1940 election with a Europe still at peace

[rob in cal]

    Imagine if Hitler had listened to Italian foreign minister Ciano's advice at Salzburg in mid-August of 1939 and backed off his invasion plans of Poland, and Europe was still at peace, however tentative, in 1940.  I don't think FDR would run again, without the excuse of a world at war.   Question then is who are the respective nominees of the parties and who wins.  I don't think Wilkie even runs without the unusual circumstances that really occured, and I'm wondering if Garner gets the democrat nod.  The GOP was on the upswing as the 1938 elections clearly showed, and I wonder who would have won.

[rob in cal]

Garner Dewey or maybe Garner vs. Taft, but I'm wondering if a more isolationist candidate like Taft would do better in a time of peace or not.

[HappyWarrior]

Probably Garner vs. Vandenburg.  I really can't see the Repulicans being dumb enough to nominate a Manhatten District Attorney as a national nominee.

[pragmatic liberal]

I tend to doubt Garner would have been the nominee. Post-FDR, liberals were clearly the dominant power in the Democratic Party and no VP had been nominated for president since Van Buren.

The Democratic nominee would probably have been either (1) James Farley or (2) Cordell Hull.

Farley was FDR's Postmaster General as well as the DNC Chairman during Roosevelt's presidency. He was a close adviser and confidante of FDR's and was a major architect both of the New Deal and the New Deal coalition. Moreover, by 1940, he controlled the party machinery. At one point, he was believed to be Roosevelt's favored successor. His Catholicism may have hurt him, however, especially just 12 years after Al Smith's landslide loss.

Cordell Hull was Roosevelt's SoS and FDR had encouraged Hull to run for president in 1940 before he decided to "accept" a third nomination.

The Republicans would probably have nominated Dewey or Vandenberg.

I have no idea who would have won this race in a drastically different political climate. It's possible that the '37-'38 recession plus the "time-for-a-change" factor would have favored the Republican. It's possible that the New Deal reforms would still have commanded enough residual loyalty to preserve Democratic control, albeit by a narrower margin.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Imagine if Hitler had listened to Italian foreign minister Ciano's advice at Salzburg in mid-August of 1939 and backed off his invasion plans of Poland.

Adolf Hitler listening to Ciano's advice regarding Poland? You're hilarious!

Anyway, I believe if there was no war ravaging the European continent at the time of the 1940 Presidential Election that the Republicans would win back the White House, with either Senator Arthur Vandenberg of Michigan or Senator Robert A. Taft of Ohio at the top of the Republican ticket, most likely the former than the latter. As for the Democrats, I would expect Postmaster General James A. Farley, with the backing of President Roosevelt to secure the nomination. Although Vice President Garner would have tried, his campaign would have been destroyed due to the "New Deal" coalitions control of the party machinery.