2012 Map Megathread

[5280]

That's a very hopeful map for Obama, and likely not to happen.  People will grow tired of him and his 'big' government ideas and power.

[pbrower2a]

That's a very hopeful map for Obama, and likely not to happen.  People will grow tired of him and his 'big' government ideas and power.

People are still sick of George W. Bush.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Romney wins the nomination in hard-fought and nasty contest against Palin and Huckabee.  When one of those two social conservatives drops out, Romney has to step up the attacks.  Then to court disappointed evangelicals and make a play for Midwestern voters he taps Pawlenty who helps him about as much as Edwards ended up helping Kerry in the South.

The beginning of economic recovery in mid 2011.
Healthcare reform revised sometime before 2012 to include a public option
Robust diplomacy brings mixed results.  No calamities, some genuine gains.

Obama/Biden hold every state from 2008 and add Georgia, Missouri, Montana, Arkansas and Alaska.

Arizona would flip long before Alaska did.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

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Not to mention Arkansas. Alaska could probably vote against Romney if he had a nasty battle with favourite daughter Sarah, but Arkansas will not go dem if Arizona doesn't. Obama is too liberal to get the support of the moderate Arkansas democrates even if Billary campaigned like crazy for him down there.

[pbrower2a]

Romney makes things closer in the North with the possible gains of Indiana and Ohio -- but loses a raft of Southern states. Huckabee holds onto all the Southern states that voted for McCain -- but loses a bunch of Northern states that voted for McCain. Obama didn't campaign hard in states that showed little chance of voting for him; in 2012 he will win or lose some of those states on his record.

The question will be the style of the election more than the ultimate result. Romney loses a gigantic landslide in electoral votes; Huckabee probably does less well in popular votes but gets more electoral votes because he will lose by bigger margins in states that Obama won by large margins in 2008. Both likely lose Missouri and Arizona.

[5280]

People are still sick of George W. Bush.
[/quote]

You say people are sick of GWB?  People are already sick of Obama and will be sick even more with the GM being run by the government.

[marvelrobbins]

Yeah,having a 65 percent approvol rating,having a Supereme Court pick attacked by the right wing with the public supporting the choice,Is the first Democrat In over 40 years to be trusted as commander In Chief.

And If the government hadn't stepin both GM and Chrysler would cause umemployment to go up even higher.

Obama Is the best politican of the age.Clinton would have lost In 96 had Republicans not regained the congress In 94,and Bush would have lost in 04 had It not been for 9 11.

The Clintons never took Obama seriously and Mccain thought by picking Palin to appease the right wing and possably pick up disgrunted Hillary supporters by having a female VP he would win.Obama Is In the white House now and beat them all.

And If you read history Roosevelt won because of the depression.The country didn't totally get out of the Depression till World War II but Roosevelt won reelection because the public saw him trying to do things.The same thing can happen to Obama.And If Republicans want to compare Reagan to Roosevelt Democrats can do the same with Obama.

[pbrower2a]

People are still sick of George W. Bush.


You say people are sick of GWB?  People are already sick of Obama and will be sick even more with the GM being run by the government.

Voters despised Herbert Hoover for decades, and the Democrats exploited that fact for several cycles.

[ej2mm15]

red is republicans, blue is dem. Don't really get the opposite way around on this site. Anyway, I'm basing this off of the 2008 swing states, and I do not do it by guess, I do it by statistics.
(MY SWING STATE THERUM)
Each state starts as a swing, and say Obama wants to add ... Ohio to his side. All he has to do is get one poll where he has a 16 point advantage or higher and its on his turf. Now, for that state to go back to the swing column, all the repub has to do is have one poll with them in the lead. DOn't say its bad, because on Nov 4 2008, the only thing on my swing map that changed was that Arkansaw went from swing to rep. other then that, all the states staying on their turf. What u think about my therum? Plse reply.

Btw, you may say that it is too strict, but during about the last 6 months of the elections, you'll see 2-4 changes a month.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

LOL at Arizona.

[You kip if you want to...]

red is republicans, blue is dem. Don't really get the opposite way around on this site. Anyway, I'm basing this off of the 2008 swing states, and I do not do it by guess, I do it by statistics.
(MY SWING STATE THERUM)
Each state starts as a swing, and say Obama wants to add ... Ohio to his side. All he has to do is get one poll where he has a 16 point advantage or higher and its on his turf. Now, for that state to go back to the swing column, all the repub has to do is have one poll with them in the lead. DOn't say its bad, because on Nov 4 2008, the only thing on my swing map that changed was that Arkansaw went from swing to rep. other then that, all the states staying on their turf. What u think about my therum? Plse reply.

Btw, you may say that it is too strict, but during about the last 6 months of the elections, you'll see 2-4 changes a month.

16 points
McCain didn't even win Texas or Mississippi by 16 points. Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Jersey were won by Obama by less than 16 points.

[ej2mm15]

red is republicans, blue is dem. Don't really get the opposite way around on this site. Anyway, I'm basing this off of the 2008 swing states, and I do not do it by guess, I do it by statistics.
(MY SWING STATE THERUM)
Each state starts as a swing, and say Obama wants to add ... Ohio to his side. All he has to do is get one poll where he has a 16 point advantage or higher and its on his turf. Now, for that state to go back to the swing column, all the repub has to do is have one poll with them in the lead. DOn't say its bad, because on Nov 4 2008, the only thing on my swing map that changed was that Arkansaw went from swing to rep. other then that, all the states staying on their turf. What u think about my therum? Plse reply.

Btw, you may say that it is too strict, but during about the last 6 months of the elections, you'll see 2-4 changes a month.

16 points
McCain didn't even win Texas or Mississippi by 16 points. Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Jersey were won by Obama by less than 16 points.

No, It is also based mostly on POLLING. McCain had some polls with 16 or above (though very few), and Texas stayed republican from 2004, since Obama never took a lead there. Wisconsin, Minnesota and NJ, Obama definately had a point over 26. As for the 16%, ... seemed like a good number to me... it works out... sooooo...?

[California8429]

Good Term For Obama. Economy recovers

Okay Term. Economy doesn't get worse and starts to recover slowly.

Bad Term. Economy gets slightly worse.

Horrible Term. Economy sucks, ect.

Of course, it all depends really on the nominee also and their running-mate. Huckabee and Romney wouldn't appeal to the same types of people.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Horrible Term. Economy sucks, ect.

GAH! It's etc., not ect.!!!

Sorry, pet peeve. :/

Anyway, welcome to the fora!

[pbrower2a]

Obama gets credit if the economy is going in the right direction.

[You kip if you want to...]

Obama gets credit if the economy is going in the right direction.

Obama gets blamed if the economy goes the in the wrong direction/stays the same.

[DariusNJ]

How do you make one of these maps?

[Mint]

And if anyone thinks I'm being a hack, I'd be predicting a similar landslide for the opposition if McCain won too most likely. Frankly I'd be stunned if the economy picks up or even stays relatively close to where it is now. My guess is another devastating credit crunch by 2010 and maybe an international crisis like Pakistan imploding for good measure.

[tmthforu94]

Mint is a hack...

That looks very similar to the mock election on here, actually.
I do agree, that I think 2012 could be a great year for Republicans. And as the world continues to struggle, I'll expect 2016 to be a great year for Democrats.

[Vepres]

And if anyone thinks I'm being a hack, I'd be predicting a similar landslide for the opposition if McCain won too most likely. Frankly I'd be stunned if the economy picks up or even stays relatively close to where it is now. My guess is another devastating credit crunch by 2010 and maybe an international crisis like Pakistan imploding for good measure.

Why do you have a democratic avatar?

(Did I already ask you this? )

[tmthforu94]

And if anyone thinks I'm being a hack, I'd be predicting a similar landslide for the opposition if McCain won too most likely. Frankly I'd be stunned if the economy picks up or even stays relatively close to where it is now. My guess is another devastating credit crunch by 2010 and maybe an international crisis like Pakistan imploding for good measure.

Why do you have a democratic avatar?

(Did I already ask you this? )

Because in real life, he's a registered Democrat.

[Vepres]

And if anyone thinks I'm being a hack, I'd be predicting a similar landslide for the opposition if McCain won too most likely. Frankly I'd be stunned if the economy picks up or even stays relatively close to where it is now. My guess is another devastating credit crunch by 2010 and maybe an international crisis like Pakistan imploding for good measure.

Why do you have a democratic avatar?

(Did I already ask you this? )

Because in real life, he's a registered Democrat.

Really?

[Mint]

Yes really.

[DariusNJ]

Obama approval of 65% on Election Day

Obama approval of 35% on Election Day

[You kip if you want to...]

Obama 35% approval on November 6th 2012