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  President Forever results thread... (search mode)
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Author Topic: President Forever results thread...  (Read 733651 times)
Gustaf
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E: 0.39, S: -0.70

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« on: September 24, 2004, 11:26:22 am »

Had to get those off my chest, and couldn't find the old thread... Sad



A blowout that could have been even better. Kerry/Clarke v Bush/Cheney. PV was 54-46 to myself. I won Kansas by a margin of 13 points, 56-43.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2004, 11:50:28 am »

Ran as Gore/Clark v Bush/Cheney. Was very close until the final days. I hit him with a power 3 scandal which he immiediately spun away. With only a day or so left I wrecked his base completely digging into the South opening up leads in NC, VA and TX. The tossups in those final days were: New Mecixo, New Jersey, Texas, Georgia, Minnesota, Ohio, Lousiana and Arkansas. I won 5 of those.

In total, I won the PV 53-47 and the EV 419-119.


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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2004, 04:37:00 pm »



Clark/Kerry v Bush/Cheney.

I ran out of funds in the final days... Sad

Losing Texas by a mere point was rough...I also lost South Carolina and Mississippi by very narrow margins.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2004, 09:41:55 am »



I always thought it was impossible to lose with Powell, but this one was damn close...I was hit by a power 8 Scandal in the final days, ran out of money with a day or so left, Kerry won all the debates, the PV was more or less a tie, Kerry won almost all of the tossups by substantial margins, my ads weren't that good...but I still managed to win.

CA, CT and IN were all decided by less than 2 points.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2004, 11:58:24 am »



One of my better results ever.

Edwards/Clark v Bush/Cheney.

One of the keys to this win were huge debate wins which meant a lot of momentum on issue familiarity. I won the pv 53-47. No scandals in the campaign at all.

Closest states:

Minnesota, Edwards 51-49

Wisconsin: Edwards 51-49

South Carolina: 51-48

Kansas: 51-48

California: 51-48

Best for Edwards:

DC: 86%

Maine: 72% (!)

West Virginia: 64%

Mississippi: 63% (!!)

Oregon: 62%

Best for Bush:

North Dakota: 72%

WYoming: 66%

Idaho: 66%

Utah: 65%

Montana: 64%



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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2004, 01:55:55 pm »



I tried to do a game that would be similar to the actual race. So, Kerry/Edwards v Bush/Cheney for starters.

Then I let Kerry run on Military Intervention, Public Health Care and Leadership. I also researched PHC. I focused more on the battlegrounds than I usually do as well. The result was pretty good, as you can see above... Wink
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,423


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2004, 04:20:28 am »

You make a map on the EV-calculator on this site. Then you right-click somewhere on the map, go to properties and copy the url. You insert it between img and /img in brackets and post. Smiley

In real life, what would people say are the theme issues for Kerry and Bush respectively?

My feelings so far:

Kerry:

Leadership-Kerry

Military Intervention-Attacking Bush

Public Health Care-Kerry

Least sure about the last issue, several could qualify here. Leadership is meant to be Vietnam, purple hearts etc.

Bush:

Leadership-Bush

Terrorism-Bush

Leadership-Attacking Kerry
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,423


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2004, 04:42:08 pm »

You make a map on the EV-calculator on this site. Then you right-click somewhere on the map, go to properties and copy the url. You insert it between img and /img in brackets and post. Smiley

In real life, what would people say are the theme issues for Kerry and Bush respectively?

My feelings so far:

Kerry:

Leadership-Kerry

Military Intervention-Attacking Bush

Public Health Care-Kerry

Least sure about the last issue, several could qualify here. Leadership is meant to be Vietnam, purple hearts etc.

Bush:

Leadership-Bush

Terrorism-Bush

Leadership-Attacking Kerry

Kerry's third main issue is bashing Bush over the economy, not really classifiable here. I'd go with Personal Tax he has the center-left position.

Yeah, I know that, but as you yourself point out it isn't classifiable. I started doing free trade a while, since that sort of encompasses out-sourcing.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2004, 04:49:20 pm »

Ran the race again, this time made it even more realistic, with Bush going more for news spinning and ground game, Kerry more for endorsments and barnstorming, etc. I also included the other candidates.

This one was really tight, Bush led in the EC throughout the entire campaign whereas the PV was tied.



PV: Kerry won the 2-party vote 50.2-49.8

EV: Kerry won 280-258

Closest states were Nevada, Tennessee, New Hampshire, Maryland, Virginia, Vermont, North Carolina, West Virginia and Florida.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2004, 06:28:54 pm »



Kerry: 51.09%, 274

Bush:  48.91%, 264
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2004, 07:39:44 pm »

Removed dynamism for those last games, btw.



Kerry won the PV 52-48 and the EV 311-227.

Bush was lucky winning a lot of squeakers...New Hampshire, Georgia, West Virginia and Colorado for instance.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2004, 12:50:01 pm »



PV: Kerry wins 51-49

EV: Kerry wins 347-191
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2004, 04:56:58 pm »



Here you go, BRTD. Wink

Another one of those real-life-like matchups...Bush sprung a medium scandal on Kerry and won the 2nd debate...I'm suprised Kerry actually managed to get as close as he did in the end. The tossups in the end were CA, OH, WV, MN and NV I think. The closest states were WI, NV and OH.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2004, 04:37:53 pm »



Kerry ran with free trade/Kerry as his 3rd theme. Bush ran on Leadership/Bush, Integrity/Attacking Kerry and Terrorism/Bush.

PV:

Kerry: 48.52%

Bush: 46.24%
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #14 on: November 09, 2004, 05:42:03 pm »



I played as both Bush and Kerry trying to mimick the actual campaign...Kerry did a flip-flop on free trade to move in a populist direction. His ad production got delayed and the debate was drawn...Bush got a lot of momentum and Kerry never recovered. In the end the PV remained pretty close, Bush winning by close to 4 points, but carrying almost all the close states and getting 400 EVs.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #15 on: November 10, 2004, 04:02:13 pm »



As an experiment I tried to create the worse possible Democratic ticket and run it as good as I could against the best possible Republican ticket. I decided on Powell/Rice v Sharpton/Lieberman. I won with SHarpton, but only narrowly after winning the debates. PV was Sharpton roughly 51-48...so this was sort of the reversed of the real result.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #16 on: November 23, 2004, 06:14:25 pm »



Dean/Gephardt v Bush/Cheney, me running Dean. I included Nader and Browne too. No dynamism.

I kicked ass, basically. And with a positive campaign only and one debate tied. No idea how it happened really. Dean won the PV 51-45 and Bush was lucky to get away with as many EVs as he did.

Closest states were:

VA: Bush by 0

AR: Bush by 0

WV: Bush by 1

TN: Dean by 1

I'm very proud of coming within 3 points in Texas and 2 points in Georgia. Smiley

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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2005, 12:37:28 pm »

It's funny looking back at the preprogrammed numbers for this election and seeing what the authors assumed the situation in states like West Virginia and Vermont was.

Very true. Moreover, it's interesting to look at their gauge of the candidates. I'm beginnign to change these around now. What do you think the real stats should be? I lowered Kerry's charisma and leadership one step each. I also lowered Edwards debating skill to 3 and his charisma to 4. (5-5 there was just way out there...)
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2005, 03:19:18 pm »

I won comfortably as Carter, playing without Anderson though.

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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #19 on: March 20, 2005, 10:14:45 am »

Played a standard left v a standard right candidate (I was the libertarian flip-flopping numerous times and otherwise doing nothing) to see how it would turn out. The result:



James Right/Colin Powell: 51% of the vote and 264 electoral votes

John Left/Joseph Lieberman: 48% of the vote and 274 electoral votes

Closest state was New Hampshire which Left won by about 3 points. The first debate was a draw, the 2nd Left won and the 3rd RIght won. Left won strictly due to campaigning in the right states though.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #20 on: March 25, 2005, 12:09:05 pm »



This is my best result ever with Kerry/Edwards v Bush/Cheney v Nader/Camejo v Badnarik/someone

I changed the candidates to make the game closer to real life, lowering Kerry's charisma to 2 and his leadership to 3 as well as Bush's issue knowledge to 2. I also lowered Nader's leadership to 2 his charisma to 1 and something else too (Nader is way overrated in the game, he got about 0.5% in the real election and constantly gets about 4% in the game).

I tied Bush in the popular vote of the old confederacy and won the national popular vote by about 10 points or 12 million votes, 52-42 with Nader at 3% and Badnarik at 1%.
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,423


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #21 on: April 03, 2005, 08:37:42 am »

I've won with Dean. Big, even. There is probably something wrng with your strategy, I don't reacall it was even that hard to win with Dean. Power 5 isn't that good, you should have at least one power 6 ad. Wink

To answer someone's question, debate skill is more important than issue knowledge for winning the debate, but issue knowledge matters for how much of a boost you get. Also, I think being above 50 in EP matters more than you'd think.
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,423


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #22 on: April 04, 2005, 12:34:58 pm »



Dean/Gephardt v Bush/Cheney v Nader v Badnarik

PV: Dean-Bush-Nader-Badnarik was 50-42-5-1

EV: Dean wins 297-241.

Best states:

Bush: Idaho 62.9%
Dean: Illinois 61.2%
Nader: Alaska 13.4%
Badnarik: California: 6.9%

Worse states:
Bush: Hawaii 30.6%
Dean: Alaska 28.6%
Nader: Missouri 1.2%
Badnarik: Mississippi 0% (23 votes)

Closest states:
Florida, where Bush won by 1.2%, 48.3% v 47.1% with Nader getting the rest.

This was an interesting election. I only got one power 5 ad throughout the entire campaign, hit Bush with two medium scandals (power 6) whereas I got hit by a power 9 scandal. I also started out about 150 EVs behind. But I managed to win despite this, somehow. I didn't take the lead until 1 day before the election. I have to admit Gabu that it was harder playing Dean than I remembered, he started out 3% behind and it became as bad as 5% before I turned it around.

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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,423


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #23 on: April 05, 2005, 03:59:51 am »

The 2000 scenerio makes Nader way too strong.

The 2004 scenario makes Nader way too strong.
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,423


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P P

« Reply #24 on: April 06, 2005, 02:55:42 pm »



Argh! Came very close to winning CA with Perot.

PV was Bush 33% Clinton 34% and Perot 31%

I'm gonna keep trying...I think it's possible to win with Perot, if you have a little luck.
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