Hilarious predictions

[tmthforu94]

Now here's a really crazy prediction from October 23, 2008:

http://interestedamerican.blogspot.com/2008/10/electoral-college-mccain-278-obama-260.html

It was off by 'only' 114 electoral votes.

Give it some credit, though; it got Missouri and Montana right. Of course it thought that McCain/Palin would eke out narrow victories in Nevada and New Hampshire -- wrong! Whether one thinks that Obama won Virginia decisively or barely is a matter of taste.

This site had even crazier predictions earlier -- like  such states as Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania going for McCain, all of which Obama won by double-digit margins. This site must have assumed that McCain/Palin momentum in early September was going to continue.

The site recognized that Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana would be close.

Criteria:

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...

Apparently this fellow couldn't believe that the Democrats could make real gains between 2004 and 2008, and failed to account for the fast-growing Latino vote.

Garbage in... garbage out.

 

That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

[tmthforu94]

That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

ACORN didn't "get in the way" of what?  Registering useless Daffy Duck registrations that would require a ridiculously orchestrated effort to cast a single vote with?

Don't underestimate me just because I am young. Our country needs to look towards it's youth. Your era had their chance, and they blew it. Now it's our turn. We have to fix the problems your generation made as well as make the must needed improvements.

Do realize who you're talking to.

[tmthforu94]

That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

ACORN didn't "get in the way" of what?  Registering useless Daffy Duck registrations that would require a ridiculously orchestrated effort to cast a single vote with?

Sending homeless people to the streets of Pittsburgh, saying if they went out and got blacks registered, they would give them a free meal.
That is just sick.

[tmthforu94]

That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

ACORN didn't "get in the way" of what?  Registering useless Daffy Duck registrations that would require a ridiculously orchestrated effort to cast a single vote with?

Don't underestimate me just because I am young. Our country needs to look towards it's youth. Your era had their chance, and they blew it. Now it's our turn. We have to fix the problems your generation made as well as make the must needed improvements.

Do realize who you're talking to.

First of all, I'm only 4 years older than you are.

And my comment had nothing to do with your age, but rather the absurdity of your claim.

Well, then please explain your comment, "Do realize who you're talking to?" It is not "Crazy" to think that Acorn rigs elections. They register dead people. Odd enough, those dead people are almost always Democrats.

[tmthforu94]

That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

ACORN didn't "get in the way" of what?  Registering useless Daffy Duck registrations that would require a ridiculously orchestrated effort to cast a single vote with?

Sending homeless people to the streets of Pittsburgh, saying if they went out and got blacks registered, they would give them a free meal.
That is just sick.

Targetting certain groups of voters likely to be friendly to your politics is something both parties do.  Do I like that they target the homeless?  No.  Do I like voting targetting?  Not especially.  But this is a stupid caveat.  And, besides, the number of people registered in such drives probably did not break 10,000.  That's a ridiculously small number of votes, relatively speaking.

Look at the Florida 2000 results. If target voting hadn't happened there, who knows? Al Gore could have been president.