphill battle for little-known maverick Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana.  Even after getting his first major campaign endorsement from Illinois Senator Barack Obama, who was widely expected to enter the race before opting to remain in the Senate, Bayh's campaign would see little traction before the first several debates.  His main rival?  Hillary Clinton, who was determined to stay in to the end.

But despite early states' polls going in other candidates' favor, Bayh defied all expectations with his monumental win in the Iowa caucuses, followed by a close second showing in New Hampshire, where just two points sat between him and John Edwards, the charismatic former North Carolina senator and 2004 Vice Presidential candidate.  Bayh scored a second narrow victory in Nevada, where Clinton had led by as much as fifty points weeks before, only to come under a deluge of scandals in the final days.

Still, Clinton was victorious on Super Tuesday, although Bayh again defied expectations with narrow victories in several key Midwestern states.  Edwards was not far behind.  After losing several states, Bayh's path to the nomination started to look bleak, just before making a heavy comeback in winning Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island.  Eventually, most other candidates would drop out and endorse Clinton.

A brokered convention appeared almost certain.  At this point, Edwards had no real path to the nomination on his own, even as polls had him well ahead in several upcoming contests, especially his home state.  But, shortly after Bayh claimed a narrow win in the hotly contested Pennsylvania primary, Edwards dropped out and endorsed him, effectively guaranteeing him the nomination.  The following Tuesday, Bayh swept through Indiana and pulled out a narrow victory in North Carolina.

By now, the Democratic nomination was all locked up, with Republicans John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee all still in a very tough race for their party's nomination.  Still, Clinton was able to pick off big wins in Nebraska and West Virginia, prompting Bayh to select her as his running mate in effort to unify a deeply divided party.  After the last contest, Bayh finished in the popular vote with just a 32% plurality, followed by Clinton with 30%.


Convention vote:
Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana - all delegates
Senator Hillary Clinton of New York - 0 delegates
Former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina - 0 delegates
Senator Joe Biden of Delaware - 0 delegates [only carried his home state in primaries]
Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico - 0 delegates




The Republicans consolidated around John McCain, who picked former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson as his running mate.  The stock market crash, in conjunction with superior debating performances and bipartisan endorsements, kept Bayh well ahead throughout the campaign.  He goes on to win the general election in a landslide.


Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana and Senator Hillary Clinton of New York - 417 EVs, 57.8%
Senator John McCain of Arizona and former Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee - 121 EVs, 39.7%
Former Congressman Bob Barr of Georgia and Mr. Wayne Root of Nevada - 0 EVs, .9%
Mr. Ralph Nader of Connecticut and Mr. Matt Gonzalez of Texas - 1.6%
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,541
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2016, 12:49:48 am »

2008: Old Rivals

Vice President Dick Cheney had everything against him when he entered the presidential race.  His announcement came as a surprise to many, with the lagging economy and Cheney's health cited as reasons he would not enter the race, or trivialize Republican chances of holding onto the White House if he did.  Despite these concerns, Cheney quickly rose to frontrunner status in the primary.  Though he pulled off a much closer-than-expected win in his home state Wyoming caucuses, his subsequent victories in Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida kept the map in his favor.  By the end of the Texas/Ohio/Vermont/Rhode Island primaries, Cheney was the presumptive nominee.  His opponents dropped out shortly after.


Vice President Dick Cheney of Wyoming (winner)
Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York
Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas



With an uphill battle for the general ahead, Cheney, desperate for centrist voters, picked independent senator, and former rival, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, for his running mate in what many saw as a potential game-changer.  Delaware Senator Joe Biden just barely edged out Illinois Senator Barack Obama, and chose Virginia Governor Tim Kaine as his running mate.

Cheney spent much of the general election attacking Biden for his integrity, as he was previously forced to suspend an earlier presidential campaign after he was caught plagiarizing a speech.  But, with the stock market crash, Biden led through most of the campaign.

Cheney's saving grace this election would be an unexpected scandal involving Biden and a live boy.  Cheney pulled out a victory with the most illogical of results:



Vice President Dick Cheney of Wyoming and Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (Republican) - 293 EVs, 51.1%
Senator Joe Biden of Delaware and Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia (Democratic) - 245 EVs, 46.2%
Former Congressman Bob Barr of Georgia and Mr. Wayne Root of Nevada (Libertarian) - 0 EVs, .8%
Mr. Ralph Nader of Connecticut and Mr. Matt Gonzalez of Texas - 0 EVs, 1.9%
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,541
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Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2016, 06:21:23 pm »

Edwin Edwards joke.
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 10,541
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Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2016, 05:01:49 am »

Clinton's basically impossible to beat in the primary for 2016, isn't she?
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
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*****
Posts: 10,541
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Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2016, 09:16:13 pm »

I'm creating on a P4E 2016 scenario featuring only third-parties, which as of now includes the Libertarians, Greens, Constitutionists, and Socialists, but might include more.

Can't wait to finish it.  Gonna be YUGE.
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,541
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2016, 11:50:28 pm »

I'm creating on a P4E 2016 scenario featuring only third-parties, which as of now includes the Libertarians, Greens, Constitutionists, and Socialists, but might include more.

Can't wait to finish it.  Gonna be YUGE.
For the old or new version?

I'm actually editing a really old scenario for '16 for P4E2008. It had Linda Lingle and Sean Parnell as candidates Tongue. I'm adding the actual 2016 candidates. The scenario also has a Gary Johnson candidacy polling at 9%. I thought that was really lame in 2013 when I first downloaded the scenario. Now it maes sense.

New version.  I had to buy the new one after I got my new laptop.

Img
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,541
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2016, 07:51:12 pm »

Version update: My thing crashed in the middle of election night when I tested (i.e. skipped through) a Johnson/Stein race

RIP Sad
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,541
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2016, 11:09:32 pm »
« Edited: August 14, 2016, 11:11:06 pm by a.scott »

2000



Senator Paul Wellstone of Minnesota and Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin (Democratic) - 276 EVs, 51.8% PV
Congressman John Kasich of Ohio and Governor John Engler of Michigan (Republican) - 262 EVs, 46.2% PV
Ralph Nader/some guy (Green) - 0 EVs, 1.2% PV
Pat Buchanan/some guy (Reform) - 0 EVs, 0.9% PV

Polls are tight throughout the race, with final polls showing Wellstone comfortably ahead of Kasich in the popular vote but an even contest in the electoral college.  A last-minute momentum boost and Kasich scandal propel Wellstone to victory.

Closest states are Arkansas (1,432 vote difference) and New Hampshire (3,973 vote difference).  (Thanks, angry NH women!)
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,541
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2017, 12:49:51 am »

I played a custom 2016 scenario as McMullin with the only goal of winning Utah.  I pulled off an upset in Utah (with the last poll showing Trump ahead there) and was able to throw the election to the House, which elected Trump.

Img
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,541
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #10 on: June 03, 2018, 08:04:12 pm »

It is way too easy to landslide Bush in this scenario.  I might make a few adjustments for that.
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,541
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #11 on: June 10, 2018, 02:00:26 pm »
« Edited: June 10, 2018, 02:06:04 pm by Free Speech Hawk🦋 »

Coming from behind in the Electoral College (while leading in the popular vote), the Midwest-based Harkin/Kerrey ticket defeats Bush/Quayle in a landslide, ushering in a new era of populist politics (and effectively killing DLC influence!).

Img


Closest state was Michigan (45% - 44.9% - 10.1%).

Bush came third in Alaska and California.
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,541
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2018, 07:02:58 pm »

1992 - Bush reelected over Clinton/Gore

Img


Closest state was Missouri (39.7% - 39.6%)
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,541
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2018, 09:08:43 pm »

Plugging this here: now you can play my second PI scenario, the 2018 Texas Senate election.
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,541
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #14 on: January 09, 2019, 01:59:57 am »

Just published my third scenario: the 2017 Alabama Senate election.

You can play either as Doug Jones on the Democrat side or one of the three serious Republicans that ran: Luther Strange, Mo Brooks, and of course, Roy Moore.  Scandals apply.

No primaries in this version, but I'll create one for the Republicans if enough people like the scenario.
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FM Scott🦋
Ascott
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,541
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -6.43

P P
« Reply #15 on: February 03, 2019, 08:33:34 pm »

1992 as Gore/Clinton again.  First the primaries:

Img


Harkin barely holds Iowa against Kerrey.

Img


Buchanan randomly wins >60% over Bush in the California primary - his only primary win.

Img


And Gore wins Wyoming by double digits - knocking Bush to third place while losing New Jersey.  Seems legit.

Img


The scenario might not work for people who have the newest version of PI.  I've been told on Discord that it crashes after Iowa.
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