The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It is far more analogous to 1940 in that the President does badly on the economy, but does well on foreign policy. In 1940, it was WWII breaking out in Europe that saved FDR by knocking the economy down a few rungs as the most important issue. Most came to the conclusion that he had failed to the end the Depression, but prefered a two term President to a guy with no political experience when the things went to hell in a hand basket in Europe. The question for Obama is, what could arise overseas that won't be spun successfully by the opposition as being a result of a failure by Obama. Considering the realities of the modern US and it's role in the world compared to 1939 and 1940, there is little that can occur that can't be connected with the President's foreign policy as far as a campaign goes. Back then the US was far less engaged in the world as a matter of practice and principle stretching back to Washington.  

It is also similar in that the President had a very unfavorable result in the previous midterm election. In 1938, Republicans had gained enough seats to block legislation in conjunction with Conservative Democrats in the South and other places. In 2010, the Republicans took the House.


Such is the 1930's on an expedited time scale. 1934 and 1936 are skipped because of the higher level of impatience on the part of the electorate, the 24 hour news cycle and of course the much higher level of distrust in gov't. In the 1930's, gov't wasn't so disliked by the people that it was on the same level as bankers almost like it is now. As such, people embraced programs and reforms made by gov't to fix problems and only turned against FDR once the results were inferior to what was desired. Now, people turned against programs even before they are passed going back to the Bush administration. There is no grace period of "well let's give him a chance to clean it up". It's "fix it now, or you are gone".

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Rasmussen:

23-38 [-15]

47-51

The strongly disapprove vs. strongly approve business is irrelevant, unless one of the two somehow exceeds 50%.

I would say that the mid-forties is the danger area, while 50% is fatal.

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So if next Nov 1, Obama is at 50%A/46%D and 45% disapprove strongly, you would predict he would lose?  I don't agree.  Similarly, an incumbent with 44% approval and 43% approve strongly, probably still isn't going to win.

It reflects an intensity gap that coud swing a tied race against him based on turnout. But not much more.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Apples and Oranges.