Ireland 2009

[Јas]

Nominations for the European elections closed at noon today.

The candidates (incumbents marked with a *)...

Dublin
Cllr. Eibhlin Byrne (FF)
- Elected to Dublin City Council in 2004, Byrne is the sitting Lord Mayor of Dublin. In this election, her job is to be election fodder for her running mate.

Sen. Deirdre De Burca (Green)
- A councillor in Wicklow from 1999, De Burca has twice sought election to the Dáil there performing reasonably in 2007. She was one of two Greens appointed to the Senate as one of the Taoiseach's nominations following that election. Loyal to the 'realo' wing of the party. The test will be how well she performes against ex-Green Dublin MEP and former member of the 'fundy' wing of the Greens, Patricia McKenna.
 
Proinsias De Rossa* (Lab)
- Seeking his 3rd consecutive term and 4th term overall, De Rossa will be confident of holding the seat. The former 6-term TD (for variously, Sinn Féin - The Worlers' Party, The Workers' Party and Democratic Left) has vast experience and being the sole Labour candidate shouldn't have any difficulty.

Joe Higgins (Socialist)
- This is Higgins's 3rd straight effort at winning a seat here after netting 3.8% and 5.5% of the vote in 1999 and 2004 respectively. The former 2-term TD lost his seat in 2007 after his constituency lost a seat. Not likely to be a contender this time, but his transfers could be important.

Mary Lou McDonald* (SF)
- Took the 4th and final seat in 2004, McDonald will do well to win now that there is one less seat. She is well thought of by the SF leadership, made party VP recently and has largely been the face of SF in the south despite now twice failing to get elected to the Dáil. Her most recent effort was in Dublin Central and there was some speculation that she would run in the by-election.

Patricia McKenna (Ind)
- Former 2-term Dublin MEP who lost her seat in 2004 (14.5%, 12.7%, 9.6%), she was the most prominent of the anti-Government Greens until she left the party last week, McKenna has no real chance of election here. The contest will be McKenna v De Burca. This may mark part of McKenna's long descent into obscurity.

Gay Mitchell* (FG)
- The former 8-term TD surprised everyone by electing to run for Europe in 2004 and thus abandoning his Dáil seat. Then a leading member of FG, now ?. Anyway, his seat is safe.

Eoin Ryan* (FF)
- A former 3-term TD who won election to Europe in 2004, Ryan will have to fight to win re-election. FF only polled 23% in 2004 and can't afford to let that drop too far such that the 25% quota goes out of reach.

Caroline Simmons (Libertas)
- A solicitor with no electoral experience, Simmons will do well to beat many of her fellow candidates.

Emmanuel Sweeney (Ind)
- Appears to be a veteran of defunct obscure parties, Mr Sweeney is the prohibitive favourite to take the wooden spoon here.

Recent Party Performance: Dublin

	2004	1999	1994
Fianna Fáil	23	25	21
Fine Gael	22	30	24
Labour	22	16	14
Green	10	13	15
Sinn Féin	14	7	3
Socialist	6	4	-

East
Liam Aylward* (FF)
- Former 9-term TD, elected easily enough to Europe is 2004 with the help of his running-mate. There was some difficulty in finding a suitable running-mate this time to help accomplish the same goal. The seat is vulnerable.

Thomas Byrne TD (FF)
- Elected to the Dáil for Meath East in 2007, Byrne is running becasue the Taoiseach asked him to (and apparantly against the advice of his local electoral team). Not even FF want Byrne to win as the party has no appetite for further by-elections - the Dáil majority is already getting too close for comfort.

Nessa Childers (Lab)
- Daughter of former President Erskine Childers (FF), Nessa was elected to a local council in south Dublin in 2004 for the Greens. She defected to Labour last autumn and is well placed to win a European seat in this election.

Kathleen Funchion (SF)
- A young candidate who ran in the General in Carlow-Kilkenny in 2007 but failed to make much impact. This run should increase her profile and maybe help her out for the next General, whenever that may be.

Paddy Garvey (Ind)
- Seems to be someone taking the piss - but can't seem to find out anything substantive yet. I'm all in favour of that.

Micheál E Grealy  (Ind)
- Can't seem to find much, but from what little I can cobble together he seems to be quite...anti-establishment.

Mairéad McGuinness* (FG)
- Former RTÉ Agriculture journalist, turner celebrity candidate, McGuinness helped FG to a dream result in 2004 winning along with her running mate, the now retiring Avril Doyle. McGuinness should walk to re-election. A possible FG nominee for President in 2011.

Raymond O'Malley (Libertas)
- The lowest profile of Libertas's Irish candidates, O'Malley has no electoral experience. He was once a senior member of the Irish Farmers Association, and will very likely revert to anonymity after 5 June.

Sen. John Paul Phelan (FG)
- Phelan narrowly lost out in Carlow-Kilkenny in 2007, and is well placed to capitalise when the next election is called. In the mean-time helping to hold FG's 2 seats in this constituency will be a tough task, despite FG's high-flying in the polls.

Cllr. Tomás Sharkey (SF)
- Sharkey has been a local Councillor in Dundalk, Co. Louth since 2003. Like his running-mate, election isn't the real goal here, this is about picking up profile and experience.

Jim Tallon (Ind)
- Tallon has a lot of experience at not getting elected, having made 12 attempts to get into the Dáil. (His best performance was in 1982, when he netted 0.41% of the vote.) This will be his first failure to get elected to Europe.

Recent Party Performance: East (formerly Leinster)

	2004	1999	1994
Fianna Fáil	25	34	33
Fine Gael	41	34	28
Labour	13	11	15
Green	6	14	12
Sinn Féin	9	6	2

More later...

[Kevinstat]

The Greens have no candidate in the East (Irish) European Parliamentary constituency?

Also, since it is part of the island of Ireland (many would say more than that), can you (after North-West and South) do a candidate list for an analysis of the Northern Ireland constituency?

[Јas]

North West
Pat Gallagher TD (FF)
- 8-term TD froim Donegal and former 2-term MEP, Gallagher has been drafted in to help hoover up votes for FF. As with Thomas Byrne in Ireland East, this isn’t a candidate FF want to win for fear of triggering a by-election that would narrow the Government majority further.

Declan Ganley (Libertas)
- Libertas leader. If he’s right he will be leading 100 new Libertas MEPs in Europe shortly. Ganley’s only electoral experience has been in campaigning against the Lisbon Treaty.

Marian Harkin* (Ind)
- Former TD for Sligo-Leitrim, Harkin won election to Europe on her second attempt in 2004. It can be very difficult for Independents to maintain their vote and similarly difficult to judge how likely that is. As a piece of trivia, she is the only candidate I’ve voted for in an election that won.

Jim Higgins* (FG)
- A former 4-term TD from Mayo, Higgins is looking for his 2nd European term. He should safely retain his seat.

John Francis Higgins (Ind)
- Mr Higgins from Sligo successfully sourced 89 votes in the 2007 General (0.22%). Will he surprise everyone and cobble together the 90,000+ that will be needed to win this time? Probably not…

Thomas King (Ind)
- King will be competing against Higgins for the wooden spoon. He got 60 votes (0.11%) in his run for the Dáil in Galway West in 2007.

Cllr. Padraig MacLochlainn (SF)
- MacLochlainn is a local councillor in Donegal who has made 2 attempts to get elected to the Dáil – the last of which in 2007, he made a good effort at, hampered as SF normally are, by trying to squeeze into a 3-seater. MacLochlainn should be a contender for a seat here.

Noel McCullagh (Ind)
- Mr McCullagh is from Balinasloe, Co. Galway but lives in the Netherlands. He’s been diagnosed with MS and has taken issue with not being allowed medical marijuana. I presume that’s the reasoning behind the campaign. Unlikely to make an impact.

Michael McNamara (Ind)
- A Clare-based farmer and barrister. He seems to be behind reform.ie, which advocates the reform of local government and the EU. Another Independent with no real chance.

Paschal Mooney (FF)
- A Leitrim based ex-Senator, Mr Mooney is clearly less than amused with the party’s decision to put up Pat Gallagher as his running-mate – the decision having been only confirmed on nomination day.

Susan O'Keefe (Lab)
- No previous electoral experience. Ms O’Keefe is best known for working on uncovering corruption in the Irish beef industry in the early 90s. Somewhat surprising that Labour couldn’t find a stronger candidate – Ms O’Keefe only joining the party a few weeks ago has no electoral experience. If the (scant) polling is anything to go by Labour have the potential to win a seat here. We’ll see.

Fiachra O Luain (Ind)
- Another first timer. Donegal-based, Mr O Luain wants a sustainable green economy and to protect Irish neutrality. Unlikely to get anywhere.

Sen. Joe O'Reilly (FG)
- Cavan based, vote sweeper for running-mate Jim Higgins. Maybe…maybe FG could sneak 2 in here if FF implode, Libertas gain no traction, Labour’s candidate really is not good enough and Marian Harkin’s vote struggles to hold up. Maybe…

Recent Party performances: North-West (formerly Connacht-Ulster)

	2004	1999	1994
Fianna Fáil	27	36	42
Fine Gael	24	20	30
Labour	3	3	9
Sinn Féin	16	6	6
Green	-	-	4

South
Dan Boyle (Green)
- Green Party chairman and TD for Cork South Central from 2002-07 losing out a Labour gain in 2007. He was subsequently appointed to the Seanad by the Taoiseach where he is the Green leader. (The only other Green Senator being Deirdre de Burca running in Dublin.) Boyle ran for Europe in Munster in 1994 coming 11th - a feat he can’t fail to better in this field of 10 candidates. He will hope to improve significantly on their 2004 performance of 2% but can’t really pin hopes on election.

Colm Burke* (FG)
- Technically an incumbent, Burke inherited his seat following the election of Simon Coveney to the Dáil in 2007. Formerly a Councillor in Cork, Burke is less than pleased with having a celebrity running mate who might cost him his job.

Brian Crowley* (FF)
- A 4-term MEP and FF’s European leader and sometime mentioned Presidential hopeful. The party’s safest seat at a time when safe seats are hard to come by.

Cllr. Toireasa Ferris (SF)
-   Ferris would win probably easily win the best looking candidate contest but will do well to win anything else in this election. Daughter of SF TD Martin Ferris, Toireasa became a local Councillor in 2003.

Sen. Alan Kelly (Lab)
- Last year’s top receiver of political donations, Kelly has limited political experience – having made it to the Senate in 2007. Labour will be hoping to make a leap from their 4% performance 5 years ago and take a seat.

Seán Kelly (FG)
- A big-name newcomer, Kelly was recently the President of the GAA, Ireland’s largest sporting organisation, which runs our 2 biggest sports, Gaelic football and hurling. FG had almost exactly 1 quota – so it’s unlikely FG can force 2 successes here – though Kelly may have some reach beyond FG’s traditional reach.

Ned O'Keeffe TD (FF)
FF rebel, O’Keefe is though the holder of another seat in the Dáil the party would be unwise to let go. In this case though, O’Keefe would do surprisingly well to unseat his party colleague. The 7-term TD will probably be back in the Dáil shortly to cause concern for the Government, having only recently rejoining the parliamentary party after 4 months as an Independent following his vote of no confidence in the Minister for Health.

Maurice Sexton (Ind)
-   

Kathy Sinnott* (Ind)
- Sinnott is seeking a second term and like most Independents must be concerned about the stability of her vote. A disability rights campaigner, but also probably the most high-profile of the conservative Catholic politicians on the national stage. She has been endorsed by Libertas, as she is anti-Lisbon (and, of course, because they couldn’t find a suitable candidate themselves).

Alexander Stafford (Ind)
- A consultant radiologist in Limerick, running for the first time, campaigning for equal access to the health service.

Recent Party performances: South (formerly Munster)

	2004	1999	1994
Fianna Fáil	41	53	42
Fine Gael	25	17	19
Labour	4	6	7
Sinn Féin	7	6	1
Green	2	2	3

[Јas]

The Greens have no candidate in the East (Irish) European Parliamentary constituency?

Indeed; nor in Ireland North-West.
Only the 2 party Senators are running. They have no real prospect of winning a seat anywhere. The reasons for these two are most likely to retain profile for the individuals.

The party candidate totals are as follows:

Fianna Fáil	8	2 in each
Fine Gael	7	2 in each except Dublin
Sinn Féin	5	2 in East, 1 in others
Labour	4	1 in each
Libertas	3	1 in each, except South where they have endorsed Kathy Sinnot (Ind)
Green	2	1 in Dublin and South
Socialist	1	Dublin
Independent	14	Dublin 2; East 3; North-West 6; South 3

Also, since it is part of the island of Ireland (many would say more than that), can you (after North-West and South) do a candidate list for an analysis of the Northern Ireland constituency?

Coming up

[Јas]

Northern Ireland
Steven Agnew (Green)
- Got 2% in Belfast East in the 2007 Assembly race. Will do well not to be the first eliminated.

Jim Allister* (TUV)
- Allister is the leader, founder and most high profile member of Traditonal Unionist Voice – a party set up in opposition to the DUP decision to enter power-sharing with Sinn Féin. They are anti-Good Friday and St. Andrew’s Agreements, against mandatory power sharing, but pro-‘family values’. The result of this election may decide whether the party has a future.

Bairbre de Brún* (SF)
- deBrún should hold her seat with ease. The only question will be whether or not SF top the poll.

Dianne Dodds (DUP)
- Wife of senior DUP member Nigel Dodds, and former MLA for West Belfast – she lost out in the 2007 Assembly election to supreme SF vote management. Must be strongly favoured to take a seat.

Alban Maginness MLA (SDLP)
- Former Party Chair and current MLA for North Belfast, McGuinness can’t really hope to unseat SF and picking up a seat from a Unionist seems out of the question.

Jim Nicholson* (UUP)
- An MEP since 1989, this is probably the biggest test he’s faced yet as nobody can really judge the impact of Allister as a TUV candidate will be. The surplus nationalist vote is most likely to go here than to the other two main unionist candidates, so that may be enough to see him through.

Ian Parsley (Alliance)
- A Councillor in North Down, Parsley’s best hope for election is mass confusion with his near namesake from Ballymena.

Recent Party performances: Northern Ireland

	2004	1999	1994
DUP	32	28	29
SF	26	17	10
UUP	17	18	24
SDLP	16	28	29
Alliance	-	2	4
Green	1	-	-

[Јas]

Irish Times/TNSmrbipoll released today (usually the most accurate pollster)
Largest sample size I can recall ever for an Irish poll: 2000

Asked about voting if a General Election was held tomorrow:

	15 May	13 Feb	26 Apr	May 2007
	MRBI	MRBI	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	38	32	33	27
Fianna Fáil	21	22	23	42
Labour	20	24	19	10
Sinn Féin	9	9	8	7
Green	3	4	7	5
Ind/Other	9	8	10	9

A new record high for Fine Gael; a new record low for Fianna Fáil.
On these numbers FF support has halved since the General Election in May 07 (41.6%), with Labour and Fine Gael gaining in almost equal measure.


Satisfaction Ratings
The Government: 10-86 (Satisfieds: -4)
Taoiseach Brian Cowen (FF): 18-75 (-6)
Enda Kenny (FG): 33-47 (+3)
Eamon Gilmore (Lab): 51-24 (+7)
John Gormley (GP): 25-50 (-4)
Gerry Adams (SF): 34-38 (+2)

Government appear now to have poll ratings similar to famine, war and pestilence. Probably still marginally ahead of death.
Fianna Fáil voters on the Government: 33-63
Green voters on Government: 93% dissatisfied
Green voters are the only ones who approve of John Gormley's performance.
Despite leading the most popular party, Enda Kenny is still easily within net disapproval territory (-14).
Only Eamon Gilmore has net positive ratings (+27) but seems to have reached the limits of party support, fluctuating in the high teens-low 20s.


Asked about intentions in the Local Elections:

	15 May	26 Apr
	MRBI	RedC
Fine Gael	33	29
Fianna Fáil	20	23
Labour	20	20
Sinn Féin	10	9
Green	3	7
Ind/Other	14	12

The notable difference from the General Election poll figures is that there is a shift from FG to Ind/Other. Other than that differences are negligible.

[Tender Branson]

Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll with regional EU breakdown:

The poll was conducted amongst a representative sample of 500 voters in each of the four European constituencies. Voters were presented with the names and affiliations of each candidate and asked to indicate their preferences.

Dublin

Gay Mitchell (FG): 26%
Proinsias De Rossa (Labour): 21%
Mary Lou McDonald (SF): 14%
Eoin Ryan (FF): 11%

North West

Jim Higgins (FG): 20%
Pat Gallagher (FF): 19%
Marian Harkin (Independent): 18%
Declan Ganley (Libertas): 9%
Joe O’Reilly (FG): 8%
Paschal Mooney (FF): 7%

South

Brian Crowley (FF): 27%
Seán Kelly (FG): 17%
Alan Kelly (Labour): 13%
Kathy Sinnott (Independent): 12%
Toireasa Ferris (SF): 12%
Colm Burke (FG): 10%

East

Mairéad McGuinness (FG): 33%
Liam Aylward (FF): 19%
Nessa Childers (Labour): 17%
John Paul Phelan (FG): 9%
Tomás Sharkey (SF): 7%

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0516/1224246692541.html

[Јas]

Dublin

Gay Mitchell (FG): 26%
Proinsias De Rossa (Labour): 21%
Mary Lou McDonald (SF): 14%
Eoin Ryan (FF): 11%
Patricia McKenna (Ind): 8%
Joe Higgins (Socialist): 7%
Deirdre De Burca (Green): 6%
Eibhlin Byrne (FF): 5%
Carolina Simmons (Libertas): 1%
Emmanual Sweeney (Ind): 1%

Bearing in mind 3 seats - a quota of 25% - Mitchell and De Rossa look, unsurprisingly safe. The last seat is between McDonald and Ryan. Ryan should pick up most of Byrne's transfers, but outside that he'll probably lose to mcDonald on the transfers from Simmons, Higgins and McKenna. De Burca's could go either way. On these numbers, it doesn't look like enough for FF.

North West

Jim Higgins (FG): 20%
Pat Gallagher (FF): 19%
Marian Harkin (Independent): 18%
Pádraig MacLochlainn (SF): 10%
Declan Ganley (Libertas): 9%
Joe O’Reilly (FG): 8%
Paschal Mooney (FF): 7%
Susan O'Keefe (Labour): 6%
JF Higgins (Ind): 2%
T King (Ind): 1%
N McCullough (Ind): 0%
M McNamara (Ind): 0%
F Ó Luain (Ind): 0%

Higgins is safe, especially when you note the 8% of his running mate. Nonetheless, FG would expect better. Gallagher looks safe when mooney's 7% is taken into account. This though means a by-election to fill Gallagher's Dáil seat and would no doubt shave the Government majority even closer to the bone.
The last seat looks like Harkin's (I imagine she'll do well from O'Keefe's transfers) but noting that Libertas and SF are big name anti-Lisbon groups, the possibility of strong transfers and 3 weeks for things to develop mean that it can't be called just yet.

South

Brian Crowley (FF): 27%
Seán Kelly (FG): 17%
Alan Kelly (Labour): 13%
Kathy Sinnott (Ind): 12%
Toireasa Ferris (SF): 12%
Colm Burke (FG): 10%
Ned O'Keefe (FF): 4%
Dan Boyle (Green): 3%
M sexton (Ind): 1%
A Stafford (Ind): 1%

Brian Crowley proves himself to be one of FF's few election proof people right now.
Seán Kelly looks set to unseat the FG incumbent (with the help of said incumbent's transfers no doubt).
The last seat looks like the closest to call between all 4 constituencies. There's really no telling which way it'll go.

East

Mairéad McGuinness (FG): 33%
Liam Aylward (FF): 19%
Nessa Childers (Labour): 17%
John Paul Phelan (FG): 9%
Tomás Sharkey (SF): 7%
Kathleen Funchion (SF): 4%
Thomas Byrne (FF): 3%
Ray O'Malley (Libertas): 3%
J Tallon (Ind): 2%
P Garvey (Ind): 2%
M Grealy (Ind): 1%

McGuinness can stop campaigning now it seems.
Aylward looks like he can hold the FF seat.
The last one is probably Labour's - though if FG could manage their vote properly, it is holdable.
Despite FG soaring in the polls, these numbers look like they might lose a seat in this election.

[Јas]

Final part of the TNSmrbi poll....
Lisbon: 52-29-19    (+1-4:+3)

By Party
Fianna Fáil: 65-22
Fine Gael: 61-24
Labour Party: 54-33
Sinn Féin: 29-49
Greens: 60-29

By class:
AB: 67-17
C1: 56-25
DE: 40-38
Farmers: 62-21

In the light of the current economic crisis, is it better to be part of the EU?
79-10-11

[Јas]

Yesterday saw the release of the monthly Sunday Business Post/RedC polls...
(Comparisons are with the TNSmrbi poll on Friday; the last monthly RedC poll and the last actual election in each case)

General Election

	17 May	15 May	26 Apr	2007
	RedC	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	34	38	33	27
Fianna Fáil	24	21	23	42
Labour	18	20	19	10
Sinn Féin	7	9	8	7
Green	5	3	7	5
Ind/Other	12	9	10	9

The TNSmrbi numbers on Friday gave the Greens an almighty scare and are speculated to be a prime reason (along with the voter reactions they're facing on the canvass) for the surprise announcement that they want to renegotiate the Programme for Government (that is the agreement reached between FF and the Greens on the policies of the Government after the General Election in May 2007). Some suggest that this move for re-negotiation is part of an exit strategy from Government. Anyway, it won't happen until after the upcoming elections so we'll have to wait and see...


Local Elections

	17 May	15 May	26 Apr	2004
	RedC	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	34	33	29	28
Fianna Fáil	22	20	23	32
Labour	16	20	20	11
Sinn Féin	8	10	9	8
Green	4	3	7	4
Ind/Other	16	14	12	17

As usual the country is plastered with election posters for anyone and everyone. A new feature this time though is Fianna Fáil candidates using their posters to hide/disguise that they are in fact FF candidates by minimising their logo or playing around with colours. Apparantly the shame is now too much for some.


European Elections

	17 May	15 May	26 Apr	2004
	RedC	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	32	31	32	28
Fianna Fáil	25	24	25	29
Labour	16	14	17	11
Sinn Féin	7	12	8	11
Green	5	2	7	4
Libertas	3	3	2	-
Ind/Other	12	14	10	17

Hopefully a breakdown of the RedC constituency numbers will be available soon (though given the sample size, won't be as useful as Friday's MRBI poll).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Prediction Time:

Dublin South: Easy (and I will be voting, yay!): George Lee in a cantor. Only question whether he will be elected on the first count or not; Shay Brennan will get second on the family name. Alex White will be third; and I will probably be one of those helping him; even though I increasingly dislike the Labour party.

Dublin Central: Much tougher call, possibly a Gregory-Independent Hold? Fianna Fail might even win on transfers... but I'll go with O'Sullivan on Bacik's (and SFs) Transfers. Donaghue to finish second... where will he get the transfers?

Europe:
Dublin: 1FG 1LAB 1SF
North West: 1FF 1FG 1IND (Lol@Libertas)
South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB... but where will Sinnott transfer to is the big question for the third seat, It might be FG so if the second candidate can lean himself ahead of Sinnott by the time she is eliminated (she won't win this time, I don't rate her transfer potential) then possibly a 2nd seat for Fine Gael?
East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

I should note that I have hardly being much attention to these and so is mostly guess work.

[Јas]

Prediction Time:

Dublin South: Easy (and I will be voting, yay!): George Lee in a cantor. Only question whether he will be elected on the first count or not; Shay Brennan will get second on the family name. Alex White will be third; and I will probably be one of those helping him; even though I increasingly dislike the Labour party.

Hello again Gully!

May as well throw in some predictions.
Let's be daring insane and give a predicted 1st count...

Lee (FG) 43.1%
White (Lab) 23.4%
Brennan (FF) 20.1%
Tracey (SF) 7.1%
Davidson (Grn) 5.1%
O'Mullane (Ind) 0.7%
O'Gorman (Ind) 0.4%
O'Gara (Ind) 0.1%

(MoE 100%)

Lee to win comfortably - very surprising if he comes in <40%; not all that surprising if he tops 50%. I'm guessing he'll be on the lower side of this range though.
White v Brennan for #2 spot. Fairly disappointing for Labour if they can't take second place.

Dublin Central: Much tougher call, possibly a Gregory-Independent Hold? Fianna Fail might even win on transfers... but I'll go with O'Sullivan on Bacik's (and SFs) Transfers. Donaghue to finish second... where will he get the transfers?

Donoghue (FG) 24.7%
Ahern (FF) 20.4%
Bacik (Lab) 20.1%
O'Sullivan (Gregory-ite) 15.9%
Burke (SF) 15.5%
Geary (Grn) 2.2%
O'Loughlin (CSP) 0.7%
Steenson (WP) 0.4%
Talbot (ICP) 0.3%

(MoE 200%)

In other words, I expect the top 5 candidates to split up the vote pretty well and nobody else to factor. I don't see Ahern winning. One of Bacik, O'Sullivan or Burke v. Donoghue in the end. Donoghue probably only stands a chance here against Burke, and I still wouldn't bet on him winning even against him. 

Europe:
Dublin: 1FG 1LAB 1SF
North West: 1FF 1FG 1IND (Lol@Libertas)
South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB... but where will Sinnott transfer to is the big question for the third seat, It might be FG so if the second candidate can lean himself ahead of Sinnott by the time she is eliminated (she won't win this time, I don't rate her transfer potential) then possibly a 2nd seat for Fine Gael?
East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

I should note that I have hardly being much attention to these and so is mostly guess work.

Largely agree. (Though I'll hold off LOLing at Libertas just yet. Hopefully the results will allay my concerns.)

[Јas]

Irish Times/TNSmrbi poll released today.
Another abnormally large sample of 2000, in what is presumably the last TNSmrbi poll prior to the election.

General Election

	29 May	15 May	17 May	2007
	TNSmrbi	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	36	38	34	27
Labour	23	20	18	10
Fianna Fáil	20	21	24	42
Sinn Féin	8	9	7	7
Green	3	3	5	5
Ind/Other	10	9	12	9

A new record low for FF, just 20% - beaten once again by Labour. FG down a little but still far, far out in front.


Local Elections

	29 May	15 May	17 May	2004
	TNSmrbi	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	32	33	34	28
Labour	20	20	16	11
Fianna Fáil	18	20	22	32
Sinn Féin	8	10	8	8
Green	3	3	4	4
Ind/Other	19	14	16	17

Each of the big 3 are down 2-3pts on their polling on the General Election question, all of it to the benefit of Independents and others, who are at their most high profile and noticeable just before an election, as now. Are FF really only on 18%? We'll see...


Satisfaction Ratings
Government 12-84 (Satisfieds: +2)
Taoiseach Brian Cowen (FF) 21-71 (+3)
Enda Kenny (FG) 31-50 (-2)
Eamon Gilmore (Lab) 49-25 (-2)
John Gormley (Grn) 27-48 (+2)
Gerry Adams (SF) 33-38 (-1)

Satisfaction in the Government increases for the first time since May 2008, when they were at 48%.

We're very likely to see polls on the 4 Euro constituencies in tomorrow's edition (and probably Lisbon numbers as well).

RedC are very liekly to have their final pre-election poll out on Sunday and it wouldn't be altogether surprising if one of the other less frequent pollsters produce something in the coming days as well.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

And there is still three years to go till the next general election....

[Tender Branson]

Latest TNS-mrbi poll for The Irish Times by constituency:

Dublin:

Gay Mitchell (FG): 28%
Proinsias De Rossa (Labour): 25%
Mary Lou McDonald (SF): 11%
Eoin Ryan (FF): 9%
Joe Higgins (SP): 9%
Déirdre de Búrca (Greens): 6%
Patricia McKenna (Ind.): 5%
Eibhlin Byrne (FF): 5%
Caroline Simmons (Libertas): 2%

North West:

Pat Gallagher (FF): 20%
Marian Harkin (Ind.): 19%
Jim Higgins (FG): 17%
Joe O’Reilly (FG): 10%
Declan Ganley (Libertas): 9%
Pádraig Mac Lochlainn (SF): 9%

South:

Brian Crowley (FF): 30%
Seán Kelly (FG): 16%
Kathy Sinott (Ind.): 14%
Alan Kelly (Labour): 12%
Toireasa Ferris (SF): 10%
Colm Burke (FG): 10%

East:

Mairead McGuinness (FG): 29%
Nessa Childers (Labour): 21%
Liam Aylward (FF): 20%
John Paul Phelan (FG): 7%
Tomás Sharkey (SF): 7%

[Tender Branson]

HOT !

[minionofmidas]

How do you pronounce that (the first name. I think I have a pretty good idea how to pronounce "Ferris".)

[Tender Branson]

How do you pronounce that (the first name. I think I have a pretty good idea how to pronounce "Ferris".)

I think it is pronounced like "Ty-ree-suh" (something like Mother Teresa).

Maybe the Irish amongst us know better ...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I usually say Tuh-ree-zah. But might just be me.

Not hot and also a Shinner.

[Јas]

Latest TNS-mrbi poll for The Irish Times by constituency:

Dublin:

Gay Mitchell (FG): 28%
Proinsias De Rossa (Labour): 25%
Mary Lou McDonald (SF): 11%
Eoin Ryan (FF): 9%
Joe Higgins (SP): 9%
Déirdre de Búrca (Greens): 6%
Patricia McKenna (Ind.): 5%
Eibhlin Byrne (FF): 5%
Caroline Simmons (Libertas): 2%

Mitchell and de Rossa obviously safe.
That last seat though is too close to call on these numbers - Ryan should gain the great majority of Byrne's #2s, but after that I'm not sure what will happen to deBúrca and McKenna's transfers.

North West:

Pat Gallagher (FF): 20%
Marian Harkin (Ind.): 19%
Jim Higgins (FG): 17%
Joe O’Reilly (FG): 10%
Declan Ganley (Libertas): 9%
Pádraig Mac Lochlainn (SF): 9%

Looks rapped up to me, especially when Paschal Mooney's (FF) 7% and Susan O'Keefe's (Lab) 5% are considered.

South:

Brian Crowley (FF): 30%
Seán Kelly (FG): 16%
Kathy Sinott (Ind.): 14%
Alan Kelly (Labour): 12%
Toireasa Ferris (SF): 10%
Colm Burke (FG): 10%

An unusual question here, where will the expired FF votes go. Crowley has a 5% surplus here, and Ned O'Keefe (FF) has another 4%, these votes could be crucial. Dan Boyle's 3% will also play a part given the tightness of the race here.
Sean Kelly should be fine, he'll soak up transfers from everywhere I'd imagine.
I'd suggest Alan Kelly should just about get there on these figures, but Kathy Sinnott is in with more than a shouting chance.

East:

Mairead McGuinness (FG): 29%
Nessa Childers (Labour): 21%
Liam Aylward (FF): 20%
John Paul Phelan (FG): 7%
Tomás Sharkey (SF): 7%

This constituency looks done as well, an almost certain FG loss to Labour. Despite soaring popularity in the polls this would mean FG come out net losers in the European elections, they'll need good results elsewhere on Friday to save their blushes.

[Јas]

Tomorrow's Sunday Business Post/RedC poll...

General Election

	31 May	29 May	17 May	2007
	RedC	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	34	36	34	27
Fianna Fáil	21	20	24	42
Labour	18	23	18	10
Sinn Féin	10	8	7	7
Green	4	3	5	5
Ind/Other	13	10	12	9

Largely consistent with the TNSmrbi poll of the other day, except with a 5% spread on the Labour vote. Guess we'll have to wait and see on that.

They're probably be more details on locals/Europeans tomorrow.

[nemesis2004]

I usually say Tuh-ree-zah. But might just be me.

Not hot and also a Shinner.

Yes, I believe it's pronounced "Daughter of a convicted gun-runner"....what was that Obama said about lipstick and pigs?

I remember when Alessandra Mussolini looked easy on the eye too...

[Kevinstat]

Tomorrow's Sunday Business Post/RedC poll...

General Election

	31 May	29 May	17 May	2007
	RedC	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	34	36	34	27
Fianna Fáil	21	20	24	42
Labour	18	23	18	10
Sinn Féin	10	8	7	7
Green	4	3	5	5
Ind/Other	13	10	12	9

Largely consistent with the TNSmrbi poll of the other day, except with a 5% spread on the Labour vote. Guess we'll have to wait and see on that.

They're probably be more details on locals/Europeans tomorrow.

So, are there any more recent polls?  Has polling for the local, European, and Dail by-elections stopped by now?  (I know those elections are on Friday)  What's the latest buzz?

[Јas]

Tomorrow's Sunday Business Post/RedC poll...

General Election

	31 May	29 May	17 May	2007
	RedC	TNSmrbi	RedC	Election
Fine Gael	34	36	34	27
Fianna Fáil	21	20	24	42
Labour	18	23	18	10
Sinn Féin	10	8	7	7
Green	4	3	5	5
Ind/Other	13	10	12	9

Largely consistent with the TNSmrbi poll of the other day, except with a 5% spread on the Labour vote. Guess we'll have to wait and see on that.

They're probably be more details on locals/Europeans tomorrow.

So, are there any more recent polls?  Has polling for the local, European, and Dail by-elections stopped by now?  (I know those elections are on Friday)  What's the latest buzz?

I note that I didn't get around to putting up the numbers for the Locals and Europeans from the same poll...

Local Elections

	31 May	17 May	29 May	2004
	RedC	RedC	TNSmrbi	Election
Fine Gael	32	34	32	28
Fianna Fáil	20	22	18	32
Labour	17	16	20	11
Sinn Féin	10	8	8	8
Green	4	4	3	4
Ind/Other	17	16	19	17

In 2004, they said that FF hit rock bottom - that only the core vote turned out. If the polling is right though, tomorrow will be a considerably worse day for Fianna Fáil councillors. Mainstream commentators though all suggest that they believe the polling is wrong, and FF will do better than these numbers...we'll have to wait and see on that.
The big winner at Local level seems to be the Labour party. Results akin to the above numbers should greatly strengthen the political depth of the party and give them a much better base to work from in selcting and running candidates in the next General.


European Elections

	31 May	17 May	29 May	2004
	RedC	RedC	TNSmrbi	Election
Fine Gael	34	32	29	28
Fianna Fáil	20	25	25	29
Labour	14	16	16	11
Sinn Féin	9	7	10	11
Green	4	5	2	4
Libertas	4	3	3	-
Ind/Other	15	12	15	17

The consensus seems to be that in Dublin, Mithcell (FG) and deRossa (Lab) are safe; that the final seat is McDonald (SF) v Ryan (FF) and maybe even Higgins (Soc). FF know if they hold onto Ryan's seat, they effectively come out of the Euro's unscathed representing the closest thing they can claim to a victory so they're putting significant efforts into this one.

In East, it's hard to see any result other than McGuinness (FG); Aylward (FF) and Childers (Lab). A Labour gain from FG and a very significant and visible knock against FG. They'll need good results in the Locals and the by-elections to cover this up.

In South, Crowley (FF) and Kelly (FG) are more than likely safe. The final seat seems to be Sinnott (SF) v Kelly (Lab) and maybe even Ferris (SF). Possibly the toughest call of all the Euro elections here. I think Kelly, might just make it.

In North-West, the polling suggests it's Higgins (FG), Gallagher (FF) and Harkin (Ind). But everyone is waiting to see how big a splash Ganley (Libertas) makes and nobody is quite prepared to write him off completely yet.


On the by-elections, in Dublin South everyone is calling it for George Lee (FG) - it's just a matter of how convincing the win will be.
In Dublin Central, by contrast, almost nobody is prepared to call it. Donoghue (FG), Bacik (Lab), O'Sullivan (Gregoryite Ind) and Burke (SF) are all contenders, indeed the notion of Ahern (FF) someohow coming out on top has been mooted by some people as not imposible either. My thinking on this changes by the hour, but at the moment, I think it's O'Sullivan or Bacik to take it. Donoghue to do well, probably even top the poll, but unable to rein in enough transfers to pull away.


No other polling related to the elections has been released, that I'm aware of and none is expected.

At any rate, voting itself has already begun.
As usual, most of the residents of Ireland's islands are voting before the rest of us. This year though, they weren't the first to cast their ballots - the residents at the Central Mental Hospital voted last Friday and indeed hosted their own Q&A session for the main by-election candidates.


Voting in the North is also today, but counting won't begin there until Monday.

[Kevinstat]

In South, Crowley (FF) and Kelly (FG) are more than likely safe. The final seat seems to be Sinnott (SF Ind) v Kelly (Lab) and maybe even Ferris (SF). Possibly the toughest call of all the Euro elections here. I think Kelly, might just make it.

Corrected (I know Sinnott is also endorsed by Libertas)