Where would we be today if Trump never ran for prez?

[Sir Mohamed]

Where do you think we would be today if Donald Trump never entered the 2016 presidential campaign and stayed out? Ted Cruz or HRC in their 2nd terms as POTUS now? Someone else? It's pretty much guaranteed though that Biden would be nothing more but a former VP that left office 6+ years ago.

[Samof94]

Where do you think we would be today if Donald Trump never entered the 2016 presidential campaign and stayed out? Ted Cruz or HRC in their 2nd terms as POTUS now? Someone else? It's pretty much guaranteed though that Biden would be nothing more but a former VP that left office 6+ years ago.

Someone else handling Covid would likely lead them to reelection. Hillary is not likely President in 2023(she's a one termer in any universe where she wins).

[President Johnson]

I think Hillary Clinton wins the presidency in 2016 over Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio with the 278 freiwall map. However, she remains ineffective domestically due to congressional obstruction. Following massive Republican gains in 2018, she loses reelection another Republican candidate in 2020 who comes in with 56-60 senate and 240-250 House seats and implements a right-wing agenda as well the repeal of Obamacare. Democrats need multiple favorable cycles in the senate to drag themselves out of that hole.

[darklordoftech]

We would be in the 2nd term of President Rubio.

[dw93]

If Rubio or Kasich, or even Scott Walker managed to get nominated in 2016 we'd likely be in a 2nd term of theirs (and likely a hellish 2nd term, especially if it's Walker). If Cruz or Jeb got nominated, Clinton likely would've beaten them only to lose in 2020 so we'd be in the first (possibly single) term of a Republican President.

[MABA 2020]

Marco Rubio's second term is most likely I think

[Blue3]

Cruz was doing better than Rubio, and would have been more likely to get the 2016 Trump primary voters.

Cruz vs Hillary would be interesting. Not sure how it would have gone. Cruz is highly unlikeable, and I think had even less support from the establishment than Trump.

If Hillary became President, it would be similar to 3rd term of Obama and what Biden has gotten done executively. Except it would probably lack what Biden got done legislatively (with GOO still in Congressional majorities) and she might have been less likely to leave Afghanistan. But there would probably be no war in Ukraine, which I think happened due to Putin’s hubris with what he did with Trump.

If Cruz became President, he’s more likely to have gotten a total repeal of ObamaCare than just the individual mandate. And he wouldn’t have met with Kim Jong Un. But probably no Muslim travel ban, and not as much emphasis on the Wall. Judicial appointments and tax cuts would probably be fairly similar.

As for how each would have handled COVID - honestly it’s an unknown. But I think Hillary would be better than Cruz.

[Agonized-Statism]

Rubio wins a very close race without Trump's unique ability to bring out low propensity voters thanks to a last minute save in Nevada. His big thing is getting Obamacare repealed, but the backlash helps Democrats take control of the senate in 2018 and leaves Rubio a lame duck. Without populism so discredited among what would be Trump's detractors and less insecurity over senate seats, Sherrod Brown jumps into the Democratic primaries and immediately becomes the frontrunner, and Biden declines to run. Sanders might too, but if he runs it would only help Brown by making him the token Stop Sanders candidate palatable to both moderates and progressives.

2020 is a disaster for Rubio between a botched operation in Venezuela (like OTL's Operation Gideon but bigger, more government involvement, and less plausible deniability) and COVID, where his reluctant and bare minimum support of masking and vaxxing loses both sides of public opinion. George Floyd is saved by the butterfly effect, but some other police brutality incident sparks protests on that scale: IOTL there was also Ahmaud Arbery, Breonna Taylor, Christian Cooper, and Jacob Blake, both before and after May 25. Aside from being the most extensively filmed and unusually cruel of those, Floyd's murder was amplified over the others because it was the first to happen after the lockdown started and its economic effects were taking a serious toll, particularly on the poor and minorities. Combine that with the country being more politically conscious heading into election season and police brutality protests were inevitable that summer. Brown probably pulls off one last hurrah in Ohio, but Iowa is still gone.

The inflation and supply chain issues that have made the 2020s miserable so far would also still happen, and Brown would be facing some steep headwinds when the post-Rubio GOP finally got some prospective 2024 candidates doing and saying the same things that made Trump popular in our 2016. There also wouldn't be a Storming of the Capitol to contend with. 2022 might actually be a Republican year- then again, with Rubio picking Supreme Court Justices, Roe v. Wade still gets overturned and there's a backlash. In any case, President Brown wouldn't be able to get the progressive agenda people would hope for through. Putin still invades Ukraine as a continuation of his actions in 2008 and 2014, and while Brown might benefit from a rally 'round the flag, a Trumpless GOP might be able to spin it in their favor.

2016



Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) / Senator Rob Portman (R-OH)

2020

President Marco Rubio (R-FL) / Vice President Rob Portman (R-OH)
Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) / Fmr. National Security Advisor Susan Rice (D-DC) ✓

[Del Tachi]

I think the GOP nominates either Cruz or Rubio, and Hillary Clinton wins in 2016.  Merrick Garland is confirmed to SCOTUS, so Roe is preserved.

However, 2018 is a complete bloodbath for Democrats and Clinton is impeached something like 3-times in 2019.  This Republican overreach helps plus a covid "rally around the flag" effect sees Clinton pretty comfortably reelected in 2020.  The GOP nominee is probably whoever between Cruz and Rubio wasn't nominated in 2016.

2022 is probably another bad year for Democrats, and with the Democrats' political capital being completely exhausted after almost 15 years in office she probably has like second term George W. Bush-type approvals.

[dw93]

Cruz or Rubio emerge as the nominee. If it's Cruz Hillary beats him by winning the states she won against Trump plus WI, MI, and PA. OH, IA, NE2nd, and ME 2nd are all won by  Cruz by less than 5 points. Cruz does however do better than Trump in TX and does slightly better than him in GA and AZ. After the election, Garland would be confirmed by the Senate in a lame duck session, especially if the Democrats manage to narrowly flip the Senate. RBG and Breyer also retire before the 2018 midterms, meaning Roe is still the law of the land today. The notion of "Only a true Conservative can win the Presidency. See Reagan and Dubya" falls flat on its face after Cruz loses  the election. What little Clinton gets done at home is through executive order thanks to gridlock in congress. No meeting with Kim Jung Un obviously, she's tougher on Russia, and more hawkish all around. 2018 is a bloodbath for Democrats, especially in the Senate, and the last two years of Clinton's term see multiple impeachment attempts. If COVID hits, she handles it well, and while it narrows the polls a bit, it isn't enough to keep get her a 2nd term an she looses to a Kasich or Haleyesque Republican nominee. No Russia invasion of Ukraine happens as you wouldn't have Trump appeasing Putin for years before hand and there'd be no Afghanistan withdrawal with Clinton winning in 16 and a pre 2016 conventional Republican being elected to succeed her. Supply shocks and inflation from COVID disruptions cause economic headache for a Republican like they do for Biden or if COVID is avoided a recession and weak recovery do. 2022 is a blue wave with Democrats retaking the House and Senate and the Republican incumbent becomes a lame duck who's the underdog against the Democrats to win re election.

If it's Rubio, I think he narrowly beats Clinton. He by the skin of his teeth wins the PV and wins the EV by a narrower margin than Trump, with the actual 2016 map minus MI and one of PA or WI. On a good night though, Rubio narrowly flips NV which somewhat makes up for a loss of 2 of the 3 Rust belt trio states. Domestically and in terms of court appointments, his first two years in office are similar to Trump's, though I doubt Kavanaugh would survive a vetting process and someone with less baggage replaces Kennedy. Foreign policy, being more or less a return to Bush era Neconservatism is where his term would differ from Trump's. 2018 is a blue ripple instead of a wave, meaning the GOP narrowly keeps the House and the Democrats gain less Governorships (Walker likely holds on in WI).  Rubio handles the pandemic competently enough to narrowly fend off Bernie, Warren, or Buttigieg (I don't think Biden runs if a more outwardly conventional President is the incumbent). If the Pandemic doesn't happen, Rubio wins decisively. For how his second term would go, think of the scenario I outlined where Clinton beats Cruz in 16 and loses to another Republican in 2020, only make 2022 a blue tsunami as a result of Roe being overturned under a Republican President, and one that would likely try (and possibly succeed) with federal bans/restrictions. Rubio is the lamest of ducks in 2023 and 24, possibly more so than Obama in 2015 and 16, and the Democrats win 2024 big, though I doubt they'd have a Supermajority in the Senate given the map.