Lynch is out

[Lunar]

http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Gov.+Lynch+won't+challenge+Sen.+Gregg&articleId=b601ddfa-4f4d-4509-a92c-754600240184

CONCORD – Gov. John Lynch said today he will not be a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010.

Lynch, a Democrat, acknowledged speculation in political circles that he might challenge Republican U.S. Sen. Judd Gregg. He said he plans to focus on budget issues here in New Hampshire.

“I can tell you that although I don’t know what I’ll be doing in 2010, I’m not going to run for the United States Senate. So, that shouldn’t be a distraction as I continue to work on the budget.”

Lynch made the statement before taking questions from reporters at a brief press conference today.

He has just begun his third two-year term as governor, on the strength of a landslide victory at the polls. He and his staff are struggling to close both a $90 million budget deficit this year, and a revenue gap of as much as $500 million over the next two years.

Lynch declined to say whether he will seek a fourth term as governor, referring again to his focus on budget issues and the state economy.

Gregg announced in November that he plans to run for election to a fourth term in the Senate. He was first elected in 1993.

U.S. Reps. Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter, both Democrats, have been mentioned as possible challengers against Gregg.

[Holmes]

I wonder if Menendez was sh**tting us...

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I already expected this. If Lynch refused to run against John Sununu (the much weaker senator), then why would he run against Judd Gregg, who is much stronger?

Obviously, this is a blow to the Democrats' chances here. What about the representatives, have they made any announcements about the race?

[Lief 🗽]

Nooooooooo.

Though, the way he phrases it leaves some room for him to backpedal later, once the budget has been balanced/passed/whatever.

“I can tell you that although I don’t know what I’ll be doing in 2010, I’m not going to run for the United States Senate. So, that shouldn’t be a distraction as I continue to work on the budget.”

[Keystone Phil]

I greeted this news with several very loud yells of "Yes!" in my basement.

[Holmes]

I greeted this news with several very loud yells of "Yes!" in my basement.

Be afraid.

[DownWithTheLeft]

This seat is pretty much Safe Republican now.  I'm still confused as to whether Schumer or Menendez is in charge, but if its Menendez Republicans may hit 60 seats in a few cycles

[TheresNoMoney]

This seat is pretty much Safe Republican now.

Hahahahaha.

Anyway, no one here in NH has ever expected Lynch to run for Senate. I don't think he has any interest in Washington politics, he likes living in New Hampshire with his family.

Hodes would be a much more effective Senator anyway.

[Ronnie]

OH YEAH BABY!

[DownWithTheLeft]

This seat is pretty much Safe Republican now.

Hahahahaha.

Anyway, no one here in NH has ever expected Lynch to run for Senate. I don't think he has any interest in Washington politics, he likes living in New Hampshire with his family.

Hodes would be a much more effective Senator anyway.

Effective senator and electability and very, very different.  Judd Gregg was not going to lose this race to anyone unless Gov. Lynch jumped in

[Dan the Roman]

Rumors state that Menendez is trying to convince Yogurt Magnate Gary Hirschberg to run, who was the DSSC's first choice in 2008 after Shaheen. He would keep both house members where they are, can self-fund as well as fund raise, and has a good political profile within the state. That said, if Gregg is running again he is a decided underdog and will probably end up like Michael Coles in Georgia in 1998.

That said the people here acting like Gregg is going to win in a blowout are delusional. A viable Democrat like Hirschberg will get to 45-46%. Its getting above that which will be hard.

[Brittain33]

This seat is pretty much Safe Republican now.

Hahahahaha.

Anyway, no one here in NH has ever expected Lynch to run for Senate. I don't think he has any interest in Washington politics, he likes living in New Hampshire with his family.

Hodes would be a much more effective Senator anyway.

Effective senator and electability and very, very different.  Judd Gregg was not going to lose this race to anyone unless Gov. Lynch jumped in

Gregg's approval rating and recent polls indicate he is vulnerable. He's only got a few more points of strength than Sununu had. I didn't expect it until the polls showed it.

[TheresNoMoney]

Rumors state that Menendez is trying to convince Yogurt Magnate Gary Hirschberg to run, who was the DSSC's first choice in 2008 after Shaheen.

He is going to run for statewide office sometime in the next four years, either for Senator or Governor. He is fairly well-known and extremely intelligent. I don't know how good of a candidate he'd be, though.

Wouldn't be surprised at all if he ran, though.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Smart move by Lynch; Gregg will be pretty safe in November, and why give up the Governor's Mansion to lose the Senate race?

[TheresNoMoney]

Gregg will be pretty safe in November

Yikes, you still haven't learned. Democrats have won everything in NH the past two elections, no Republican is safe here and definitely not Gregg.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Smart move by Lynch; Gregg will be pretty safe in November, and why give up the Governor's Mansion to lose the Senate race?

[Ronnie]

Gregg will be pretty safe in November

Yikes, you still haven't learned. Democrats have won everything in NH the past two elections, no Republican is safe here and definitely not Gregg.

Yeah, a state that went 3 points more Democratic than the national average is such a Democratic state.

New Hampshire is not like rest of New England, as much as you would want it to be.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Gregg will be pretty safe in November

Yikes, you still haven't learned. Democrats have won everything in NH the past two elections, no Republican is safe here and definitely not Gregg.

2006 and 2008 were great years for Democrats; 2010 will not be so great, Gregg is a three term incumbent and former Governor, and now the only real challenger has dropped out.  Gregg is safe.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I would listen to the New Hampshire guy when it comes to New Hampshire politics.  It only makes sense that he would know more than the rest of us.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Gregg will be pretty safe in November

Yikes, you still haven't learned. Democrats have won everything in NH the past two elections, no Republican is safe here and definitely not Gregg.

2006 and 2008 were great years for Democrats; 2010 will not be so great, Gregg is a three term incumbent and former Governor, and now the only real challenger has dropped out.  Gregg is safe.

[Holmes]

Gregg will be pretty safe in November

Yikes, you still haven't learned. Democrats have won everything in NH the past two elections, no Republican is safe here and definitely not Gregg.

Yeah, a state that went 3 points more Democratic than the national average is such a Democratic state.

New Hampshire is not like rest of New England, as much as you would want it to be.

Did you look for some actual info to back up your sarcasm?

Code:

Presidential

County     2000/Gore     2004/Kerry     2008/Obama     % Dem Gain 
Belknap       40.0%            43.6%              50.2%             +10.2% 
Carroll         41.3%            47.2%              50.7%              +9.4% 
Cheshire      52.0%            59.1%              63.4%              +11.4% 
Coos           45.0%            50.7%              58.7%              +13.7% 
Grafton        47.3%            55.7%              63.4%              +16.1% 
Sullivan       44.1%            52.4%              58.7%              +14.6%

New Hampshire House of Representatives -
Republicans: 159
Democrats: 232 (73 majority)
Independent: 1

State Senate -
Republicans: 10
Democrats: 14

Which is tight I'll admit, but Democrats were a minority before 2006, I think?


Democgraphic changes to New Hampshire since 2000 (UNH study)

First time in history, Democrats outnumber Republicans in New Hampshire AFTER the election.

[agcatter]

One of the few bits of good news for the GOP.  I wouldn't call Gregg safe, but he's pretty close to it.  He's solid.  Lynch's decision not to run is one of the few recruiting failures for senate Democrats over the last four years.   You win some - Jeb in Florida, and you lose some - Lynch in NH.

[Brittain33]

New Hampshire is not like rest of New England, as much as you would want it to be.

If New Hampshire were like the rest of New England, the seat wouldn't be competitive for the R's in the first place.

Gregg's approval ratings and ballot tests are low. He's not an institution and hasn't had to run a competitive race since his first one, in 1992, in which he underperformed. The state has swung bigtime to the Democrats. You can't spin those facts. Gregg is certainly not a dead man walking, but unless 2010 is a good year for Republicans, he's going to have a battle.

[Brittain33]

No offense, but what do you think this contributes to this thread?

Gregg will be pretty safe in November

Yikes, you still haven't learned. Democrats have won everything in NH the past two elections, no Republican is safe here and definitely not Gregg.

2006 and 2008 were great years for Democrats; 2010 will not be so great, Gregg is a three term incumbent and former Governor, and now the only real challenger has dropped out.  Gregg is safe.

[Brittain33]

One of the few bits of good news for the GOP.  I wouldn't call Gregg safe, but he's pretty close to it.  He's solid. 

LOL.

It seems that the wishful thinking (on either side) is going to persist until we see either Hodes, Shea-Porter, or a state senator declare and the polling start in earnest. Until then, people need something to believe in.