BRTD vs Keystone Phil

[Flying Dog]

Phil/Phil

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Phil/Phil

[7,052,770]

BRTD/whatever the national climate was

[NOVA Green]

Omg, Fill mUst have Pmed hgis freinds to pikk himm!!1111

Ridiculous... although after looking at the Phil/BRTD debate on the other thread I'm thinking about going neutral or third party!

[TeePee4Prez]

BRTD/whatever the national climate was

Agreed.  It would lean/likely Phil in a normalized climate though.  Map for a normal climate in a sec....

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Phil hands down. I guy who lives in a suburban county vs. a guy who hates the suburbs, easy call.

[exopolitician]

I despise most of Phil's politics...but hes a good friend. BRTD isn't....

I feel dirty picking a Republican over a Democrat

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Phil hands down. I guy who lives in a suburban county vs. a guy who hates the suburbs, easy call.

What? Phil lives in Philadelphia. Neither of us live in the suburbs.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil hands down. I guy who lives in a suburban county vs. a guy who hates the suburbs, easy call.

What? Phil lives in Philadelphia. Neither of us live in the suburbs.

Yes. In fact, the city BRTD lives in would be considered a suburb compared to Philadelphia.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Phil hands down. I guy who lives in a suburban county vs. a guy who hates the suburbs, easy call.

What? Phil lives in Philadelphia. Neither of us live in the suburbs.

Yes. In fact, the city BRTD lives in would be considered a suburb compared to Philadelphia.

That doesn't make any sense. It's like saying Philadelphia would be a suburb compared to NYC.

You live in a more suburban and less dense area than I do.

[Keystone Phil]

That doesn't make any sense. It's like saying Philadelphia would be a suburb compared to NYC.

Uh, it does make sense and yes, Philly would be a suburb compared to NYC.

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If we want to get very specific, I live in a small development with over 1,000 registered voters. We have plenty of unregistered voters, too. I wouldn't be so sure that my square mile is less dense than your area.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That doesn't make any sense. It's like saying Philadelphia would be a suburb compared to NYC.

Uh, it does make sense and yes, Philly would be a suburb compared to NYC.

If size were the only thing that mattered in urban/suburban it does make sense, but that's not the case. There's a very urban municipality near Cleveland that has a population of only around 4,000 (and it voted something like 98.8% for Obama.)

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If we want to get very specific, I live in a small development with over 1,000 registered voters. We have plenty of unregistered voters, too. I wouldn't be so sure that my square mile is less dense than your area.

So you have about one quarter the number of voters that my area does.

[Keystone Phil]

If size were the only thing that mattered in urban/suburban it does make sense, but that's not the case. There's a very urban municipality near Cleveland that has a population of only around 4,000 (and it voted something like 98.8% for Obama.)

Then what else are we going by? Philadelphia is definitely more of a major city than Minneapolis. Please don't argue otherwise.

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Well, how big is your precinct? Even though my precinct is big by Philly standards, our precincts are typically a lot smaller than most nationwide.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If size were the only thing that mattered in urban/suburban it does make sense, but that's not the case. There's a very urban municipality near Cleveland that has a population of only around 4,000 (and it voted something like 98.8% for Obama.)

Then what else are we going by? Philadelphia is definitely more of a major city than Minneapolis. Please don't argue otherwise.

That doesn't make Minneapolis a suburb in comparison. It's a pointless way of comparing things. It's like asking which is more rural: Milwaukee or Denver or which is more exurban: Richfield, MN or Wyncote, PA?

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Well, how big is your precinct? Even though my precinct is big by Philly standards, our precincts are typically a lot smaller than most nationwide.
[/quote]

http://www.commissions.leg.state.mn.us/gis/html/l2002/pdf/61a.pdf

It's the area in between Pillsbury, 27th, 35W and Franklin.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.commissions.leg.state.mn.us/gis/html/l2002/pdf/61a.pdf

It's the area in between Pillsbury, 27th, 35W and Franklin.

Hmmm...can't tell if mine is bigger or smaller. Whatever the case, my immediate area is very densely populated.

[Flying Dog]

To elaborate on my vote,  I agree with Phil on most social issues and while I may have quarrels with him on economic topics, he's a receptive fellow and a likable guy.

[NOVA Green]

To elaborate on my vote,  I agree with Phil on most social issues and while I may have quarrels with him on economic topics, he's a receptive fellow and a likable guy.

Interestingly enough, I tend to agree with BRTD more often on economic, social, and foreign policy related issues.

Phil however is much more willing to get into an extended conversation, particularly with newcomers to the forum, and actually debate issues rather than rely on one or two line snappy comebacks.

BRTD would have a slight edge on political predictions, although I recall some prediction about a plains state such as SD or KS going for Obama, which pretty much cancels Phil's excessively optimistic reading of the Philly burbs, mainly generated before the economic collapse (and yes I do realize that the Reagan ethnic Democrats came home in a surprising fashion in a few of these wards).

I may agree more with BRTD on the issues at stake, but Phil seems like he would be a better listener to his constituents.... This may sound strange considering that both can be a little obnoxious and dismissive at times, but where would this board be without Phil or BRTD?

Both will fight to keep the troll invasions from the North and South to a minimum, and I will vote for the candidate most able to keep the barbarians from storming the gates.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil's excessively optimistic reading of the Philly burbs

Uh, for the record, I have always been a pessimist when it comes to the Philly suburbs. I think you're confusing me with J.J. 

[NOVA Green]

Phil's excessively optimistic reading of the Philly burbs

Uh, for the record, I have always been a pessimist when it comes to the Philly suburbs. I think you're confusing me with J.J. 

(Laughs)....

It is true the first few months after lurking and actually posting I did accidentally mix you up after having a few beers....

However, excepting some of the detailed PA related threads (which I avidly devoured and appreciate the insights both of you, as well as another half-dozen of our PA comrades), you made an individual impression early on despite the avatar mix-up.

Compared to JJ you were no doubt a pessimist, and offered some more serious inputs into the "situation on the ground" as well as detailed ward/precinct/hood analysis combined with local socio-demographic trends. I think it was Bucks Co, and NE Philly where the Obama surge blindsided you, although granted this was a relatively last-minute development in the local political dynamics.

Trust me, I made the mistake of mixing you two up one night in the late Spring / early Summer and got very quickly schooled.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Phil hands down. I guy who lives in a suburban county vs. a guy who hates the suburbs, easy call.

What? Phil lives in Philadelphia. Neither of us live in the suburbs.

Yes. In fact, the city BRTD lives in would be considered a suburb compared to Philadelphia.

You live in Montco right Phil? I said surburban county and Montco is that for them most part. My point was you would be a stronger candidate based on that fact.

[TeePee4Prez]

Phil's excessively optimistic reading of the Philly burbs

Uh, for the record, I have always been a pessimist when it comes to the Philly suburbs. I think you're confusing me with J.J. 

(Laughs)....

It is true the first few months after lurking and actually posting I did accidentally mix you up after having a few beers....

However, excepting some of the detailed PA related threads (which I avidly devoured and appreciate the insights both of you, as well as another half-dozen of our PA comrades), you made an individual impression early on despite the avatar mix-up.

Compared to JJ you were no doubt a pessimist, and offered some more serious inputs into the "situation on the ground" as well as detailed ward/precinct/hood analysis combined with local socio-demographic trends. I think it was Bucks Co, and NE Philly where the Obama surge blindsided you, although granted this was a relatively last-minute development in the local political dynamics.

Trust me, I made the mistake of mixing you two up one night in the late Spring / early Summer and got very quickly schooled.

I can second him being a local.  He was in fact very optimistic about some of the white, ethnic Wards/Divisions in Philly and lower Bucks going for McCain and even I tended to agree with him to a point.  Older whites have historically voted in record numbers and from observing even members of my own family and friends' political attitudes this election, some of his calls were not entirely implausible.  However, I noticed more younger white voters in these areas concerned with the economy and Iraq hence Obama held his own.  I kinda knew this was gonna happen and called for only about 3-4 Wards flipping for McCain.  Even I'll admit if this were 2000, the game would have probably been MUCH different in an election like this. 

[Keystone Phil]

Phil hands down. I guy who lives in a suburban county vs. a guy who hates the suburbs, easy call.

What? Phil lives in Philadelphia. Neither of us live in the suburbs.

Yes. In fact, the city BRTD lives in would be considered a suburb compared to Philadelphia.

You live in Montco right Phil? I said surburban county and Montco is that for them most part. My point was you would be a stronger candidate based on that fact.

Now I know you must be doing this to bust on me! Montco? Really?

No, I live in Philadelphia. I live in the city limits but right across the street from me is Bucks county.

I can second him being a local.  He was in fact very optimistic about some of the white, ethnic Wards/Divisions in Philly and lower Bucks going for McCain and even I tended to agree with him to a point.  Older whites have historically voted in record numbers and from observing even members of my own family and friends' political attitudes this election, some of his calls were not entirely implausible.  However, I noticed more younger white voters in these areas concerned with the economy and Iraq hence Obama held his own.  I kinda knew this was gonna happen and called for only about 3-4 Wards flipping for McCain.  Even I'll admit if this were 2000, the game would have probably been MUCH different in an election like this. 

Yes, but even you were worried about Obama underperforming in certain strong Dem wards. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Phil hands down. I guy who lives in a suburban county vs. a guy who hates the suburbs, easy call.

What? Phil lives in Philadelphia. Neither of us live in the suburbs.

Yes. In fact, the city BRTD lives in would be considered a suburb compared to Philadelphia.

You live in Montco right Phil? I said surburban county and Montco is that for them most part. My point was you would be a stronger candidate based on that fact.

Now I know you must be doing this to bust on me! Montco? Really?

No, I live in Philadelphia. I live in the city limits but right across the street from me is Bucks county.

I can second him being a local.  He was in fact very optimistic about some of the white, ethnic Wards/Divisions in Philly and lower Bucks going for McCain and even I tended to agree with him to a point.  Older whites have historically voted in record numbers and from observing even members of my own family and friends' political attitudes this election, some of his calls were not entirely implausible.  However, I noticed more younger white voters in these areas concerned with the economy and Iraq hence Obama held his own.  I kinda knew this was gonna happen and called for only about 3-4 Wards flipping for McCain.  Even I'll admit if this were 2000, the game would have probably been MUCH different in an election like this. 

Yes, but even you were worried about Obama underperforming in certain strong Dem wards. 

Worried about underperformance?  Yes.  Defeat?  No.  I called for an Obama 6-7 point statewide victory in PA because of the Dems increasing their margins in the suburbs and heavy black turnout in the city itself.  I even made this prediction alloting a loss of a few predominately white Wards.  Western PA was no surprise for me either. 

[Bacon King]

Both can be annoying sometimes and really awesome sometimes. However with BRTD the balance is 70% annoying, 30% awesome, while with Phil it's something like 30-70. In spite of my ideological similarity to BRTD, such a difference in likability really muddles my preference. If forced to pick between the two I think it'd be Phil.

[Nixon in '80]

Phil/Phil