The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

The Senate may not be able to filibuster.

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/186133-reid-triggers-nuclear-option-to-change-senate-rules-and-prohibit-post-cloture-filibusters

That just restricted certain kinds of procedural votes after a cloture motion has been passed.

Yes, but you can set up the situation where you can get those kind of procedural votes.

[J. J.]

Gallup

Approve 50% (+2)
Disapprove 45% (+2)

I would not be too surprised if there was an overly pro-Obama sample that would be still in there.  I would not be too concerned about a big drop tomorrow, if it happens.

Head to 49/46 Obama.

[J. J.]

The Senate may not be able to filibuster.

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/186133-reid-triggers-nuclear-option-to-change-senate-rules-and-prohibit-post-cloture-filibusters

That just restricted certain kinds of procedural votes after a cloture motion has been passed.

Yes, but you can set up the situation where you can get those kind of procedural votes.

Again, the threat of retribution is too high.  They know that if they did that, the next Dem would be vindictive enough to ram through single payer and the Eisenhower tax brackets to pay for it. 

Only the electorate could prevent it.  I'm tempted to say, "Bring it on."

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, u.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  42%, +1.

Head to head is at 49/47 Romney/Obama (u).

The numbers include  a sample taken after the debate and 2/3 after the job numbers.  It might very well be ephemeral.

[J. J.]

Gallup

Approve 48% (-2)
Disapprove 46% (+1)


Head to 49/46 Obama, unchanged.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 51%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, -2.

Head to head is at 48/48 Romney/Obama (-1/+1).

Sample includes all numbers after debate and jobs report.

[J. J.]

Gallup

Approve 51% (+3)
Disapprove 44% (-2)


Head to 50/45 Obama, +1/-1.

[J. J.]

If his approvals stay around there, that's at least a 4 point win.

There was a 2 and 4 point gain on Gallup on the 10/3 and 10/4, respectively, for Obama.  It boosted the weekly numbers, but it passed.  I think this is too.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, -2.

Disapprove 50%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +3.

Head to head is at 48/48 Romney/Obama (u).

[J. J.]

Gallup

Approve 53% (+2)
Disapprove 42% (-2)


Head to Head, Registered:

Obama:  49 -1

Romney: 46 +1

Head to Head, Likely:

Obama:  47, -1

Romney, 49, +1

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

The bounce does not appear to be ephemeral. 

(Oops)

[J. J.]

The bounce does not appear to be ephemeral.  

That cannot be determined as Gallup is still using a 7 day tracker for some strange reason.

Oct 2-8, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

It should be noted that there are still two days in it that were pre debate.

[J. J.]

The bounce does not appear to be ephemeral.  

That cannot be determined as Gallup is still using a 7 day tracker for some strange reason.

Oct 2-8, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

It should be noted that there are still two days in it that were pre debate.

Exactly. And days immediately post debate. Therefore you can't judge the bounce.

Well, what has happened after the bounce has not driven it down (if it was a single day bounce).

[J. J.]

How can the race be so tight if these numbers are accurate?

The only number sticking out is Gallup's approval numbers.

[J. J.]

Well technically 'ephemeral' doesn't mean just one day... it means a short period of time... or probably 'transitory' is a better description...

But that's by the by...

"Transitory" implies a transition, or at least can be readily confused with that.  "Ephemeral" implies a temporary condition that will revert back to the status quo in a short period of time.

[J. J.]

Well technically 'ephemeral' doesn't mean just one day... it means a short period of time... or probably 'transitory' is a better description...

But that's by the by...

"Transitory" implies a transition, or at least can be readily confused with that.  "Ephemeral" implies a temporary condition that will revert back to the status quo in a short period of time.

Which, depending on who you listen to, this MIGHT have been... but I doubt we'll know until the weekend. The blessings of multi-day polls...

The initial polling look like a swing, as opposed to an ephemeral bounce, but we won't know until the weekend.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 34%, +4.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, u.

Head to head is at 48/47 Romney(u)/Obama (-1).

The Strongly Approve numbers are up for both candidates, dramatically.  This is either a bad sample or an increase in enthusiasm. 

[J. J.]

its probably sampling

No, it matches Gallup's tracking closely.

The only strange number is Gallup approval.  Gallup tracking is 48/48.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 51%, +2.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, -4.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, -2.

Head to head is at 48/47  Obama (+1)/Romney (-1).

[J. J.]

Gallup

Approve 52% (-1)
Disapprove 43% (+1)


Head to Head (Likely Voters)

Romney:  48 (u)

Obama:  47 (-1)

Obama leads 48/46 on Registered Voters.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, -1.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, .

Head to head is at 48/47  Romney (u)/Obama (u).

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, -1.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, .

Head to head is at 48/47  Obama (u)/Romney (u).

Head to head is Obama at 47 (-1) and Romney at 48 (+1)

Thank you; I corrected it.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, u.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, .

Head to head is at 49/48  Romney (+1)/Obama (+1).

[J. J.]

Gallup

48% Approve (-2)

46% Disapprove(+2)

Likely voters:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -2.

Disapprove 50%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  44%, +3.

Either a bad sample or both bases are riled up. 

Head to head is at 49/47  Romney (+1)/Obama (-1).

[J. J.]

Gallup

48% Approve (u)

47% Disapprove(+1)

Likely voters:

Romney:  49, u

Obama:  47, u


Joementum?