The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Penelope]

Pbrower2a, I'm not sure that anything has changed, poll wise.  If Obama has troughed to the maximum point, he's troughed higher than any president, except GW Bush (and yes, there were other factors in that case).  GW Bush was re-elected.

Eisenhower, Nixon, and Kennedy, if we're talking about first term troughs (which is all we can be talking about).

I should have said since Watergate, but we obviously have no idea what JFK's numbers would have been in 1964. 

Ah, then I agree with you.

Both Eisenhower and Nixon were off their lows, though. 

Eisenhower, yes. Nixon? Not exactly.

From the Gallup Graph, it appears that Nixon was right around his trough. He had a pretty long lukewarm period at 48-50% in late 1971, with a small bump in Oct. 1971. But he was most certainly not "off his low".

Well, he was.  Nixon's first term low was both shallow and late.  It was late June 1971, and 48%.  That was his lowest first term number.  He didn't improve greatly for the remainder of 1971, but he was always off that.

Yes, but "off his lows" would seem to imply that he's way above them. It's very clear that the trough was in mid-late 1971 for Nixon.

[Penelope]

Will Obama top 50% ever again in Gallup? I know 15months is a long time in politics, but barring some sort of miracle, I think he's done for now.

Again, I maintain he's very lucky to have not touched the upper 30s yet. Imagine if this was Bush....

Yes, he will.

[Penelope]

Gallup, meh:

Favorable: 41% +1

Unfavorable:  51% -1

No troughing yet.

Huh?

Obama has not toughed yet - the Bradley effect will soon come into play.

[Penelope]

J.J.: PROPHET OF GALLUP

[Penelope]

The President's approval is at 39%, and it was a -3% jump downward. It'll go back up soon. Well, back from the 30s, probably.

[Penelope]

The President's approval is at 39%, and it was a -3% jump downward. It'll go back up soon. Well, back from the 30s, probably.

Maybe, but I'll looking for the low point on Gallup.  It's just a measure of where the basement is.

Yes, but you must stop looking for the "low point". Try to analyze the results, instead of looking for what you want to see.

J.J.: PROPHET OF GALLUP

Well, I was the prophet there. 

Let's see how I do with gold and the market, not to mention the realignment.

Please get over yourself.

[Penelope]

I corrected you post, Lief, though I doubt that you'll understand immediately.  The Vorlon will.

Yes, I imagine two dumbs who like to make grand and incorrect pronouncements will understand each other well.

The second prophecy is fulfilled.  Anybody want to me to call them when I get Powerball numbers?

Oh, and Lief, 39% is lower than 40%.

Indeed, 39% is one number less than 40%.

[Penelope]

I wish we had someone like Hillary2012, except going around posting junk polls with Obama having 60%+ approval.






pbrower joke coming in 3, 2, 1

[Penelope]

Gallup @ 40% Approval, 52% Disapproval.

[Penelope]

Gallup @ 40% Approval, 52% Disapproval.

Is that the update or yesterday's numbers?

Aha!

Not much change either way, though.

[Penelope]

I'll predict that his approvals will be back in the high forties after he releases his jobs program, and it'll probably rise a bit more around the 10th Anniversary of 9/11.

[Penelope]

Yes, that makes perfect sense. Last month his approvals were in the 30s, and now they are in the 40s.

He just keeps going lower and lower!

[Penelope]

For Perry to win New York or California, the economy would have to be in complete freefall. With Romney, maybe he could pull it out since people do see him as some economic master or whatever. Even with Romney we would have to see unemployment pushing close to 10% though. If unemployment is still at 9.1-9.3%, we are looking at a close Obama loss at best for the Republicans. The battleground would still be the Midwest, four corners states and the Mid-Atlantic.

You'll have to define freefall.

I'm saying, a double dip recession, with greater than 9% employment, and Rubio on the ticket, you are looking a a map like the one I posted.

The midwest is already a battleground.

For Perry to come close in New York or California, we would have to have around 15% unemployment nationwide, and both of those states would have to have 1/4 unemployment statewide. It would also help if the nation's economic outlook looked around the same as Greece's.

For Perry to win those states, Barack Obama would have to announce a White House address just before election night, have a good portion of the nation watching, and devour a litter of kittens on live television.

(assuming no third party runs)

[Penelope]

PPP

Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago

Do you have a link?

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

Electability argument on its head at least in one state: Perry fav with NC independents is 44/34, Romney's is 35/50

Romney favorability with North Carolina Republicans: 39/40. His negatives with party base really seem to be on the rise.



Perry should be a better candidate in North Carolina.

Stick that dumbass Perry in a roadside gas station and hope he never becomes president. Problem solved.

Fixed.

[Penelope]

Do you support or oppose requiring girls entering the 6th grade to be vaccinated against the human papilloma virus, also known as HPV?

22% Support (27% D, 17% R, 21% I)
57% Oppose (51% D, 64% R, 56% I)

I am astonished the opposition figure is so high, even among Democrats and Independents.

I think if you changed the question a little you would see the figures flip.

Indeed. The implication of the question is mandatory, no opt-outs. Even I would disapprove.

[Penelope]

Do you support a vaccination program to aid in a reduction of the risk of cervical cancer?

[Penelope]

Gallup 42 50, so Obamama has not been consistently below 40%.

Gallup

Approve: 43 (+1)

Disapprove: 49 (-1)