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  President Forever results thread... (search mode)
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Author Topic: President Forever results thread...  (Read 747685 times)
Vepres
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Posts: 8,033
United States
« on: May 19, 2009, 09:19:44 pm »
« edited: May 19, 2009, 09:22:11 pm by Vepres »

Although I didn't like some of his more extreme positions, I always found Ron Paul's rapid growth in popularity followed by a rather poor performance (given the amount of money at his disposal) interesting. I decided to run a game as him. The primaries were easy as he swept all the early primaries. After Super Tuesday, his only contender was Rudy Giuliani, who won all the primaries from Pennsylvania on, though he still lost. Ron Paul had a huge lead over Hillary Clinton until the last few weeks, when the gap closed, which led to this map.



Ron Paul: 53.2%, 285 Ev's
Hillary Clinton: 46.8%, 253 Ev's

A 0.5 percent swing in Pennsylvania would've given Hillary the victory. Overall, Paul was a weak candidate in the electoral college in this game.
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2009, 11:11:17 pm »

Very bizarre map.



McCain/Palin 49.2%, 345 EVs
Obama/Biden 49.5%, 193 EVs
Barr/Root 1.3%, 0 EVs

The polls were totally wrong. I had a comfortable lead in Texas on election night, yet I never expected to win New Jersey.
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2009, 05:27:02 pm »

^^^
How did you manage to get 60% in Louisiana? It's always extremely close when I play. It's actually not too bizarre, since all of those states are somewhat close at the beginning of the game, except Texas.

I have no idea how this happened. The polls suggested a conventional map on election day. I think it was my last minute rush of national ads that affected some areas more than others (the polls showed Obama with an edge).
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2009, 10:14:31 pm »

Major glitch. I ran as Ruwart. Will only post map, but I received almost 20% of the vote.Romney/Lieberman won the popular vote by 3% over Vislack/Richardson, but lost the electoral vote. Like, 25% were undecided on election day.



What version were you playing? Regular or Wonk?
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Vepres
YaBB God
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Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2009, 10:33:42 am »

I was playing Regular.
It was weird, because barnstorming could give you like, +30% sometimes in states, and PAC ads could be -30% or something like that for you.
I didn't even really campaign in Florida. I stopped there once. I spent most of my time in Alaska, but still lost it.
Huh

Hmm... I personally prefer the wonk version because the results seem to be more realistic. Mind you, it's very hard to win as a Republican in that scenario vs. Obama.
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2009, 04:08:28 pm »

I think so.

just to get this out of the way, a list of all who's in my "Atlas Forever 2008" scenario(for now)

Democrats
Ben Constine
Scott Moore
Gal-Male L'Hermine
Vince Pilar
Jack Polnut
Evan Gutierrez
M.J.P. McShan
Jesse Wedewer
Naveed Chowdhury
Joshua Sanchez

Republicans
Brett Valmont
David Coppersmith
Santiago Drexler
Chris Soult
Isaac Bahney
Daniel Smith
John Smith
Vepres Moratlis

Independent
Connor Flynn

Libertarian
Michael Badnarik

Could you post the primary maps next time as well?

Make sure the state percentages are all equal, though give a home state advantage.
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2009, 05:56:25 pm »

I think so.

just to get this out of the way, a list of all who's in my "Atlas Forever 2008" scenario(for now)

Democrats
Ben Constine
Scott Moore
Gal-Male L'Hermine
Vince Pilar
Jack Polnut
Evan Gutierrez
M.J.P. McShan
Jesse Wedewer
Naveed Chowdhury
Joshua Sanchez

Republicans
Brett Valmont
David Coppersmith
Santiago Drexler
Chris Soult
Isaac Bahney
Daniel Smith
John Smith
Vepres Moratlis

Independent
Connor Flynn

Libertarian
Michael Badnarik

Could you post the primary maps next time as well?

Make sure the state percentages are all equal, though give a home state advantage.
Sure to the primary maps and also I already do an equal field and an + for home states.

Cool
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2009, 05:00:43 pm »

Andy, could you run the same four democrats vs. Moratlis, Bahney, Drexler, and Coppersmith.
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2009, 03:49:29 pm »

*After a long struggle, all three remaining candidates were about even in polls but Moratlis fell short in the Convention balloting and threw his backing behind Bahney over Coppersmith. Bahney would then choose Moratlis as his VEEP nominee for his support and to unite the party.

That's actually what I would do. The game can read minds. Shocked

Another run through with my "Atlas Forever 2008" scenario.



(R)-Moratlis/Hagel: 335 EV 49.1%
(D)-Polnut/Kerry: 203 EV 46.1%
(I)-Flynn/Chafee: 0 EV 4.1%
(Li)-Badnarik/Brown: 0 EV 0.7%

This is actually along the lines I would have expected.
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2009, 08:00:59 pm »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow
I am touched that you would endorse me over Jewishconservative. Thank you, my friend. Smiley

I think anybody would pick you over Jewishconservative. Wink
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2009, 08:35:36 pm »

Do you think you could run Moratlis/Richardon vs. Me/Romney, with Moratlis as a Democrat?
Sure man.

The campaign began as Governor Bahney ran above Governor Moratlis by one point, though at the 7th week point, Bahney would increase the lead by 2 points. At the 6th week a big gaffe made by Moratlis on Same Sex Marriage, engulf the entire week. After bouncing back, Moratlis and Bahney were even about in polls and a more negative campaign began by the Bahney camp would draw criticism. During the 5th week, polls had Bahney at 42% and Moratlis at 41%, come the VEEP debate, Romney "Triumphed" in the debate over Richardson and as Bahney had done during the first presidential debate as well. Scandal soon enveloped the Moratlis campaign during the 3rd week and brought him down in polls as Bahney slowly increased his lead. Finally though, Moratlis had a payoff as Moratlis won one of presidential debates but the polls remained static. Bahney's campaign began to have scandals of it's own as his lead was at the time at 6 points over Moratlis. The lead up to Election Day had remained about the same, Bahney at 47% and Moratlis at 41%. The final day before Election Day was forecasting a Bahney victory as more of the Democratic states and Colorado seemed to be in Moratlis corner as most to all of the tossup's were in Bahney's corner.



(R)-Bahney/Romney: 392 EV 53.6%
(D)-Moratlis/Richardson: 146 EV 45.1%
(Li)-Badnarik/Brown: 0 EV 1.3%

Well, at least I won my home state.
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2009, 07:22:57 pm »



Now that I know what I'm doing, I did an Edwards v. Gingrich rematch, and barely won 281-257. Gingrich narrowly carried Oregon with 7000, and Tennessee by 20,000 or so. Edwards narrowly held onto California, by about 1.5%, and carried Connecticut with less than 2000 votes. A screwy map, but I'm glad I finally won.

I still find it hilarious you lost Hawaii Tongue

I find it hilarious how the 08 scenario is based so much off the 04 numbers. (I.E. California and Hawaii can easily fall into the swing column and Indiana is almost as red as Wyoming and Idaho.)

Do you have the wonk version, it's far more accurate.
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2009, 11:54:24 pm »

Bush v. Lieberman     2004 Election

I played as Lieberman. Lieberman barely won a hotly contested primary. He was far behind all the way, and despite a very effective ad blitz the last week, the results were still poor.

He only won DC, New York, and Rhode Island. The last two were won by less than 2 percent.
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2009, 01:55:31 pm »

1980: I ran as George Bush. The whole primary Bush was tied with Reagan in delegates. However, a string of wins in April gave Bush the edge, and he went on to win the nomination.

Carter slaughtered Kennedy, with Kennedy only winning one state.

Due to the primary, Bush was behind the whole time, and never came close to victory. Despite superior debating skills, Bush lost both debates.

Carter wins in a landslide:



Carter: 45,951,609     56.4%
Bush: 35,463,321     43.6%

Lightly colored states were won by less than a 5% margin.
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2009, 10:08:53 pm »

1980: I ran as George Bush. The whole primary Bush was tied with Reagan in delegates. However, a string of wins in April gave Bush the edge, and he went on to win the nomination.

Carter slaughtered Kennedy, with Kennedy only winning one state.

Due to the primary, Bush was behind the whole time, and never came close to victory. Despite superior debating skills, Bush lost both debates.

Carter wins in a landslide:



Carter: 45,951,609     56.4%
Bush: 35,463,321     43.6%

Lightly colored states were won by less than a 5% margin.

Damn.

What happened in New York, though?

Bush won by roughly 5%. I think it's because it was a pivotal state in the primaries and so he campaigned there a lot.
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2009, 10:07:15 pm »
« Edited: August 02, 2009, 10:09:26 pm by Midwest Lt. Governor Vepres »

2008 Wonk Edition

I ran myself to see what would happen. I glided to the GOP nomination. Despite losing tons of momentum during the the financial meltdown in September and October, I was still able to get a respectable loss.



Light states were won by less than a 5% margin.

Obama: 67,089,276     52%      329 EVs
Morton: 61,931,018     48%      209 Evs

My lack of appeal with evangelicals hurt me in the south. I basically spent the whole general election behind, and a lot of my time was spent trying to hold the southern states. I failed in a few, Kentucky and Louisiana, and Mississippi and Alabama were won by <1%. I was surprisingly strong in the more urbanized southern states.  Washington and Oregon were swing states the whole time which was odd.
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2009, 09:56:58 pm »

I'm still trying to beat Carter in the primaries in 1980 with Kennedy on hard mode. Very hard. I can only image what the general election would be like after the bruising primary.
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Vepres
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Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2009, 10:56:57 am »

In my experience, Carter's virtually unbeatable in the primaries because of the Iran thing.

I know, I've been trying. I'm sure it's possible though.
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2009, 05:29:31 pm »

A strange and very very narrow comeback after trailing in the polls for weeks on end as WJB in the 1896 election.

Polling on day before election:


Actual outcome:


Democrat William Jennings Bryan of Nebraska/ Arthur Sewall of Maine - 225 electoral votes, 47.9% popular vote

Republican William McKinley of Ohio/ Garret Hobart of New Jersey- 222 electoral votes, 48.3% popular vote

National Democrat John Palmer of Illinois/ Simon Buckner of Kentucky- 0 electoral votes, 2.1% popular vote

Prohibitionist Joshua Levering of Maryland/ Hale Johnson of Illinois- 0 electoral votes, 1.7% popular vote

That looks a lot like 2004 with the colors and parties flipped.
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2009, 10:20:59 am »

Ran Moratlis and L'Hermine against each other in "Atlas Forever".



(D)-Sen. Gael-Malo L'Hermine, VT/Gov. Bill Richardson, NM: 400 EV, 52.2%
(R)-Gov. Vepres Moratlis, CO/Fmr Gov. Jeb Bush, FL: 138 EV, 45.6%
Others: 0 EV, 2.1%

Illinois is so out of place.
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2009, 01:59:59 pm »

Just ran a very fun 1992 game. I played as Perot.

Bush led for most of the election, with Clinton only leading the week of the Democratic convention.  Perot was in third until late-September, when he tied with Clinton for second. Near the end I made a push to get Perot to win California and New York, and came very close in both. Bush only beat out Perot in California by 12,000 votes.



George H. W. Bush: 413 EVs/38.4%, 42,292,438
Ross Perot: 70 EVs/30.7%, 33,825,187
William J. Clinton: 55 EVs/30.9%, 33,979,239

Perot was <2% away from winning Utah, Wyoming, California, Montana, and Missouri.
Perot was <5% away from winning Colorado, New Hampshire, Connecticut, New York, Delaware, and Kansas.
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2009, 05:15:26 pm »

Ah, 1996. All things considered, a pretty dull election. Clinton should win this one easily, with a predictable electoral map and wait what the hell-

Image Link



Image Link




Woah!
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Vepres
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*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2009, 10:50:06 pm »

The continuation of the "Everyone In" for my "Atlas Forever" scenario Vepres requested.



Vince Pilar, CO/Wesley Clark, AR: 56.4% 505 EV
Vepres Moratlis, CO/George Pataki, NY: 42.6% 33 EV
Michael Badnarik, TX/Mary Ruwart, TX: 1% 0 EV

What's with me winning Illinois?
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #23 on: December 14, 2009, 05:17:32 pm »

2008 - enhanced



Look familiar? Tongue

Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)/Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) - 364 electoral votes and 72,146,897 (54.9%) popular votes
Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK) - 174 electoral votes and 55,203,953 (42.0%) popular votes
Others (Barr, Baldwin) - 3% of the popular vote

That's so unrealistic! What kind of mediocre simulation is this!
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Vepres
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,033
United States
« Reply #24 on: July 25, 2010, 04:35:00 pm »

Played the 2000 scenario as McCain starting in the primaries. Ran against Gore in the general, and got a very strange result:


Gore/Shaheen   50,913,992 (47.2%)   294 EVs
McCain/Pataki  52,380,150 (48.5%)   244 EVs
Nader/LaDuke   4,614,778 (4.3%)   0 EVs

McCain won the popular vote, yet lost the electoral college. Just like Gore in real life, McCain was behind for all the general election, and then pulled back into contention in the last two weeks. I probably could have won it had I been more targeted in which states I advertised in, instead of a broad strategy with 20-some states.

Nader performed very well, which is why McCain managed to win Vermont with 45.5% of the vote (Nader won 11.1% of the vote).

Closest States
Illinois (+0.3%)
Florida (+0.3%)
Kentucky (+0.8%)

Virginia (+1.1%)
Washington (+1.3%)

Vermont (+2.1%)
Mississippi (+2.8%)

Pennsylvania (+2.9%)
Arizona (+3.0%)
New Mexico (+3.2%)

Arkansas (+3.3%)


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