Ireland 2009

[Јas]

Congrats Jas, you live in the most Shinner county in the country.

Nah, I'm from and vote in the most Shinner county of the country!

Tyrone?

Check and mate, sir! Kudos.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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And that makes two of us...

You don't happen to live beside Ballaly LUAS stop do you? (I ask mostly because I really dislike some of the developments there and you said you live in Dundrum so...)

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Yeah I noticed that Roscommon PBP candidate in The Irish Times - WTH aptly describes my impression.

Anyway you miss my point, it's not that Labour not running candidates is the problem look at the candidates they did run in those areas - it is hardly impressive it is. Rather my snipe was at the idea that Labour could plausibly finish second in an election; national figures may show one thing but it means nothing as Labour have practically no organization in the Midlands (except Westmeath) and Connacht other than Galway City and Sligo Town. For Labour to even come close to FF if they (FF) got 25% of 1st Prefs they would need to challenge and take some seats in places like Roscommon-S.Leitrim, Cavan-Monaghan, Mayo, Laois-Offaly and similiar constituencies. But there is no 'grassroots' and what left-wing vote there is such areas tend to go to Sinn Fein, which makes me wonder whether that is a left-wing vote at all.

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Okay but those are 'name' candidates for the most part. Though it does seem that Labour do have organization in parts of Donegal but it is far from taking a seat there (though the upcoming by-election will be interesting; but SF have a greater chance than Labour). I guess my general points is that that these election results aren't as bad for FF as they seem.

Jas, I think I have asked this before but will ask again, who exactly votes for Sinn Fein in Monaghan? Any group in particular or is it widespread?

[Јas]

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And that makes two of us...

You don't happen to live beside Ballaly LUAS stop do you? (I ask mostly because I really dislike some of the developments there and you said you live in Dundrum so...)

I moved to Goatstown about 2 months ago - Kilmacud is my new stop. I've not yet seen done much exploring in and around the Ballaly stop. What should be on the lookout for?

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Yeah I noticed that Roscommon PBP candidate in The Irish Times - WTH aptly describes my impression.

Anyway you miss my point, it's not that Labour not running candidates is the problem look at the candidates they did run in those areas - it is hardly impressive it is. Rather my snipe was at the idea that Labour could plausibly finish second in an election; national figures may show one thing but it means nothing as Labour have practically no organization in the Midlands (except Westmeath) and Connacht other than Galway City and Sligo Town. For Labour to even come close to FF if they (FF) got 25% of 1st Prefs they would need to challenge and take some seats in places like Roscommon-S.Leitrim, Cavan-Monaghan, Mayo, Laois-Offaly and similiar constituencies. But there is no 'grassroots' and what left-wing vote there is such areas tend to go to Sinn Fein, which makes me wonder whether that is a left-wing vote at all.

Yeah, fair points.

Overtaking FF would be extremely difficult - mostly because even if meltdown, á la the sorts of numbers at these elections, it's difficult to find any constituency that they won't take a seat. Tipp N, Kerry N, Dublin W, Dublin MW, Dublin SE, Roscommon-Leitrim S would be the sorts of places to look at...but I wouldn't be willing to wager on any. Thus FF can take 43 seats without any great difficulty.

By the same token, as you say, there are places Labour simply can't compete and the potential for the party to take 2 seats anywhere is very limited. In 1992, they got 33 elected on 19.3% (and Democratic Left got another 4 elected on 2.4%). Had they been a bit luckier, there were a few more that could have been picked up. Even at around 15% today, I'd expect Labour to win seats in every 4 and 5 seater in Leinster and Munster (exc. Clare and Laois-Offaly). At 20-25%, the breakthrough in gains in 3 seaters could be very significant, as well as possible 2nd seats in particular 5 seaters.

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Okay but those are 'name' candidates for the most part. Though it does seem that Labour do have organization in parts of Donegal but it is far from taking a seat there (though the upcoming by-election will be interesting; but SF have a greater chance than Labour). I guess my general points is that that these election results aren't as bad for FF as they seem.

Well, these numbers probably mean a loss of 30+ seats...which would be the biggest seat loss of any Irish party in a general election since the 20s, or arguably since 1918.

And one must also bear in mind that the Government still have at least one more austerity budget to pass before an election is likely. We'll have to wait and see whether the numbers can fall further.

The by-election should be interesting. Fianna Fáil's 4th best constituency in 2007 (50.5%) and home of the Tánaiste (but who could well be fired/demoted in the next re-shuffle). Also Sinn Féin's best constituency (21.2% in 2007) despite not taking a seat.

Usefully, the constituency is I think simply an amalgamation of the Donegal, Glenties and Stranorlar LEAs.

Adding together the vote totals for the parties gets you:

Fianna Fáil	12,202
Fine Gael	10,466
Sinn Féin	5,558
Labour	3,476
Independent	9,872

By my reckoning, FF's edge is in fact even greater than that shown as at least 4,042 of those Independent votes are for former FF members (similarly, 2,864 could be considered Ind FG votes; and 1,501 Ind SF votes).

I doubt FF could win the by-election, but given their underlying strength they can't be ruled out. The key factor could be whether FG or SF would be willing to transfer to one another. I'll take a look at the Locals in more detail later to see if there's anything interesting there.

Jas, I think I have asked this before but will ask again, who exactly votes for Sinn Fein in Monaghan? Any group in particular or is it widespread?

Well, it's a mixture.
There is a hard-core republican vote which has existed long before thebreakthrough in 1997. Ó Caoláin was getting a consistent 7-9% in the constituency since 1982. The basis of this vote is much like a lot of the basis of the rural Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, family tradition - and it was almost entirely a Monaghan vote, concentrated most in the north of the county.

Today, with the SF message broadened from simply one of republicanism, to one encompassing social justice, public services, etc. They have also broadened their appeal, mostly to the urban working class - estates like Mullaghmatt in Monaghan Town and Drumillard in Castleblayney would be strong SF areas. This isn't dissimilar to the growth of the party in Louth and Dublin.

In 1997, when Ó Caoláin was first elected it was an almost entirely Monaghan vote. By 2002, his vote within the county fell (principly on the back of the strong Independent Hospital candidate), but was masked by a sharp rise in Cavan SF votes.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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You don't live very far away from me then... scary thought. Dundrum is a ghastly horrible place.

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True. But it would still probably power again in 2017.

Thanks of the stuff on SF in Monaghan. Interesting.

[Јas]

With the election of Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF) in North-West, that means he has to vacate his Dáil seat for Donegal South-West. I think that the vacancy takes effect immediately on declaration, but I should get a definitive answer on that following the vote of no confidence against the Government which comes later today.

Anyway, the new composition of the Dáil:

Fianna Fáil	74	(-1)
Fine Gael	52
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	6
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	1	(+1: Donegal SW)

Government (FF, Greens, PDs, Jackie Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry, Jim McDaid) = 85
Opposition (FG, Lab, SF, Finian McGrath, Maureen O'Sullivan, Joe Behan) = 79
Government Majority of 6

On Wednesday, the Government won the Motion of Confidence 85-79, split as above.

Joe Behan (Ind-Wicklow) made it clear where he stood, opposing the "fundamentally unjust and inequitable decisions made and being implemented by this Government. I, for one, cannot and will not support them."

Neither Healy-Rae, Lowry nor McDaid spoke on the motion.

It was also made clear the other day that with Gallagher having won a European seat, the Dáil vacancy in Donegal SW arose immediately. Nothing yet on when the by-election is likely.

[Kevinstat]

Government (FF, Greens, PDs, Jackie Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry, Jim McDaid) = 85
Opposition (FG, Lab, SF, Finian McGrath, Maureen O'Sullivan, Joe Behan) = 79
Government Majority of 6

Consider this:
Hypothetical Government (FG, Lab, Greens, Finian McGrath, Maureen O'Sullivan, Joe Behan, Michael Lowry, Jim McDaid, Ned O'Keefe) = 84
Hypothetical Opposition (FF (- Ned O'Keefe), SF, PDs, Jackie Healy-Rae) = 80
Hypothetical Government Majority of 4

I know the Greens don't want there to be an election anytime soon, but it may be getting closer to the point where a Government could be formed by Fine Gael, Labour, the Greens and supporting Independents.  An opposition win in the Donegal SW by-election would bring that hypothetical government's majority to 5, enough to lose (or not gain) the support of a couple Independents or independent Fianna Fáil TDs who currently support the Government.

[Јas]

Government (FF, Greens, PDs, Jackie Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry, Jim McDaid) = 85
Opposition (FG, Lab, SF, Finian McGrath, Maureen O'Sullivan, Joe Behan) = 79
Government Majority of 6

Consider this:
Hypothetical Government (FG, Lab, Greens, Finian McGrath, Maureen O'Sullivan, Joe Behan, Michael Lowry, Jim McDaid, Ned O'Keefe) = 84
Hypothetical Opposition (FF (- Ned O'Keefe), SF, PDs, Jackie Healy-Rae) = 80
Hypothetical Government Majority of 4

I know the Greens don't want there to be an election anytime soon, but it may be getting closer to the point where a Government could be formed by Fine Gael, Labour, the Greens and supporting Independents.  An opposition win in the Donegal SW by-election would bring that hypothetical government's majority to 5, enough to lose (or not gain) the support of a couple Independents or independent Fianna Fáil TDs who currently support the Government.

I'd suggest it's simply not credible that either Ned O'Keefe or Jim McDaid would prop up an anti-FF Government (though it's not entirely beyond them to bring down a FF Govt). 
Important Note: I would've said something very similar about Michael Lowry and FG prior to the last election - but I still think the cases of McDaid and O'Keefe are different.

At the moment, there's simply no way I can see the opposition having the ability to cobble together a Government. If they win the Donegal SW by-election it becomes more feasible but I'd still suggest that the chances are remote.

Both Kenny and Gilmore would hugely prefer a General Election to a patchwork mid-term switchover. They'd make sizable gains nationwide; gain a 5-year mandate; cut the FF numbers in half; not have to deal with a potentially awkward opposition Seanad; and not have to rely on expensive and potentially wavering Independent support.

[Јas]

Second Lisbon Treaty Referendum will be on 2 October - Irish Times

[Kevinstat]

Second Lisbon Treaty Referendum will be on 2 October - Irish Times

Any speculation on whether or not the Donegal SW by-election will be held at the same time?

[Јas]

Second Lisbon Treaty Referendum will be on 2 October - Irish Times

Any speculation on whether or not the Donegal SW by-election will be held at the same time?

As it happens, the Taoiseach appeared to rule this out (as well as ruling out moving the writ before the summer break) during the Dáil Order of Business on Wednesday. Sinn Féin proceed to try and move the writ for by-election on Thursday, but lost the vote 69-72.

So no by-election until after Lisbon II, just how long after...

(It might be borne in mind that Donegal has traditionally voted more negatively to European treaties than most other places, Lisbon I being no exception. Then Donegal SW voted 37-63, compared to nationally 47-53.)

The issue could be complicated by who the Taoiseach decides to appoint as Ireland's next European Commissioner. That decision will be made in the autumn. Traditionally, the post is given to someone in the cabinet, or formerly thereof. Current speculation suggests Noel Dempsey (Minister for Transport, FF, Meath W) and Mary Harney (Minister for Health & Children, PD, Dublin MW). Given the narrowing Dáil majority though, other options such as Pat Cox (fmr. President of European Parliament), John Bruton (fmr. Taoiseach, current EU Ambassador to US), Catherine Day (EU Commission Secretary-General) are being suggested.

(I would suggest that nominating Mary Coughlan (Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, FF, Donegal SW) might be the answer as holding a dual by-election in Donegal SW effectively guarantees FF win 1 and gets rid of the less than popular Taosieach's ally with a soft landing.)

As to the by-election, we only know one of the candidates - Senator Pearse Doherty of Sinn Féin. Who Fianna Fáil's candidate willbe remains quite uncertain and the local party is not in a happy place right now.

Finally, out of interest, here is the Oireachtas Library's constituency profile for Donegal SW with details on demographics and such.

[Kevinstat]

Looking at Irish election law at an Irish government web site awhile back, I couldn't see any provision for a by-election where more than one TD was to be elected (although I know there were two such elections on the same day in the 1920, with both constituencies electing one CG and one Republican (precurser to FF)).  The language seemed to indicate a presumption that only one TD was to be elected.  I tried to write a question about that, but either I messed up in the submission form or the people who got the message didn't see any reason to reply to a demanding Yank.

[Kevinstat]

Here is the page I was talking about, from the Irish "eGovernment" website "Citizens Information": http://www.citizensinformation.ie/categories/government-in-ireland/elections-and-referenda/national-elections/the_by_election

[Јas]

Looking at Irish election law at an Irish government web site awhile back, I couldn't see any provision for a by-election where more than one TD was to be elected (although I know there were two such elections on the same day in the 1920, with both constituencies electing one CG and one Republican (precurser to FF)).  The language seemed to indicate a presumption that only one TD was to be elected.  I tried to write a question about that, but either I messed up in the submission form or the people who got the message didn't see any reason to reply to a demanding Yank.

I'm actually not sure what the provisions are in this regard - I simply (and possibly incorrectly) presumed they hadn't changed since back then.

If you want an answer from officialdom here, always write to the Minister - in this case the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government (minister@environ.ie). The mandarins should provide an answer within 2 weeks.

[Kevinstat]

Looking at Irish election law at an Irish government web site awhile back, I couldn't see any provision for a by-election where more than one TD was to be elected (although I know there were two such elections on the same day in the 1920, with both constituencies electing one CG and one Republican (precurser to FF)).  The language seemed to indicate a presumption that only one TD was to be elected.  I tried to write a question about that, but either I messed up in the submission form or the people who got the message didn't see any reason to reply to a demanding Yank.

I'm actually not sure what the provisions are in this regard - I simply (and possibly incorrectly) presumed they hadn't changed since back then.

If you want an answer from officialdom here, always write to the Minister - in this case the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government (minister@environ.ie). The mandarins should provide an answer within 2 weeks.

Thanks, Jas.  I'll do that.

[Јas]

The Green Party has voted to endorse the Lisbon Treaty.

Last time out, the party narrowly failed to get the necessary ²/₃ majority at their special delegate conference and so didn't actively campaign either way.

This evening, (and following a small but significant number of party defections in recent months) the party confirmed (after a number of recounts) that today's conference voted 214-107, precisely ²/₃ in favour and so the party will be actively campaigning in favour of Lisbon.

It's the first European treaty that I can remember that the Greens will be supporting.

[Hash]

Didn't Green voters vote NO to Lisbon last year?

[Јas]

Didn't Green voters vote NO to Lisbon last year?

Indeed so. According to the Eurobaromoter poll just after the vote they went 43-57. The wider party leadership (as those at the conference) is more inclined towrads realpolitiking than the grassroots though.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Green Party has voted to endorse the Lisbon Treaty.

Last time out, the party narrowly failed to get the necessary ²/₃ majority at their special delegate conference and so didn't actively campaign either way.

This evening, (and following a small but significant number of party defections in recent months) the party confirmed (after a number of recounts) that today's conference voted 214-107, precisely ²/₃ in favour and so the party will be actively campaigning in favour of Lisbon.

It's the first European treaty that I can remember that the Greens will be supporting.

Someone needs to go searching in Ranelagh and Ballsbridge.. as a missing spine needs to be returned to its owners.

Oh Well. What I expected really. Any polls, I haven't been following Oirish news at all here in the Great White North.

[Јas]

The Green Party has voted to endorse the Lisbon Treaty.

Last time out, the party narrowly failed to get the necessary ²/₃ majority at their special delegate conference and so didn't actively campaign either way.

This evening, (and following a small but significant number of party defections in recent months) the party confirmed (after a number of recounts) that today's conference voted 214-107, precisely ²/₃ in favour and so the party will be actively campaigning in favour of Lisbon.

It's the first European treaty that I can remember that the Greens will be supporting.

Someone needs to go searching in Ranelagh and Ballsbridge.. as a missing spine needs to be returned to its owners.

Oh Well. What I expected really. Any polls, I haven't been following Oirish news at all here in the Great White North.

Haven't been any polls post-elections yet, and all the media coverage has been about the economy and the Bord Snip report. Lisbon isn't really getting any significant coverage at the moment.

How's the trip going?

[Harry Hayfield]

A leading Green says that a general election in 2009 has a "40:60" chance and that "getting to January will be difficult"

In the BBC report, we do have a poll (which I suspect must be fairly recent)

FG 34%
Lab 24%
FF 17%
SF 10%
Green 3%

[Јas]

A leading Green says that a general election in 2009 has a "40:60" chance and that "getting to January will be difficult"

Yes, well Dan would say that. He'll probably be leading the re-negotiations for the Greens on the Programme for Government.

In the BBC report, we do have a poll (which I suspect must be fairly recent)

FG 34%
Lab 24%
FF 17%
SF 10%
Green 3%

It's from today's Irish Times.
Gully posted it earlier this morning.

[Јas]

Following on from the release of party support yesterday, we have Lisbon numbers today from the TNSmrbi/Irish Times poll: 46-29-25

(The last TNSmrbi poll in May had the numbers at: 53-28-18)

The campaign proper for Lisbon II has only started in the last few days. It looks like the Yes side will be going full tilt on the idea that a Yes vote is crucial to our economy. Despite the agreed legal guarantees/Irish Protocol, it would be very surprising if the No side changed any of the arguments they've ran since 1973.

I think the polling from earlier in the year may have (somewhat remarkably) led the Yes side to a certain degree of complacency. I don't think that result is a given by any means.

4 weeks to polling day...

[Јas]

Breakdown on Lisbon support by party, gender, class...

FF 62 -23
FG 58 -23
Lab 43 -31
G 31-36
SF 13-66
 
Men 52-31
Women 41-26

Class
AB 68 -16
DE 32 -35


Likely to vote
74% very likely
13% fairly likely 
2% fairly unlikely
6% very unlikely 
5% no opinion

91% of Yes voters said they were very likely to vote; 70% of No voters.


Q: In the light of the current economic crisis, are we better off to be part of the EU?
80-9-11

[Јas]

New poll numbers today from RedC/Sunday Business Post

3 weeks out on Lisbon: 52-25-23
Last time out, the yes side had similar commanding margins about this far out, which collapsed in the final week. However, I don't recall the yes side topping 50 in polling at any stage last time.


Also, their first party support poll since the Local/European elections in June.

	RedC	TNSmrbi	RedC	General
	Sept 13	Sept 3	May 31	May 2007
Fine Gael	33	34	34	27.3
Fianna Fáil	24	17	21	41.6
Labour	19	24	18	10.1
Sinn Féin	8	10	10	6.9
Green	5	3	4	4.7
Other	11	12	13	6.6

Sizable diverence between the pollsters as to where FF and Labour are - whereas there has been a firm consistency about FG, who have been holding fairly steady for about a year now.

[Јas]

Decided to try and map some maps on the Local Elections from May. The local electoral areas unfortunately don't match up with Dáil constituencies, so that leads to necessary fudging. Nonetheless...

Fianna Fáil