REGION

[Flying Dog]

...

[Demrepdan]

The mid-west. It's always been the battleground for elections. The south will undoubtedly vote Republican, the North East will undoubtedly vote Democratic, the West votes Democratic the majority of the time, and the Mountain states 95% of the time vote Republican. The mid-west industrial states have always been known as the "swing states". Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri.
      Many people have discussed with me that they feel as though Illinois is leaning more heavily Democratic as of late. I still feel as though Illinois could swing either way.
    Ohio and Pennsylvania seem to swing either way as well, especially Pennsylvania.
   All of these states make up a total of 107 Electoral Votes.

[StevenNick]

I think the vast majority of midwestern states (including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.) are in good shape for Bush.  I don't see a realistic scenario where Democrats could carry any more of those states than they did in 2000.

Al Gore won Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois while running more or less as a centrist.  With the exception of Illinois and Michigan those victories were extremely slim.  Considering that Republicans have strengthened in party identification in those key "battleground" states of the Midwest and Democrats continue to veer futher and further to the left, I expect Republicans to win in every Midwestern state except for Illinois (and they might win that too).

I think the real surprise on Election Day 2004 will be Bush's performance in the West Coast states.  I think Bush will carry Oregon and probably Washington.  If he doesn't win California, I think that he will at least make it a real contest.

[TomAtPitt]

The "Rust-Belt" or Upper Midwest, made up of industrial states that have hemmoraghing jobs, has the most Swing States by far: Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri. This will be the biggest piece of electoral votes up for grab, making Gephardt the strongest possible Democratic Nominee as the most likely to appeal to voters in these states.

[Flying Dog]

I think the vast majority of midwestern states (including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.) are in good shape for Bush.  I don't see a realistic scenario where Democrats could carry any more of those states than they did in 2000.

Al Gore won Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois while running more or less as a centrist.  With the exception of Illinois and Michigan those victories were extremely slim.  Considering that Republicans have strengthened in party identification in those key "battleground" states of the Midwest and Democrats continue to veer futher and further to the left, I expect Republicans to win in every Midwestern state except for Illinois (and they might win that too).

I think the real surprise on Election Day 2004 will be Bush's performance in the West Coast states.  I think Bush will carry Oregon and probably Washington.  If he doesn't win California, I think that he will at least make it a real contest.

minnasota might go bush but i think iowa and wisconson will go dem

[jravnsbo]

The Midwest will be the battleground, which favors the GOP.  The GOP has a base int he South and MT West.  If they are fighting MOST not all of the battleground states in the Gore States with opportunities to take them away like MN, IA, WI the GOP will be in good shape.

[angus]

some things don't seem to change over the months.

[ilikeverin]

I think the vast majority of midwestern states (including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.) are in good shape for Bush.  I don't see a realistic scenario where Democrats could carry any more of those states than they did in 2000.

Al Gore won Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois while running more or less as a centrist.  With the exception of Illinois and Michigan those victories were extremely slim.  Considering that Republicans have strengthened in party identification in those key "battleground" states of the Midwest and Democrats continue to veer futher and further to the left, I expect Republicans to win in every Midwestern state except for Illinois (and they might win that too).

I think the real surprise on Election Day 2004 will be Bush's performance in the West Coast states.  I think Bush will carry Oregon and probably Washington.  If he doesn't win California, I think that he will at least make it a real contest.

minnasota might go bush but i think iowa and wisconson will go dem

Grrrr... *unsheathes fangs*

[Lunar]

minnasota might go bush but i think iowa and wisconson will go dem

Isn't MN more Democratic than IA and WI?  Seems like Wisconsin would fall first, then Iowa, then Minnesota.  Maybe with Wisconsin and Iowa reversed, not sure.

[angus]

minnasota might go bush but i think iowa and wisconson will go dem

Isn't MN more Democratic than IA and WI?  Seems like Wisconsin would fall first, then Iowa, then Minnesota.  Maybe with Wisconsin and Iowa reversed, not sure.

NYT had a recent article (I forget the author and title) which made a good case for WI, based on the economy.

[ilikeverin]

minnasota might go bush but i think iowa and wisconson will go dem

Isn't MN more Democratic than IA and WI?  Seems like Wisconsin would fall first, then Iowa, then Minnesota.  Maybe with Wisconsin and Iowa reversed, not sure.

That's what it seems to me.  I went to my Democratic caucuses (the Democratic Party called me recently, asking me to do... something (my mom picked up), and then my mom told them that I was 13 ), and there were 20+ people from my precinct in there.  We filled up a high school classroom, to be more precise.  Anyway, my city is heavily Republican, so I think of the turnout as a good sign

[opebo]

WS, IA, and MN will all go for Bush, but I ranked them in order of likelihood.