If Hillary had been the nominee

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Could she have pulled 43% of whites? White women would have been maybe 1% more favorable but she probably would have lost 5-7% of the white male vote.

[Matt Damon™]

HRC wins more in appalachia/the rustbelt

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The rust belt maybe. All the reps would have to do to hold the south is run ads of her homemaker remarks. The southern women would run away in fear of having to get real jobs.

[Daniel Z]

Missouri, W Va, and Arkansas may have gone for her (but I don't think we can assume that).
North Carolina, Indiana, NE-2, and maybe Virgina would have gone McCain.

[Jacobtm]

Without even thinking about the EV totals, this was the map I came up with for Clinton v. McCain

269-269

Obama won so many states in large part because his campaign was so phenomenal at registering new voters and had such a great GOTV operation. Without that, and without Obama's inspirational qualities, Clinton wouldn't have made any of the narrow wins Obama did, and polls always showed her doing pretty bad in Colorado. But maybe CO would've flipped as well as Florida.

She might have held onto more racist Democrats, but that wouldn't be enough to win her any extra states...

[Mr.Phips]

Missouri, W Va, and Arkansas may have gone for her (but I don't think we can assume that).
North Carolina, Indiana, NE-2, and maybe Virgina would have gone McCain.

Clinton would have also had trouble in Colorado and Iowa. 

[Daniel Z]

Missouri, W Va, and Arkansas may have gone for her (but I don't think we can assume that).
North Carolina, Indiana, NE-2, and maybe Virgina would have gone McCain.

Clinton would have also had trouble in Colorado and Iowa. 

I forgot about Colorado.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

IA actually polled strongly for Clinton vs. Mccain until Obama's victory there, when her appeal wore off.

[justfollowingtheelections]

She would have won Arkansas, but she wouldn't have generated the excitement Obama generated, which is what allowed him to win states such as NC, Virginia, Indiana or Nevada.
I think she would have won all the Kerry states +Arkansas and New Mexico and maybe Colorado or Iowa.  She would still win the elections, but it would have been a lot closer.

[True Democrat]

Assuming she wins the nomination without controversy, then something like this:

Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, and New Hampshire are close.

[Beet]

Image Link

Virginia, Kentucky, Colorado, Minnesota and Tennessee are close.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Huckabee probably would have won AR & WV if he had been running against her though.

[Lief 🗽]

This is assuming she wins the nomination in January or early February; in other words, there's no controversy. If she's perceived to have "stolen" the nomination, the following occurs:

[tmthforu94]

McCain would win by a landslide in rural area's. I think this election would be slightly better for McCain.

McCain/Romney (McCain mainly picked Palin for women vote, and with Clinton there, it's a lost cause)
Clinton/Bayh

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Probably something like this...

Hillary Clinton (D): 338 EV
John McCain (R): 200 EV

Assuming Senator Clinton wins the 2008 Democratic Nomination without controversy in Denver then I predict that she would defeat Senator McCain to become 44th President of the United States, although her margin of victory over McCain is smaller than Obama's in RL.

[Eraserhead]

McCain would win by a landslide in rural area's. I think this election would be slightly better for McCain.

McCain/Romney (McCain mainly picked Palin for women vote, and with Clinton there, it's a lost cause)
Clinton/Bayh

Dude, your maps are crazy!

[Matt Damon™]

tmthforu94 is insane

[pragmatic liberal]

There are lots of variables; how does she win the nomination? Is it a quick Clinton victory, a prolonged Clinton-Obama fight but one in which Clinton, not Obama retains the upper hand? Is it a messy affair where she wins the nomination via "superdelegate" coup? Is Obama her running mate or is somebody else?

Also, McCain would not have picked Palin. McCain likely does slightly better. Does he pick a black running mate to appeal to disillusioned black voters? Unlikely, especially since there aren't that many prominent black Republicans, but maybe he picks someone like former Rep. JC Watts or former Deputy AG Larry Thompson.

She likely would still have won the election, given the political and economic climate, but the depth of her victory would have depended on those factors.

Assuming a "neutral" primary outcome, I think the highest probability map is something like this: Clinton wins a 5-6 point victory against McCain and although her margins in individual states may differ, she largely wins most of the same states Obama does, with a few exceptions:

Clinton: 360
McCain: 178

Clinton's victories in Colorado, Virginia, and the Upper Midwest are much narrower, but she carries New Mexico and Nevada by similar margins, and does better in Ohio and Florida.

If her victory is narrower, say, 2-4 points, then the map looks something like this:

Clinton: 327
McCain: 211

[bhouston79]

There are lots of variables; how does she win the nomination? Is it a quick Clinton victory, a prolonged Clinton-Obama fight but one in which Clinton, not Obama retains the upper hand? Is it a messy affair where she wins the nomination via "superdelegate" coup? Is Obama her running mate or is somebody else?

Also, McCain would not have picked Palin. McCain likely does slightly better. Does he pick a black running mate to appeal to disillusioned black voters? Unlikely, especially since there aren't that many prominent black Republicans, but maybe he picks someone like former Rep. JC Watts or former Deputy AG Larry Thompson.

She likely would still have won the election, given the political and economic climate, but the depth of her victory would have depended on those factors.

Assuming a "neutral" primary outcome, I think the highest probability map is something like this: Clinton wins a 5-6 point victory against McCain and although her margins in individual states may differ, she largely wins most of the same states Obama does, with a few exceptions:

Clinton: 360
McCain: 178

Clinton's victories in Colorado, Virginia, and the Upper Midwest are much narrower, but she carries New Mexico and Nevada by similar margins, and does better in Ohio and Florida.

If her victory is narrower, say, 2-4 points, then the map looks something like this:

Clinton: 327
McCain: 211

I think your right on the money with your first map. 

[CultureKing]

Probably something like this...

Hillary Clinton (D): 338 EV
John McCain (R): 200 EV

Assuming Senator Clinton wins the 2008 Democratic Nomination without controversy in Denver then I predict that she would defeat Senator McCain to become 44th President of the United States, although her margin of victory over McCain is smaller than Obama's in RL.

This map looks right to me. The democrat would win after the economic collapse whether it is Obama or Clinton. I might switch Iowa though.

[Lenny]

If Hillary Rodham Clinton had won the nomination, although historic in its own right,  would have faced many problems heading into the general election. She would of headed into the general election against Senator John McCain after a long, and bitter, primary season in which she was mostly the bitter one. She also would have many negatives on her back from the White House years.

However, she would of slammed into the General Election with alot of energy and positives. Clinton would of been the first woman to be a nominee, in which would generate alot of voters who wanted a woman in the White House. She would also have brought alot of first-hand knowledge from her past years in the senate, and from the White House itself (yes, I think her years in the White House counts- for she was the first First Lady to carry out duties such as Health Care reform).

I think, though, the race would have been tight right up until the end. I think McCain would trouce Clinton in the south-  I think McCain would of taken TX, LA, OK, TN, AR ect...but I think Clinton would stand her own in the east, such as NY, and in the west, such as California. I think the biggest toss up state would have been Florida (Florida is always the big test, isn't it haha). I think though that Clinton would have won that state by a very slim margin.


Overall, I think Clinton would of become President-elect Hillary Rodham Clinton on November 4th, 2008- not a landslide like President Obama did, but a big enough win to break that glass ceiling.

[Kaine for Senate '18]