The Best Electoral Prediction?
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Author Topic: The Best Electoral Prediction?  (Read 1900 times)
humder
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« on: January 04, 2009, 02:53:45 PM »
 This website was only one electoral vote off- http://www.trendlines.ca/electusa.htm
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2009, 06:36:10 PM »
The site was only one vote off in its prediction from the day after the election (e.g. its election results).  Its actual pre-election prediction was 22 off for Obama which (using the site's procedure of splitting tossups evenly between the candidates) puts it worse than both this atlas and 538.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2009, 07:14:55 PM »
Trendlines is pretty bad.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2009, 09:04:18 PM »
« Edited: January 04, 2009, 09:11:44 PM by Jacobtm »
It looks like only this guy got it right:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=326

Unfortunately, he chose the wrong NE CD to go to Obama, so he actually got points off for 2 NE CD's. Unfortunate slipup.
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