The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Mr. Morden]

Fwiw, pollster.com has Obama 45.3%/50.5% approve/disapprove, and 48.4%/43.9% favorable/unfavorable, from a regression fit to all polls:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/06/jobapproval-obama_n_726319.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/05/fav-obama_n_726774.html

[Mr. Morden]

The number you saw comes from either AP, Bloomberg, or Battleground.  Those pollsters are pretty hawkish on the difference between favorability and approval.

Every other poll, such as Rasmussen, Democracy Corps(D), NBC/WSJ, doesn't find that much difference between the ratings as do the three aforementioned pollsters.

But I still contend that asking about favorability after asking about approval is a prompt to respondents to answer the question differently.

I think there is a difference.

You can have a favourable opinion of someone, but not approve of the way they're handling the job. It's interesting, it's rarely the other way in the US.

It did happen in the later years of the Clinton White House.  People thought he was scum in his personal life, but did a good job as president.  So his job approval was higher than his favorability.

[Mr. Morden]

Obama approval rating September 2010 (gallup):

45% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 45/39 (September 1978)

Reagan: 42/48 (September 1982)

Bush I: 72/18 (September 1990)

Clinton: 42/52 (September 1994)

Bush II: 67/28 (September 2002)

Interesting.

It's interesting that Carter and Reagan were in such similar positions in year 2, given their ultimate results.

It basically just shows that there's no real correlation between presidential popularity at the 2 year mark and that president's reelection chances.  2 years is just too far in advance to make a reliable prediction on whether a president will be reelected.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm personally curious as to why Tender Branson would care enough to be spinning the loss of the Democrat Party. Maybe he has family in Thailand or something.

Opebo is like family to Tender Branson.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't even get the whole "Democrat" thing. I mean, I know it's a sure sign that the person speaking is a hack, but other than that... is it some kind of play on the word "rat"?

Wikipedia explains everything:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrat_Party_(phrase)

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[Mr. Morden]

Tander Branson can you make a new map please?

There are no new Obama job approval ratings to come out since his last map.  The PPP #s you quote aren't approval ratings.  They're head to head matchups, part of a PPP polling release which is discussed here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127849.0

This thread is for Obama job approval ratings, not general election matchups.

[Mr. Morden]

Agree on Klobuchar.  Gillibrand is also a good bet to run and do well.

I honestly find Gillibrand pretty underwhelming.  Klobuchar, sure.  I could see her run for president at some point.  But Gillibrand?  Is there anything more there than the fact that she's a young female Senator from New York?

[Mr. Morden]

As a rule, I reject pollsters who lack independence or consistently offer suspect results. Someone polling for a political party, a union, a trade association, fringe media or groups, or a 527 group like  American Crossroads is unlikely to get an unbiased result. As I have shown, I would reject a poll that shows 65% approval for the President in Oklahoma or 35% approval for the President in Vermont when nationwide polls suggest 50% is suspect. Would you trust a poll from the NAACP or NARAL? 

What about someone who does polling for a left wing blog (PPP for Daily Kos) or someone who has done polling for Fox News (Rasmussen)?  At one point, you were explicitly excluding Fox polls:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=91754.6270

[Mr. Morden]

TX (University of Texas)

Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 45%
Not sure: 9%

http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/poll/files/201105-summary.pdf

Don't toy with us Mr. Morden.

[Mr. Morden]

Michigan (EPIC-MRA)

53% (+9) Favorable
40%  (-9) Unfavorable

49% (+11) Excellent/Good
50%  (-11) Fair/Poor

The poll of 600 likely 2012 voters from across the state was taken from May 9-11. It was a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

http://www.freep.com/article/20110516/NEWS15/110516056/Obama-approval-up-Michigan-after-bin-Laden-s-death

Again, EGFP  and favorable/unfavorable both fail to fit the parameters of this thread.

And your repeated posting of general election matchup polling and 5-colored maps modeling Obama's reelection chances does "fit the parameters of this thread"?

[Mr. Morden]

Well, I agree that you shouldn't put those on your maps.  But this thread isn't just about your maps.

It seems rather silly of you to criticize Tender's posting of E/G/F/P polls in this thread, considering the amount of space you devote to items here that are only tenuously connected to Obama approval ratings.

[Mr. Morden]

pbrower, you misunderstand me.  You're right to exclude EGFP polls from your maps, but the thread isn't about your maps.  "EGFP  and favorable/unfavorable both fail to fit the parameters of this thread" is a silly comment.  They fail to fit the parameters of your *maps*, but they do fit the parameters of this thread.

[Mr. Morden]

Rasmussen polled NJ this week, but approvals are only available to premium members because of Rasmussen's shadyness in recent years.

link

I modified your post because the URL was stretching the page.

[Mr. Morden]

I just deleted the last couple of posts in the thread because it was getting too personal.

Guys, I know some of you may not like poundingtherock, but the rule against personal attacks does not have any special exemption for him.  If you don't want to read his posts, you can always put him on ignore.

[Mr. Morden]

I just deleted the last couple of posts in the thread because it was getting too personal.

Guys, I know some of you may not like poundingtherock, but the rule against personal attacks does not have any special exemption for him.  If you don't want to read his posts, you can always put him on ignore.

How's this for a personal attack?

You know what I want, Mr Morden? I'd like to live just long enough to be there when they cut off your head and stick it on a pike as a warning to the next ten generations that some favors come with too high a price. I would look up at your lifeless eyes and wave like this. *waves* Can you and your associates arrange this for me, Mr. Morden?

10 point infraction

(kidding....though it would be hilarious if someone reported that)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0n2vurSBIQ