The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[CatoMinor]

MO & FL

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[CatoMinor]

CA & WI

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green

[CatoMinor]

NM, MO, MN, LA, AK, IL, NY, OK, OH, & CO

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[CatoMinor]

fixed

NM, MO, MN, LA, AK, IL, NY, OK, OH, & CO

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[CatoMinor]

Ras: WA: 48/50
OH & GA

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[CatoMinor]

So only having 48% approval in WA means he is in the positives still on you map?

[CatoMinor]

So only having 48% approval in WA means he is in the positives still on you map?

You're clearly forgetting the rule of adding 6 to Democratic candidate numbers.

And probably another 10 due to the age wave, then at the very least 5 because Obama's ability to utilize the Seatle-Tacoma air hub, so if anything WA should be dark green and will obviously go 70%+ dem in 2012.

[CatoMinor]

Unless Obama's opponent is Basil Marceaux-Dot-Com then Kentucky is Safe GOP, even with Marceaux-Dot-Com it would lean GOP.

[CatoMinor]

DE, NE, & NC

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[CatoMinor]

CA Rasmussen, no change.

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[CatoMinor]

You should colour DE white, it´s a 50-50 tie.

The notion that the GOP has the ability to challenge Delaware is hilarious.

Coloring white for a tie has nothing to do with Obama vs a GOPer in 2012, its simply meaning his approval/disapproval is tied at the moment.

[CatoMinor]

New Jersey, still tied.

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[CatoMinor]

You should colour DE white, it´s a 50-50 tie.

The notion that the GOP has the ability to challenge Delaware is hilarious.

Coloring white for a tie has nothing to do with Obama vs a GOPer in 2012, its simply meaning his approval/disapproval is tied at the moment.

Ohhhh.... I thought he was talking about Pbrower's 2012 prediction.

lol, just ignore Pbrower's prediction map. Its just his wet dreams for Obama's re-election, he has it as currently favoring an Obama win in Alaska lol...

[CatoMinor]

Oh god I can't wait until you see the Obama landslide on Election Night 2012. Find a GOP candidate who can campaign as charismatically and is as likable as Barack Obama and get back to me.

I'm not saying Obama won't get re-elected, but don't expect some epic 49 state sweep like Reagan in 1984. It is pointless to make predictions until we see
1) who the GOP nominee is and to a lessor extent the minor parties nominees;
2) The Un-employment numbers going into fall 2012; and
3) The situation in Afghanistan by 2012.

That being said, I do feel pretty confident with the following prediction: Indiana will not vote Obama twice and the GOP will Keep Kentucky & Alaska. despite Pbrowers maps insisting those two states will be in play lol.

[CatoMinor]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Iraq he can blame entirely on Bush but Iraq is winding down anyways so won't matter as much, but pinning any downturns in Afghanistan on Bush will comeback to haunt him and give the GOP the ammo of saying "See, he blames everything on Bush!" wether or not they are justified in doing so, the Democrats have had control of congress for about 4 years the last 2 years of which they had huge majorities not seen for a long time, and the white house for approaching 2 years. It will be harder and harder to continue passing the blame on to the predecessor. It may have worked in 2008, but by 2012 I suspect voters will see the Dem's blaming Bush as a turn off.

[CatoMinor]

AZ, TX, ME, & KY

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[CatoMinor]

Rasmussen MO: 40/58

[CatoMinor]

MO, IL, & WV

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[CatoMinor]

TX & SD

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[CatoMinor]

Pbrower, You'll use a Geoprgia poll that is very unusualy high, but not one that is on par with the region, and close to what older polls had shown it at?

[CatoMinor]

Pbrower, You'll use a Geoprgia poll that is very unusualy high, but not one that is on par with the region, and close to what older polls had shown it at?

SurveyUSA is way out of line with Rasmussen.

But that last poll kinda seemed way out of line with how the state had been trending in the polls and you still used it.

[CatoMinor]

oh, my bad.

[CatoMinor]

CA, GA, FL, PA, NV, CO & OH

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[CatoMinor]

17 going on 18. I'm a bit immature, I know, but the hate on pbrower2 is a bit immature as well. I'm probably biased on this, but I fail to see how pbrower2 is a hack, seeing as how your only argument for him being one (that I can see) is that he is not a Republican.

No, the argument is how he seems to think negative approval ratings across the country translate into him winning big in 2012. Then there is his air hub thing, and that "no matter how crappy a job, the incumbent will always see 6%+ magically appear". Then there is his tendency to use a poll that clearly shows an unusually high approval, but firmly reject using a poll that shows an unusually low approval, calling it out as a bad poll.

[CatoMinor]

Pa, FL, VT, OH, NH, DE, MA, WI, IN, MD, & NY

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green