Ireland 2009

[Tetro Kornbluth]

For the Dublin South by-election one of the (obscure) independent candidates listed put down his career as Taxi Driver/Horse Breeder. Which I must say is a totally brilliant combo. He got my second preference (he'll need it) just for that alone. My First went to Alex White; not that it matters really.

I put the "Omg He's the Son of the Other Guy" and ex-Anglo Irish Bank employee eighth and last.

[Јas]

For the Dublin South by-election one of the (obscure) independent candidates listed put down his career as Taxi Driver/Horse Breeder. Which I must say is a totally brilliant combo.

I presume that's Frank O'Gorman.

He's got an interesting manifesto per his website.

He was also on Vincent Browne the other week, where it was pretty clear his ambition was actually to be elected in one of the 2 local elections he's simultaneously running in.

[Јas]

Polls are now closed; reports on turnout around the country seem to be respectable.

I understand RTÉ conducted an exit poll, but the results won't be released until 11a.m. tomorrow.

Counting begins for the Locals and the 2 Dáil by-elections tomorrow morning at 9a.m.

Counting in the Europeans won't start until 9p.m. on Sunday

[Tetro Kornbluth]

For the Dublin South by-election one of the (obscure) independent candidates listed put down his career as Taxi Driver/Horse Breeder. Which I must say is a totally brilliant combo.

I presume that's Frank O'Gorman.

He's got an interesting manifesto per his website.

He was also on Vincent Browne the other week, where it was pretty clear his ambition was actually to be elected in one of the 2 local elections he's simultaneously running in.

I've rarely been paying this any attention at all, but massive FF.

He isn't my local council area though (I'm in Glencullen not Rathfarnham - actually technically that's South Dublin Country not DL/R). I know nothing about our local government other than more FF/FG councillers = bad (for property/rezoning reasons which is and always has been the biggest local issue *begins anti-suburban/property developers thankgodfortherecession rant*). I voted #1 for the Green Party candidate for that reason, but right now I wouldn't vote for the Greens at any higher level. Labour got #2 and #3 with the picks between #2 and #3 completely random. The Greens are expected to be in the hunt in the end so *shrugs*.

Thankfully Maria Corrigan stopped being our local counciller as to become an OMG SENATOR after 2007.

Already mentioned who I voted for in the Euros in the European Election thread.

[Јas]

He isn't my local council area though (I'm in Glencullen not Rathfarnham - actually technically that's South Dublin Country not DL/R). I know nothing about our local government other than more FF/FG councillers = bad (for property/rezoning reasons which is and always has been the biggest local issue *begins anti-suburban/property developers thankgodfortherecession rant*). I voted #1 for the Green Party candidate for that reason, but right now I wouldn't vote for the Greens at any higher level. Labour got #2 and #3 with the picks between #2 and #3 completely random. The Greens are expected to be in the hunt in the end so *shrugs*.

The creation and adoption of local development plans and so planning matters are by far and away the most significant responsibility of local councillors, so you seem to be on the money here.

I had a rather sorry looking set of options for the locals.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

He isn't my local council area though (I'm in Glencullen not Rathfarnham - actually technically that's South Dublin Country not DL/R). I know nothing about our local government other than more FF/FG councillers = bad (for property/rezoning reasons which is and always has been the biggest local issue *begins anti-suburban/property developers thankgodfortherecession rant*). I voted #1 for the Green Party candidate for that reason, but right now I wouldn't vote for the Greens at any higher level. Labour got #2 and #3 with the picks between #2 and #3 completely random. The Greens are expected to be in the hunt in the end so *shrugs*.

The creation and adoption of local development plans and so planning matters are by far and away the most significant responsibility of local councillors, so you seem to be on the money here.

I had a rather sorry looking set of options for the locals.

Looks Tempting... Does the Labour Party even exist in Monaghan?

[Јas]

He isn't my local council area though (I'm in Glencullen not Rathfarnham - actually technically that's South Dublin Country not DL/R). I know nothing about our local government other than more FF/FG councillers = bad (for property/rezoning reasons which is and always has been the biggest local issue *begins anti-suburban/property developers thankgodfortherecession rant*). I voted #1 for the Green Party candidate for that reason, but right now I wouldn't vote for the Greens at any higher level. Labour got #2 and #3 with the picks between #2 and #3 completely random. The Greens are expected to be in the hunt in the end so *shrugs*.

The creation and adoption of local development plans and so planning matters are by far and away the most significant responsibility of local councillors, so you seem to be on the money here.

I had a rather sorry looking set of options for the locals.

Looks Tempting... Does the Labour Party even exist in Monaghan?

Barely.
They've run one candidate in the Carrickmacross LEA (he's also running for the Town Council)...and that's it. It is though one more than the total number of Labour candidates in the 2004 Locals.

[Јas]

News from the North...

Turnout: 42.8% (down from 51.72% in 2004)

The count proper hasn't started, obviously, but there was a verification process today (weeding out spoiled votes and such). News for observers is that deBrún (SF) will top the poll (the only thing the DUP seemed to campaign about ).

Allister is suggested to have at least done respectably and taken a significant bite into the DUP vote.

[Јas]

Counting underway across the country...

First up - By-election News

Dublin South
27% boxes tallied so far...

Lee (FG) 54%
White (Lab) 21%
Brennan (FF) 17.5%

Full first count expected around 12.30p.m.

If he stays up above 50%, it'll be the first by-election win on a first count since 1984, when one Brian Cowen succeeded to his father's seat.

---

Dublin Central

Around 65% boxes open

Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite) 25%
Paschal Donoghue (FG) 25%
Ivana Bacik (Lab) 18%
Maurice Ahern (FF) 12.6%
Christy Burke (SF) 11.5%
Geary (Grn) 3%
Talbot (Workers) 2%
Steenson (Immigration Control) 2%
O'Loughlin (Christian Solidarity) 0.6%

First count expected around 2p.m.

To me, this looks like O'Sullivan will win this out.

---

News from the RTÉ Exit Poll (traditionally quite accurate)
Sample = 3,334
MoE 1%

Local Elections (Change on 2004 locals)

FG 34% (+6.5)
FF 24% (-8)
Lab 17% (+5.5)
Grn 3% (-1)
SF 9% (+1)
Ind/Other 13%

Looks like FF will do slightly better than the polls indicated; Labour slightly worse.

[Јas]

Little from the European Elections yet, the the news is that that Declan Ganley (Libertas) is apparently doing much better than expected so far. Marian Harkin (Ind) also doing well there. Not a lot else to report yet there.

In East, it's looking very good for McGuinness (FG) and Childers (Lab). Not enough yet to determine between Aylward (FF) and Phelan (FG) for the final seat.
In South, Crowley (FF) and Seán Kelly (FG) look like they're ok, little is being ruled out regarding the final seat.

In Dublin, very early tallies suggest Mitchell (FG) and deRossa (Lab) are safe enough and as expected it's between McDonald (SF), Ryan (FF) and Higgins (Soc) for the final seat.

[Јas]

By-election update...

Dublin Central
80% of the boxes open

O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite) 27%
Donoghue (FG) 22.1%
Bacik (Lab) 17.3%
Burke (SF) 13.4%
Ahern (FF) 12.2%

On these numbers, it's pretty much over. Indeed, I'd suggest that only Bacik could beat O'Sullivan here now (by overtaking Donoghue and taking the lion's share of his votes) but that's a very outside bet.

[Јas]

The Dublin South first count is now not expected until around 3p.m (some boxes seem to have been overlooked there).

Another factoid, Lee could be the first FG candidate to win a by-election on the first count since 1975 - when Enda Kenny succeeded his father in Mayo West.

[Јas]

Dublin Central

98% of boxes in...

O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite) 26.9%
Donoghue (FG) 22.5%
Bacik (Lab) 17.7%
Burke (SF) 13.3%
Ahern (FF) 12.5%

FF have never come worse than 3rd in a by-election before.

[Јas]

RTÉ/Lansdowne European Election Exit Poll
Sample = 3,334
MoE 1.7%

FG 30% (+2.2)
FF 23% (-6.5)
Lab 16% (+5.5)
SF 12% (+0.9)
Libertas 4% (+4)
Socialist 3% (+1.5)
Green 2% (-2.3)
Ind/Other 10

---

Ciaran Cuffe TD (Green-Dún Laoighaire) has suggested that the results in the various elections for the Greens suggest they should be seriously questioning whether they should continue in Government.

It may be part of the Green play for the upcoming renegotiation of the Programme for Government, or maybe he's just stupid enough to think that a General Election would mean anything but absolute disaster for the Greens.

[Јas]

Dublin South
Completed Tally

Lee (FG) 53.4%
White (Lab) 19.7%
Brennan (FF) 18.1%

[Јas]

In the local elections, it's now clear the Greens are getting punished.

In 2004, the party won 18 seats (+10 on 1999). Right now, it's difficult to point to  nearly any of them that they will hold onto.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Rejoice! And LOLZ@ Maurice Ahern.

[Јas]

Dublin South By-Election Result

Count 1

George Lee (FG)	27,768	53.4%	(+26.1% on FG in 2007 General)
Alex White (Lab)	10,294	19.8%	(+9.4%)
Shay Brennan (FF)	9,250	17.8%	(-23.6%)
Elizabeth Davidson (Grn)	1,846	3.5%	(-7.5%)
Shaun Tracey (SF)	1,705	3.3%	(+0.3%)
Ross O'Mullane (Ind)	650	1.2%
Frank O'Gorman (Ind)	351	0.7%
Noel O'Gara (Ind)	172	0.3%

   
Lee elected on the first count.

FG and Labour double their vote on the 2007 General; FF vote more than halves. Green vote collapses also.


New composition of the Dáil:

Fianna Fáil	75
Fine Gael	52	(+1)
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	5
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1

Government (FF, Green, PD + Indies) = 86
Opposition (FG, Lab, SF + Indies) = 78
Government Majority of 8

[minionofmidas]

Have we a complete first count of Dublin Central?

[Јas]

Have we a complete first count of Dublin Central?

No sign of it yet - should have it shortly.

[Јas]

Dáil By-Election: Dublin Central

	1st Count		Change on 2007
Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind Gregoryite)	7,639	26.9%	(+13.5% compared with Tony Gregory)
Paschal Donoghue (FG)	6,439	22.7%	(+13.1%)
Ivana Bacik (Lab)	4,926	17.3%	(+4.8%)
Christy Burke (SF)	3,770	13.3%	(+4.1%)
Maurice Ahern (FF)	3,483	12.3%	(-32.2%)
David Geary (Grn)	819	2.9%	(-2.9%)
Patrick Talbot (ICP)	614	2.2%	(+1.5%)
Malachy Steenson (WP)	519	1.8%	(+1.8%)
Paul O'Loughlin (CSP)	203	0.7%	(-0.04%)

   

O'Loughlin eliminated.
2nd Count shouldn't be far off...

[minionofmidas]

Why wouldn't they eliminate the last four candidates in one go?

[Јas]

Why wouldn't they eliminate the last four candidates in one go?

Not sure. (I thought it might be about the Immigration Control Platform candidate trying to retain his deposit, but he can't get the necessary quarter of a quota to do that.) I think though that the decision on whether or not to eliminate multiples candidates is at the discretion of the returning officer.

[Јas]

By the by, the RTÉ/Lansdowne Exit poll, asked voters about Lisbon (Sample: 3,334): 54-28-18

Breakdown by European Party Vote
Fianna Fáil: 65-18-17
Fine Gael: 62-21-17
Labour: 53-30-17
Sinn Féin: 30-50-19
Green: 52-22-26
Libertas: 27-56-16
Ind/Other: 48-33-20

Seeing as how being anti-Lisbon seems to be the only agreed policy of Libertas, I'm not sure what it tells us that 27% of their voters favour it and 16% are unsure.

[Јas]

TV3 report that following these election results, Enda Kenny will be putting forward a motion of no confidence in the Government next week.