Utah

[Franzl]

i say 36% tops

he got more this year, though.

No, he didn't.

Damn Baldwin and co......


sorry ogis

[anvi]

Yep, Utah this year was:

McCain:  555,497    63%
Obama   301,771    34%

with Obama winning only Summit and Grand.  I would be shocked if Huckabee did worse than McCain in Utah were he to be the nominee in '12.  I think 35% is where Obama tops out in Utah.

[Holmes]

Obama won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes. Which is different from the city, which I'm sure he won handily.

http://elections.utah.gov/

[Alcon]

Yeah, 38-40% should be the absolute limit. If the inflow of Hispanics into UT holds on in the coming years (something that I doubt, because of the economy) and the Democrats manage to hold on to 70%-majorities among this group, Utah could trend further DEM on the Presidential level.

Newly arriving Hispanics almost never vote, really, especially the kind arriving into Utah.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I say his max would be 40%. Especially of Huckabee is the nominee. There is a general anger towards him cause he allowed Anti-Mormon comments to remain on his website, and used anti mormon feelings to his benefit.

[tmthforu94]

38%, at best.

[pbrower2a]

Should Huckabee face Obama in 2008, Utah is in play. Obama can at least praise Mormons for taking care of their own on a large scale. Huckabee has yet to show that he can win any support outside the South that isn't core Republican -- that is, would never vote for any Democrat under any circumstances and wouldn't refrain from voting. Freak circumstances, much like Indiana in 2008, but should Huckabee be the GOP nominee, and Indiana in 2012 will make Indiana in 2008 look more like a portent than a freak.

In any event, I see Obama more likely to pick off Montana and the Dakotas, or even all of Nebraska except NE-03 than Utah. Utah at that is clearly NOT a southern state, and should Huckabee be unable to win outside the South and Obama split the South, then we will see the biggest landslide since Reagan 1984.

Romney, on the other hand, wins Utah about 65-35, Idaho about 57-43, Wyoming about 55-45, and NE-03 about 60-40. I just can't imagine Romney winning more than three states in the South if Obama is at all successful.

The GOP may be in a death spiral, especially if it gives shrill and strident opposition to an Obama stimulus should it succeed, and the spiral only accelerates should the stimulus succed but the GOP carp about its faults. 

[Franzl]

Obama won't break 45%, even against Huckabee.

40% is more likely.

[Lunar]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8322_Page2.html

Way back when Obama was actually beating Huckabee by 16% in Utah polls

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think Obama could did at best 45% in Utah with winning by a landslide in the whole country.

[Alcon]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0208/8322_Page2.html

Way back when Obama was actually beating Huckabee by 16% in Utah polls

Although that poll (aside from generally sucking) had McCain +10 against Obama, too

[HAnnA MArin County]

I have to slightly disagree with some recent comments that Utah, the most Republican state in the nation, is trending Democratic. It trended Democratic in 2008, like most every state in the nation, but that's not surprising seeing as how 2008 was a Democratic year. Conversely, in 2004, Utah gave George W. Bush nearly 72 percent of the vote in a Republican year. No Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson has carried Utah in the landslide of 1964, and I don't see it going blue anytime soon. No matter how successful Obama is, he won't get above 35 percent of the vote in Utah in 2012. This, of course, all depends on who he faces in 2012. If it's someone like Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin or another social conservative who fires up the religious right-wing base of the party, expect Obama to get around 30 percent like he did in 2008. I really doubt the Republicans will nominate another moderate/independent/mavericky candidate like John McCain. With Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter and other right-wing nut jobs gaining control of the party, you can expect them to nominate another old-school Reaganesque fiscal and social conservative Republican, and if this candidate injects the fear issues involving God, guns and gays into the campaign, you can expect Utah voters to give the Republican candidate a close-to similar margin of victory that George W. Bush received in 2004. Gotta love those Mormons.

[Hash]

Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin or another social conservative who fires up the religious right-wing base of the party, expect Obama to get around 30 percent like he did in 2008.

Mike Huckabee may fire up the Bible-thumpers, but he sure as hell ain't firing up Mormons. They have a mutual dislike/hate of each other.

[justfollowingtheelections]

If Huckabee or some other Mormon hater is the GOP-nominee, Obama wins.  It's that simple.

[Rowan]

With the way things are going already for this guy, he will be lucky to get 30%.