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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1026570 times)
Likely Voter
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« Reply #10050 on: September 23, 2012, 02:29:36 pm »
« edited: September 23, 2012, 02:31:47 pm by 47% Voter »

This election continues to track close to the 2004 election. Obama's approval rating is now right around where Bush's was today 8 years ago and on election day. The big difference is that Kerry's personal approval ratingss were positive and Romney's are negative
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10051 on: September 23, 2012, 03:07:50 pm »

This election continues to track close to the 2004 election. Obama's approval rating is now right around where Bush's was today 8 years ago and on election day. The big difference is that Kerry's personal approval ratingss were positive and Romney's are negative

He's still a couple % lower than Bush was, but Bush starts dropping off around this time, so Obama could catch Bush 2004 before the election.  The race is also polling a bit tighter than Bush/Kerry was post-convention (Obama +4 vs. Bush +6), but the variance was a lot larger in 2004, with Kerry being up +2-3 pre-convention bump for Bush vs. Obama being +1-3 on Romney all summer long this year...
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
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« Reply #10052 on: September 23, 2012, 04:03:46 pm »
« Edited: September 23, 2012, 04:09:42 pm by Nathan »

Obama also hit 50 on the TPM tracker today, which moves more gradually and does a lot more smoothing and rounding. He's actually at exactly the same average on both right now, which does if memory serves happen quite a bit on individual days although TPM adjusts its numbers in retrospect and RCP doesn't.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #10053 on: September 23, 2012, 04:12:18 pm »
« Edited: September 23, 2012, 04:15:46 pm by 47% Voter »

This election continues to track close to the 2004 election. Obama's approval rating is now right around where Bush's was today 8 years ago and on election day. The big difference is that Kerry's personal approval ratingss were positive and Romney's are negative

He's still a couple % lower than Bush was, but Bush starts dropping off around this time, so Obama could catch Bush 2004 before the election.  The race is also polling a bit tighter than Bush/Kerry was post-convention (Obama +4 vs. Bush +6), but the variance was a lot larger in 2004, with Kerry being up +2-3 pre-convention bump for Bush vs. Obama being +1-3 on Romney all summer long this year...

Well on Sept 23 Bush was at 51 on the RCP avg, OBama is 50, and by election day  Bush was 49.5   but still won with 50.7 of the PV. No past election is exactly the same but for all the talk about Carter v Reagan, this election continues to look more like Bush v Kerry (with Obama as Bush).  That election also shows a glimmer of hope for Romney fans as Kerry was able to get a 4pt bounce out of the first debate. So even if polling remains stable Romney could close the race to a tie.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10054 on: September 23, 2012, 06:40:22 pm »

This election continues to track close to the 2004 election. Obama's approval rating is now right around where Bush's was today 8 years ago and on election day. The big difference is that Kerry's personal approval ratingss were positive and Romney's are negative

Actually, Obama's running about 2 points behind GW Bush at this point.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10055 on: September 23, 2012, 07:10:36 pm »

This election continues to track close to the 2004 election. Obama's approval rating is now right around where Bush's was today 8 years ago and on election day. The big difference is that Kerry's personal approval ratingss were positive and Romney's are negative

Actually, Obama's running about 2 points behind GW Bush at this point.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

That's very true.  It looks like the same general pattern with less variability, though.  Romney wasn't running nearly as strong as Kerry pre-incumbent convention.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #10056 on: September 23, 2012, 07:10:37 pm »

I'm going off the RCP average.

But if you want to talk Gallup, since that is the new talking point for the right, remind us what the Gallup approval rating was for the last two presidents who were voted out of office (Cater and George HW Bush) were at this point?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10057 on: September 23, 2012, 07:21:45 pm »

I'm going off the RCP average.

But if you want to talk Gallup, since that is the new talking point for the right, remind us what the Gallup approval rating was for the last two presidents who were voted out of office (Cater and George HW Bush) were at this point?

In mid-September?

Carter: 39%

G.H.W. Bush: 37%



 
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Mister Twister
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« Reply #10058 on: September 23, 2012, 07:40:29 pm »

So Obama has a 51% approval rating while Carter had a 37% approval rating? Yep, this is exactly like 1980.
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President von Cat
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« Reply #10059 on: September 23, 2012, 09:19:28 pm »

Stop deflating Republican fantasies with factual evidence.
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King
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« Reply #10060 on: September 23, 2012, 09:29:08 pm »

So Obama is running 12-14 points ahead of the last two Presidents to lose re-election while within the margin of error of the last President to win re-election?

The dude is finished.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #10061 on: September 23, 2012, 09:31:16 pm »

Romney needed a great summer (ie, horrible for everyone else) to make in-roads. The undecideds in this race are too low to wait until the last few weeks. He needed to define himself early, but he spent that time sucking up to the extreme right-wing and now he's suffering the consequences.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
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« Reply #10062 on: September 23, 2012, 09:31:30 pm »

So Obama is running 12-14 points ahead of the last two Presidents to lose re-election while within the margin of error of the last President to win re-election?

The dude is finished.

But Romney will blow this thing wide open in the debates, which he's known to be very good at!
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J. J.
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« Reply #10063 on: September 24, 2012, 09:27:09 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, u.

Head to head is tied at 47/46 Obama, but with leaners 48/48.  On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
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J. J.
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« Reply #10064 on: September 24, 2012, 12:25:28 pm »



http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 51%, u


Disapprove: 42%, -1

Head to head, Obama 48% (u), Romney 46% (u).

It looks like a lag on Gallup from the 47% remark.  Obama's approval rating was down for the last week, which probably doesn't include the results for the 47% remark.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10065 on: September 24, 2012, 02:21:57 pm »

Gallup's approval numbers don't match up well with their head-to-head numbers at all.
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Mister Twister
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« Reply #10066 on: September 24, 2012, 07:04:42 pm »

Romney needed a great summer (ie, horrible for everyone else) to make in-roads. The undecideds in this race are too low to wait until the last few weeks. He needed to define himself early, but he spent that time sucking up to the extreme right-wing and now he's suffering the consequences.

It's not all Romney's fault though. The summer of Bain really defined Romney in a negative way. People were saying the Obama was desperate to use these attacks but the truth is that it was a stroke of genius. The Obama Campaign really knows what it's doing, just like in the 2008 primaries and general election.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10067 on: September 25, 2012, 09:05:03 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +1.

Head to head is 47/46, Obama, but with leaners 47/47.  On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
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J. J.
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« Reply #10068 on: September 25, 2012, 12:16:02 pm »



http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 50%, -1


Disapprove: 43%, +1

Head to head, Obama 48% (u), Romney 45% (-1).

We've still got a lag with the 47% remark.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10069 on: September 26, 2012, 08:57:42 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, u.

Watch the strongly approve number.  That is either a bad sample or some very solid movement.  The other numbers are holding.

Head to head is tied at 46%, with leaners, 48/46 Romney.


On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #10070 on: September 26, 2012, 09:03:29 am »

lol rasmussen
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J. J.
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« Reply #10071 on: September 26, 2012, 09:26:59 am »


I'd be watch those Strongly Approve numbers and Gallup over the weekend.  Smiley
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Earthling
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« Reply #10072 on: September 26, 2012, 11:18:42 am »

If that's what makes it possible for you to sleep at night.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #10073 on: September 26, 2012, 11:27:38 am »


I'd be watch those Strongly Approve numbers and Gallup over the weekend.  Smiley

Have fun watching your flawed outlier polls.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10074 on: September 26, 2012, 02:24:33 pm »




http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 51%, +1


Disapprove: 43%, u

Head to head, Obama 50% (+2), Romney 44% (-1).

We've still got a lag with the 47% remark.
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