Hilarious predictions

[pbrower2a]

Now here's a really crazy prediction from October 23, 2008:

http://interestedamerican.blogspot.com/2008/10/electoral-college-mccain-278-obama-260.html

It was off by 'only' 114 electoral votes.

Give it some credit, though; it got Missouri and Montana right. Of course it thought that McCain/Palin would eke out narrow victories in Nevada and New Hampshire -- wrong! Whether one thinks that Obama won Virginia decisively or barely is a matter of taste.

This site had even crazier predictions earlier -- like  such states as Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania going for McCain, all of which Obama won by double-digit margins. This site must have assumed that McCain/Palin momentum in early September was going to continue.

The site recognized that Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana would be close.

Criteria:

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...

Apparently this fellow couldn't believe that the Democrats could make real gains between 2004 and 2008, and failed to account for the fast-growing Latino vote.

Garbage in... garbage out.

 

[pbrower2a]

Now here's a really crazy prediction from October 23, 2008:

Criteria:

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...

Apparently this fellow couldn't believe that the Democrats could make real gains between 2004 and 2008, and failed to account for the fast-growing Latino vote.

Garbage in... garbage out.

He just grossly underestimated the amount of voter fraud, that's all.

Most electoral fraud is the culpability of administrators of elections -- ballot-box stuffing, tampering with voting machines and tabulations, destruction of ballot applications, making voting unusually difficult for those who likely vote "wrong", intimidation of voters...