The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (user search)
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1207581 times)
Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #25 on: January 07, 2011, 06:25:43 PM »

That's quite a sober picture for the GOP considering that we have just passed midterms.  Barring a double-dip recession, a massive scandal, or major foreign policy debacle (North Korea?) I can't see Obama losing.
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #26 on: January 08, 2011, 10:26:31 AM »

That's quite a sober picture for the GOP considering that we have just passed midterms.  Barring a double-dip recession, a massive scandal, or major foreign policy debacle (North Korea?) I can't see Obama losing.

We have yet to see any polls for any Southern states except those three that aren't particularly Southern. Rustbowl states may be approaching the mean, but they are doing so from the high side. Some others must be approaching from the low side. Texas? That would be rich.  The only imaginable swing states not yet polled are Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, and New Hampshire.


North Korea? He can give North Korea to the People's Republic of China as a puppet state if necessary to save his political situation.  The People's Liberation Army would be welcomed -- as liberators, which is an unlikely thing to say until you realize that the country in question is North Korea. Another scenario -- a unified but neutral, nuke-free, Republic of Korea that is democratic with a free-market system and more open to commercial dealings with China -- might satisfy just about everyone except a few people who eminently deserve either to be hanged or shut away in a mental institution.

Jon Huntsman was as wise a choice as he could make for Ambassador to China.   
He could do that, then again he might not.  I personally think that North Korea will fall apart on its own and that China will be the first to invade to stop the flow of refugees through its northern border, after which we will jump in at the head of a UN coalition to restore order.  Then the North and South will be slowly integrated after a high level of rebuilding in the North.  Now, we can't predict exactly how all of this will play out when it comes to the political arena. 
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #27 on: January 13, 2011, 10:04:22 PM »

I can't believe anything the stuff this guy says anymore man...
His post is logical.  Do you have any actual criticism or are you just going to put your hands over your ears and shout "Lalalalala I can't hear you!" whenever pBrower posts?
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #28 on: January 18, 2011, 03:50:59 PM »

I'm curious if Obama starts polling above 50 in the next few months if any of the presumed candidates will get cold feet and bail on a run.  I don't think you'll see any majors get in before mid-March.

I'm continuing to assume Palin and Huckabee won't say anything in the 1st half of 2011.  It'll also be curious to see how they continue to poll without announcing or campaigning.  Obama being over 50% for 6 months would probably keep Huck out and maybe Palin as her head-to-head gap would grow.

Any guesses?  I'd say the bigger the opportunity cost, the more likely to pass, like Pence or Huckabee.  And maybe someone like Thune or Daniels if they had mixed feelings to begin with.
Agreed.  At this point, the only people I can think of that appear to be running no matter what are Romney, Pawlenty, Barbour, Santorum, and Johnson
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #29 on: January 20, 2011, 09:22:06 PM »

I give Obama a month until he hits 42% approval.
Maybe.  By Spring for sure.  And  then it will go back up...and down...and up...and down....
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #30 on: February 14, 2011, 07:11:00 PM »

I'm going to say 47-53
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #31 on: February 17, 2011, 09:23:38 AM »


Anyone else notice that PPP's polling for Daily Kos is much less friendly to Obama than their state-by-state polling?

OMGZZZZ!!!!
Elaine Marshall's pimp!!11111
You welfare Nazi, you!!
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #32 on: February 27, 2011, 08:19:47 AM »

Wait, no page 500 celebration?
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #33 on: February 28, 2011, 03:00:28 PM »

North Carolina's looking kind of odd on your map pbrower.

     North Carolina has been acting oddly lately. It seems like the kind of state that could become a Democratic enclave in Republican country 10 years down the line.

Along with the rest of the "New South" (i.e. Virginia and North Carolina and perhaps Georgia long-term, but that's a stretch) and the West.

The Democratic coalition is shifting from an economically based "labor" base to a more progressive professional middle class support group.

Not a transition I'm sad to see happen.
I would say the impetus is the collapse of the Evangelical-Libertarian coalition of the Republicans.  The Democratic Party is just picking up the independents, which makes me wonder whether we will see a breakaway liberal movement in this decade or the next.
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #34 on: March 01, 2011, 08:22:10 PM »

As it stands now, according to polling alone, a Palin loss would look something like this:

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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #35 on: May 03, 2011, 09:00:59 PM »

I'd like to thank the resident Forum haters for proving me right. If going in and killing bin Laden (in a nuclear Pakistan) isn't enough to prove you have the balls to be commander in chief, I don't know what is. Being a "strong and decisive leader" shouldn't be about dressing up like a cowboy and fudging a John Wayne accent.
This.  I still have a grudge with Obama for killing the manned space program and over-compromising on healthcare but he has proven he does have a spine in that thin frame of his.
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #36 on: May 26, 2011, 03:33:43 PM »

pBrower, can you remind me what advantages you give to Obama (because of his incumbent status).
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #37 on: May 26, 2011, 05:40:59 PM »

pBrower, can you remind me what advantages you give to Obama (because of his incumbent status).

Incumbency cannot save the mistake of the previous election who has proved less than up to the job, the one who endures diplomatic or economic debacles, the one who became President without ever having been elected to even statewide office, the one with few achievements that people can pin down, or the fellow whose agenda is fully accomplished with no possibility of a coherent program for a Second Act. 8 of 13 incumbent Presidents seeking re-election were re-elected; five weren't. To be sure, the most marginal re-election (Dubya) got away with what he got away with, but even he knew how to get his campaign apparatus in gear.

So what advantage does an incumbent have?

1. He has won the office before, which may not be so much an indication that he will win again as it is that he knows how to campaign if he must. Such is an advantage for an incumbent over a challenger in most races. If he never won a campaign for high office, then he isn't in high office as an incumbent. Gerald Ford is the obvious exception.

2. Incumbents either run on their records and win or run from those records and lose. This President has a record to run on.

3. The President may be no more adept a campaigner in 2012 than in 2008 -- but he can easily get a campaign out of mothballs little the worse for wear.  The conflicting loyalties that often exist in a challenger's campaign apparatus just won't be there. People on the campaign will have much the same message and won't confuse people.

2016 will be very different for the Democrats because there will be no obvious successor.  That should be obvious. 
Thanks.  Now how exactly do you add percentage points to the state approval ratings?
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #38 on: May 27, 2011, 12:06:10 PM »

Interesting, thanks.
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #39 on: June 10, 2011, 01:48:02 PM »

I think you might be adding too much to Obama.  That map is Generic R, that's Bachmann.  What would the map look like if you only added half as much as you currently do to incumbent advantages?
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #40 on: July 16, 2011, 11:00:06 AM »

Here's a map of Obama vs. Republican polls I cooked up.  I did not count poll options that had a candidate who wasn't running winning or losing to Obama and instead took the declared candidate (usually Romney, sometimes an average of running candidates).  I also through out the Tennessee Poll, which I think is junk. 



When we add in the Kerry states for Obama and McCain states for the Republican, the map looks like the one below, with only Indiana unpolled.

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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #41 on: September 03, 2011, 07:18:49 PM »

For the fun of it, I took the most recent polling data from here to make a map.  Call me pBrower Tongue

I did not mess with the numbers in any way.  Note that in cases where there were polls available for both "named opponent" and "generic republican," I selected "named opponent" in all cases except those in which the only named opponent is not running or the poll is extremely outdated (older than six months, so the oldest polls should date back to March).  States for which no polls that meet this criteria and that are not "junk" exist have been colored grey.

In cases where reliable results exist for more then one credible republican candidate that is currently running, I have averaged them together.  This is why Florida is colored red despite Romney's tie in the latest Quinippiac poll against Obama.  States that average out to be in a tie (actual, not statistical) are colored white.

I have shamelessly stolen the color scheme from pBrower.  Keep in mind, the map shows margins.
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%
white                        tie (margin 1% or less)
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin
deep blue                 Republican over 10%


In this map, I averaged together the scores of Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Michelle Bachmann, and Herman Cain (or any combination thereof).



This map combines Romney with Perry, or Bachmann if he is unavailable (and in the case of Georgia, with Cain).  I also took the precaution of including each individual poll's margin of error in this map.  Hopefully, this one is a bit more accurate.

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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,149
United States


« Reply #42 on: September 05, 2011, 08:58:18 PM »

Here's what I think is the most likely outcome as of now:

"A burst of 350k job growth during spring-summer 2012 and not having to run against Romney saved my presidency."



Obama/Biden 300 EV/ 50.4% PV
Perry/Christie  238 EV/ 48.7% PV

Election Day Unemployment: 8.5%
Do you really think that Ohio will flip before North Carolina?  And there is no way Christie will run as Perry's Veep.  He wants two terms as Governor of New Jersey so that he can run in 2016.
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