The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

^^lol

Anyway, your election rules already say that Romney has lost, so I don't know why we even need this thread anymore.

The corollary to J. J.'s First Rule is:  Never trust just one poll.  Trust several and remember that the electorate changes its mind quickly.

I'm looking at trending.

Oh so the rule doesn't count if the candidate you support says he doesn't look at/trust the polls. Gotcha.

Well, by using the standard you used yesterday, Romney just won. 

J. J., your first rule of elections is that if a candidate and his campaign talk about not paying attention to the polls, then that candidate will lose.  The Romney campaign released a press release saying not to worry about the latest polls--not one poll, not two specific polls, all of the polls.  It then went on detail while polls are not accurate or useful or mean that an election is over.

If Obama had released as statement saying this, what would your response be?

Not just the campaign, Mitt Romney himself:

Related:

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Hey J. J.!

Well, first of all, Romney is looking at the polls.  Secondly, he is noting that they do change over time.  It doesn't violate the rule, at all.  Sorry if you can't understand that. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, u.

That is close and unmoving.

[J. J.]

^^lol

Anyway, your election rules already say that Romney has lost, so I don't know why we even need this thread anymore.

The corollary to J. J.'s First Rule is:  Never trust just one poll.  Trust several and remember that the electorate changes its mind quickly.

I'm looking at trending.

Oh so the rule doesn't count if the candidate you support says he doesn't look at/trust the polls. Gotcha.

Well, by using the standard you used yesterday, Romney just won.  

J. J., your first rule of elections is that if a candidate and his campaign talk about not paying attention to the polls, then that candidate will lose.  The Romney campaign released a press release saying not to worry about the latest polls--not one poll, not two specific polls, all of the polls.  It then went on detail while polls are not accurate or useful or mean that an election is over.

If Obama had released as statement saying this, what would your response be?

Not just the campaign, Mitt Romney himself:

Related:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hey J. J.!

Well, first of all, Romney is looking at the polls.  Secondly, he is noting that they do change over time.  It doesn't violate the rule, at all.  Sorry if you can't understand that.  

He's not looking at the polls in Virginia and Ohio -- and whoever wins Virginia and Ohio wins the election.

Your statement is wrong on both levels.  First the polling in OH and VA is close; both are on my tossup list.  Second, I did come up with a few scenarios where Obama wins both, but loses the election.

Here is one:

It is not pretty, but it produces 270 EV's.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 49%, -1


Disapprove: 45%, +1

[J. J.]

Your statement is wrong on both levels.  First the polling in OH and VA is close; both are on my tossup list.  Second, I did come up with a few scenarios where Obama wins both, but loses the election.

Here is one:

It is not pretty, but it produces 270 EV's.

That's not just not a likely map, it's not a possible map.

Yeah, there's no way with the current polling that if Obama gets Ohio and Virginia that he doesn't also get at least one of the other swing states.

Today, Obama's lead increased in VA, according to the WP.  Romney pulled into the lead in CO, according to Rasmussen.

I could very easily see something along those lines happening.  Note that I didn't put MI in the Romney column, but that remains a possibility.  His numbers have improved, even within the same poll, there.

[J. J.]

Which poll are you talking about, specifically?

PPP.  In July, Obama had a 14 point lead; two weeks ago, it was down to 7.  Some of the lesser ones, newspapers, local pollsters, are putting it closer. Only EPIC has shown an increase off of a 3 point lead.

[J. J.]

Which poll are you talking about, specifically?

PPP.  In July, Obama had a 14 point lead; two weeks ago, it was down to 7.  Some of the lesser ones, newspapers, local pollsters, are putting it closer. Only EPIC has shown an increase off of a 3 point lead.

A 7-point lead doesn't make Michigan a "possibility" for Romney. And considering Michigan-only-pollsters' ludicrous bias, you can't count FMW's latest nonsense.

As I indicated, I did not include it. 

However, a drop of 7 points in 8 weeks on a slightly Democratic poll is significant.  Some of the lesser ones are showing it closer.  One of the superpacs just made an $800 K ad buy in MI.  On top of that, there does appear to be trending toward Romney in the region, with OH static, and Obama's only strong state being IL.  That isn't enough to start calling it a tossup or blue, but it certainly is a light shade of red.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  42%, -1.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, -1


Disapprove: 46%, +1

[J. J.]

The new Pew poll looks likely to push Obama over the 50% approval barrier at RCP.

It hasn't because they're hacks...

Or maybe it's because Pew is at best a mediocre pollster.

That doesn't change the fact that RCP is a hack website...

RCP is fine, but a number of these polls are garbage.

[J. J.]

The new Pew poll looks likely to push Obama over the 50% approval barrier at RCP.

It hasn't because they're hacks...

Or maybe it's because Pew is at best a mediocre pollster.

That doesn't change the fact that RCP is a hack website...

RCP is fine, but a number of these polls are garbage.

I agree that a number of these polls are garbage including all Rassy, Gallup and ARG trolljobs, but RCP is a right-wing hack website and you should look at their article headlines to get a better idea of where they stand...

According to Mondale84 (who still wants a recount), all polls are wrong.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 51%, +2.

Disapprove 48%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, -2.


It could be tied to Romney's 47% comment.  Tracking shows 47%/45% Obama in the horse race poll.

[J. J.]

The new Pew poll looks likely to push Obama over the 50% approval barrier at RCP.

It hasn't because they're hacks...

Or maybe it's because Pew is at best a mediocre pollster.

That doesn't change the fact that RCP is a hack website...

RCP is fine, but a number of these polls are garbage.

I agree that a number of these polls are garbage including all Rassy, Gallup and ARG trolljobs, but RCP is a right-wing hack website and you should look at their article headlines to get a better idea of where they stand...

According to Mondale84 (who still wants a recount), all polls are wrong.

...anyone who has a modicum of respect for democracy "still wants a recount"...

No, those people who still want a recount of 1984 have no respect for democracy.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 46%, -2


Disapprove: 48%, +2

I would be tempted to ask Leif if he was referring Obama, but I won't.

Gallup has a 6 day cycle, so a lot of that is before the 47% comment.  It might either a reaction to the Islamic world situation or a response to the unemployment numbers.

[J. J.]

The new Pew poll looks likely to push Obama over the 50% approval barrier at RCP.

It hasn't because they're hacks...

Or maybe it's because Pew is at best a mediocre pollster.

That doesn't change the fact that RCP is a hack website...

RCP is fine, but a number of these polls are garbage.

I agree that a number of these polls are garbage including all Rassy, Gallup and ARG trolljobs, but RCP is a right-wing hack website and you should look at their article headlines to get a better idea of where they stand...

According to Mondale84 (who still wants a recount), all polls are wrong.

...anyone who has a modicum of respect for democracy "still wants a recount"...

No, those people who still want a recount of 1984 have no respect for democracy.

We want a recount of 2000, dummy...

Your screen name is "Mondale84." 

[J. J.]

Who is Leif? And why would he be stupid enough to think that Obama was done for when he has healthy leads in all the swing states and solid national leads in all but a few outlier polls that aren't very good?

Ah, he's this guy:

Stick a fork in him. He's done.

Apparently, he didn't realize he was channeling Ann Richards. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 51%, u.

Disapprove 48%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  39%, -1.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 47%, +1


Disapprove: 48%, u

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, -1.

Disapprove 49%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, +2.


46/46 in the horse race; 48/47 Obama with leaners.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 47%, u


Disapprove: 46%, -2

Head to head, tied at 47%.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -3.

Disapprove 50%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, +1.

Head to head is tied at 48%.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 51%, +4


Disapprove: 43%, -3

Head to head, Obama 48% (+1), Romney 46% (-1).


Probably the shift coming off the 47% remark.  If Rasmussen is correct, it will be ephemeral.

[J. J.]

This election continues to track close to the 2004 election. Obama's approval rating is now right around where Bush's was today 8 years ago and on election day. The big difference is that Kerry's personal approval ratingss were positive and Romney's are negative

Actually, Obama's running about 2 points behind GW Bush at this point.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, u.

Head to head is tied at 47/46 Obama, but with leaners 48/48.  On 10/1, Rasmussen will start including leaners in their head to head numbers.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 51%, u


Disapprove: 42%, -1

Head to head, Obama 48% (u), Romney 46% (u).

It looks like a lag on Gallup from the 47% remark.  Obama's approval rating was down for the last week, which probably doesn't include the results for the 47% remark.