The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Sam Spade]

The SUSA numbers extrapolate to 49%.

[Sam Spade]

NBC/WSJ is a good poll.  Don't confuse it with CBS/Zogby.

[Sam Spade]

Folks, it's Labor Day.  Means the polling sucks worse than normal.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2009/republican_voters_say_gop_reps_in_congress_still_out_of_touch

Is anyone more horrified by this? The current makeup of Republicans are too LIBERAL? What on earth have they done that was liberal?

Duke, I told you in February/March what was going on within the Republican party (or where it's headed for the time being).  I'll repeat it if I have to, but it was as obvious then as now.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2009/republican_voters_say_gop_reps_in_congress_still_out_of_touch

Is anyone more horrified by this? The current makeup of Republicans are too LIBERAL? What on earth have they done that was liberal?

Duke, I told you in February/March what was going on within the Republican party (or where it's headed for the time being).  I'll repeat it if I have to, but it was as obvious then as now.

No need to repeat your little caveat. I remember what you said. No matter what happens, the Republican Party is still the lesser of the two evils when it comes to the things I care about.

What do you care about?  And I mean this in a serious sense.

[Sam Spade]

Wow, a few days after Obama gives a speech on a health care reform (of some sort), support for health care reform goes up.

I can't tell you how shocked I am about that.

[Sam Spade]

New Mexico (Albuquerque Journal / Research & Polling Inc.)

53% Approve
37% Disapprove

Sept. 8-10, 402 registered voters, 5% margin of error

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nm_approval_ratings_albuquerqu.php

Interesting. In November New Mexico was advantage Democrat, now it seems to be at about the national level.

NM polling = crapshoot

I just want to make a logical point here that people seem to be missing with regards to state polls:

Excluding turnout issues and what not - once Obama's approval got/gets under his 2008 number of 53% (and probably even before that), we should probably expect the greatest reversals in the states where he most strongly outperformed Kerry.  That 5% or so of voters are almost undoubtedly his weakest supporters and would probably be the quickest to jump off the approval bandwagon within his coalition.

[Sam Spade]

Why do you continue to ignore the question about why you chose to include this NJ poll and rejected the earlier one?

I'm going to keep asking until you answer.

Do you like banging your head against a wall too?

[Sam Spade]

Obama's approval seems to stay stable at his Election Day levels (53%). During the town hall meetings and all the outrage over healthcare, his approval dropped to 50%, but he quickly rebounded.

A bounce at 50% after going through the 53% level is not terribly surprising.  In fact, I quite expected it (references past posts).

Numbers-wise, this bounce should extend into the mid-50s or so, maybe upper 50s over the next few months, before turning down again.

If the bounce to 53% is all there is, then the odds go up quite exponentially that his approvals will be above disapprovals by 2010 elections (excluding major outside unexpected events, of course).

[Sam Spade]

SUSA’s Monthly numbers are out:

Alabama: 37/61
California: 62/33
Iowa: 46/48
Kansas: 39/57
Kentucky: 39/57
Minnesota: 55/40
Missouri: 44/54
New Mexico: 50/45
New York: 63/33
Oregon: 59/37
Virginia: 49/48
Washington: 53/42
Wisconsin: 47/47

http://www.surveyusa.com/50StateTracking.html

Still extrapolates to 49%-50% approval nationally, not much different than last month.

[Sam Spade]

Sometimes you get one of those samples.  No biggie.

Technically though, right now (starting in mid-September) to the next few months is when Obama should be bouncing.  At least that's what the chart is telling me.

[Sam Spade]

Recent national polling:

ABC/WaPo: 56% Approve, 42% Disapprove
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/hp/ssi/wpc/postpoll_111609.html?hpid=topnews
CBS (adults):  53% Approve, 36% Disapprove
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_obama_111709.pdf
CNN (adults):  55% Approve, 42% Disapprove
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/17/rel17d.pdf
FOX (RV):  46% Approve, 46% Disapprove
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/111909_ObamaPoll.pdf
PPP (RV):  49% Approve, 46% Disapprove
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_1119.pdf
Quinnipiac (RV):  48% Approve, 42% Disapprove
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1397

[Sam Spade]

pbrower must be a climate change scientist.

[Sam Spade]

SurveyUSA has their monthly Obama approvals out today:

Alabama 38/59
California 53/38
Kansas 38/58
Kentucky 38/58
Missouri 38/58
New York 53/39
Oregon 47/47
Virginia 37/60
Washington 48/48

Brutal, just brutal.

The Iowa, New Mexico, and Minnesota numbers haven’t been posted on the site. I will post here when they do.

They didn't do Iowa, NM and Minnesota last month, so I wouldn't exactly expect them this month.

Spade's extrapolation of these numbers would have Obama's approval at 45%.  However, given the states polled, I suspect that's a point or two too low.  Still not good.

[Sam Spade]

Ignore the noise folks (whether positive or negative) - simply keep your eye on the trendline I've pointed out on both Gallup and Rasmussen.

[Sam Spade]

A few more...

NBC/WSJ (1008 Adults, 12/11-12/14)
Approve 47%
Disapprove 46%

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/___Politics_Today_Stories_Teases/091215_NBC_WSJ_Poll.pdf

AP/GfK/Roper (1001 Adults, 12/10-12/14)
Approve 56%
Disapprove 42%

http://surveys.ap.org/data%5CGfK%5CAP-GfK%20Poll%20December%20Release%201%20Topline%20121509.pdf

Pew Research (1504 Adults, 12/9-12/13)
Approve 49%
Disapprove 40%

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/572.pdf

[Sam Spade]

Folks, there's a couple of possible reasons why Rasmussen and Gallup are diverging, separate from:

a) the usual sampling error inherent in polls (and that error would correct itself soon enough, anyways) and perhaps, just as importantly,
b) the weekday vs. weekend partisan swings that historically Gallup has (Rasmussen weights a lot of this out). 

These last two reasons mean that Obama may have had a bounce - or maybe not.  Pop Quiz - can anyone tell me why both things could occur?

Anyway, the two reasons separate from the above usual reasons are not particularly good for Obama, if they are actually occurring.  One of them (#2) is particularly bad, actually.  Listed below:

1) Democrats were energized positively by the SOTU; Republicans/conservative (or Obama disapproving) Indys were energized even stronger, so much so that appear in greater numbers in the polls after the speech.  Gallup doesn't weight by party, so these swings would appear in the poll, whereas they would get weighted out by Rasmussen, resulting in the Democratic positive enthusiasm remaining in the poll, where the other gets weighted out.

2) Most Democrats were energized positively by the SOTU, but some Democrats were energized negatively by the speech, such that they either didn't respond to the poll or respond to the poll, identify as Indys and say they're neutral or disapprove.  Once again, this swing in "party ID" that would result would get weighted out by Rasmussen, but would appear in Gallup.

We should know more in about a week or so as to whether the normal polling factors are at play or whether the two other reasons dominate.

So, Republicans partisans can believe in the good reasons (for them) and Democrats can believe good reasons (for them) and we can all be happy.

Nevertheless, I suspect all of this washes away in a few weeks, regardless of which reason is the cause.

Btw, lastly, these two "other" reasons should always be in the back of your mind should Gallup and Rasmussen diverge as such and should always be remembered whenever you face polls weighted by party vs. polls not weighted by party because they're a bit counterintuitive.

[Sam Spade]

I know this has been observed before, namely during last year's campaign, but the past couple of weeks provide further evidence for another pet theory of mine.

Rasmussen's polls lead in movement (whether up or down), Gallup follows usually a few days after.

[Sam Spade]

As I said before, there's a lot of congestion between his 2008 number 53% and the mid-40s (this translates slightly higher in an adults poll FWIW). 

It ain't gonna be taken down overnight - though the fact that the 53% was sliced through so easily last year is not the greatest sign for the long-term.

[Sam Spade]

Approvals look like a bunch of noise to me for the past few months - around 50% in adult polls and 2-4 points less in RV/LV polls. 

Carry on, I'll post again if something interesting happens.

[Sam Spade]

Given that the "Strongly approve" figures dropped sharply in the past days, it might be that liberal Democrats are abandoning him because he wants to build 2 more nuclear reactors in Georgia.

I doubt that there's more than 3 people in the US who care about whether we build nuclear reactors in GA.

[Sam Spade]

The Indiana fake numbers were just to make pbrower look like an idiot (think SOUTH CAROLINA) and naturally he obliged since he is one.

[Sam Spade]

USA Today/Gallup (3/26-3/28, 1033 Adults - NOT THE TRACKING POLL)
47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-03-29-health-poll_N.htm

CNN/Opinion Research (3/25-3/28, 935 RV)
51% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/03/29/rel6b.pdf

[Sam Spade]

USA Today/Gallup (3/26-3/28, 1033 Adults - NOT THE TRACKING POLL)
47% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-03-29-health-poll_N.htm

CNN/Opinion Research (3/25-3/28, 935 RV)
51% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/03/29/rel6b.pdf

For the same period, gallup gives different results... lol. Gallup is not better than zogby.

It's called MOE.

[Sam Spade]

I'm actually working on an approval release myself right now (in addition with state polling stuff).

However, I work on spreadsheet, not maps, so don't expect anything fancy for me.