The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Skill and Chance]

This is my "The economy has improved, unemployment drops to 8%, the R nominee is Perry/-not Rubio/-Romney, and we're not in a realignment" map:

That's way too optimistic for Perry.  That looks like a Romney vs. Obama map with status quo 2011 economic conditions (i.e. a narrow Romney win).  The toss up states should be shifted one tier to the right with a year of solid jobs growth (or one tier to the left with further job losses).  Perry doesn't play well in IA/CO/NV and he would struggle to avoid being blown out 2:1 in NOVA.

Here's Obama vs. Perry with modest economic improvement:

     

[Skill and Chance]

Obama Average Approval Rating September 2011 (Gallup)

41% Approve

51% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 56/37 (September 1939)

Truman: 55/29 (September 1947) AND 32/54 (September 1951)

Eisenhower: 71/16 (September 1955)

Kennedy: 56/30 (September 1963)

Johnson: 38/48 (September 1967)

Nixon: No poll

Ford: 45/38 (September 1975)

Carter: 33/54 (September 1979)

Reagan: 47/43 (September 1983)

Bush I: 68/23 (September 1991)

Clinton: 46/44 (September 1995)

Bush II: 51/45 (September 2003)

So Truman must have really cratered in the spring of 1948 to be in the 30's in June?

[Skill and Chance]

Rasmussen:

23-38 [-15]

47-51

The strongly disapprove vs. strongly approve business is irrelevant, unless one of the two somehow exceeds 50%.  Everyone gets one vote.  It doesn't matter how passionate that vote is.  It might matter for fund raising, but Obama is presently romping there anyway. 

[Skill and Chance]

Rasmussen:

23-38 [-15]

47-51

The strongly disapprove vs. strongly approve business is irrelevant, unless one of the two somehow exceeds 50%. 

I would say that the mid-forties is the danger area, while 50% is fatal.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So if next Nov 1, Obama is at 50%A/46%D and 45% disapprove strongly, you would predict he would lose?  I don't agree.  Similarly, an incumbent with 44% approval and 43% approve strongly, probably still isn't going to win.

[Skill and Chance]

Rasmussen:

23-38 [-15]

47-51

The strongly disapprove vs. strongly approve business is irrelevant, unless one of the two somehow exceeds 50%.

I would say that the mid-forties is the danger area, while 50% is fatal.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So if next Nov 1, Obama is at 50%A/46%D and 45% disapprove strongly, you would predict he would lose?  I don't agree.  Similarly, an incumbent with 44% approval and 43% approve strongly, probably still isn't going to win.

It reflects an intensity gap that coud swing a tied race against him based on turnout. But not much more.

Intensity gaps are accounted for by using a Likely Voters model.  And polling "likely voters" a year before the election raises its own issues (ex. 18th birthday in 2012, citizenship in 2012, etc.). 

[Skill and Chance]

Actually, Obama's numbers have improved a great deal.  45% on Gallup is survivable. 

I still think he would lose to Romney by a state or two if the election were next month.  That having been said, it's becoming increasingly obvious that he will win with any noticeable economic improvement in 2012.  Romney can beat him in the economic status quo.  If anyone else wins the GOP nomination, they will probably need another 2008-style crash before the election to beat him.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

At this point, 43% is survivable.

I don't agree.  If he's running against Romney and he isn't back to up to 47-49% range by election day, he won't win. 

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

All the recent economic news, especially with today's positive Europe action, has been good for him.  Consumer confidence is way up, unemployment claims below 400,000 for a month, Holiday consumer spending with the greatest year over year increase since 2007.  The only bad/neutral news has been last month's unemployment report, and that didn't seem to have an effect. 

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.

That's initial claims per week.

It was above 400,000 today.

Right, but 400,000 is roughly the "people sense improvement" level for that variable.  It did rise again, but it has averaged below 400,000 over several weeks.  The last time that happened was in Jan and Feb when we had roughly 200K job growth for the month.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

Very little, if any, real change...

A lot of the changes in RCP and other averages is just polls more favorable to Obama (Pew, CBS, Ipsos, etc) rolling in and out or the average...

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had a few odd runs.  I wonder if there is some issue with samples getting out of sync or something.  Both Rasmussen and Gallup buy their raw survey calling lists from the same supplier (Survey Sample International) and I sometimes think there may be some glitch there...

Obama is at the upper end of the 40-45 band for approval, and 50% ish disapproval..

Not good, but not dead in the water either...

Well he could still be following a delayed Reagan path where good economic news props him back up over 50 by late winter and he stays there.  This assumes that Europe stabilizes and the recent uptick in employment and consumer confidence accelerates.

Other than that, or something particularly heroic in foreign policy, I don't know how he gets out of the 42% strong disapproval rut.

[Skill and Chance]

Well we just had a jobs report that looks Reagan 1984 esque on the surface.  In reality, of course it's not that great, but we will have to see which number matters more psychologically. 

[Skill and Chance]

Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

Truman was popular in the fall of 47?!  When did he start cratering to fall into the 30's by the summer of 48?

[Skill and Chance]

He might be rallying back to 50/50 approvals.  The decline in disapproval looks meaningful, but the rise in approval matches the ephemeral bump we saw in October...

[Skill and Chance]

Colorado (Ciruli Associates):

39% Approve
53% Disapprove

Governor John Hickenlooper:

59% Approve
18% Disapprove

http://fciruli.blogspot.com

I know its different polling companies, but have you noticed how much better he is polling nationally than in swing states?  Does Obama have basically unanimous support in CA or something?

[Skill and Chance]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +3.


Probably holiday related bad numbers.

Preferentially sampling people who don't celebrate Christmas?

[Skill and Chance]

Gallup is at 45A/47D.

Either it's a short term bump due to Iraq or a structural improvement due to greater optimism about the economy.  Obama could be following a 6 month delayed Reagan trajectory if it's the latter case.

[Skill and Chance]

This election continues to track close to the 2004 election. Obama's approval rating is now right around where Bush's was today 8 years ago and on election day. The big difference is that Kerry's personal approval ratingss were positive and Romney's are negative

He's still a couple % lower than Bush was, but Bush starts dropping off around this time, so Obama could catch Bush 2004 before the election.  The race is also polling a bit tighter than Bush/Kerry was post-convention (Obama +4 vs. Bush +6), but the variance was a lot larger in 2004, with Kerry being up +2-3 pre-convention bump for Bush vs. Obama being +1-3 on Romney all summer long this year...

[Skill and Chance]

This election continues to track close to the 2004 election. Obama's approval rating is now right around where Bush's was today 8 years ago and on election day. The big difference is that Kerry's personal approval ratingss were positive and Romney's are negative

Actually, Obama's running about 2 points behind GW Bush at this point.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

That's very true.  It looks like the same general pattern with less variability, though.  Romney wasn't running nearly as strong as Kerry pre-incumbent convention.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm going off the RCP average.

But if you want to talk Gallup, since that is the new talking point for the right, remind us what the Gallup approval rating was for the last two presidents who were voted out of office (Cater and George HW Bush) were at this point?

In mid-September?

Carter: 39%

G.H.W. Bush: 37%



 

[Skill and Chance]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, -2


Disapprove: 46%, +2

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

Head to head, is still Obama 50% (u), Romney 44% (u).  Let's see if it closes by Tuesday.

Why would the 47% comment effect Obama job approval.  "Oh, look my opponent said something dumb, therefore I am doing a better job."  It doesn't fit.  47% would drive up Romney's unfavorables as a candidate, not Obama's approval!

As for approval, I think the uptick has more to do with the Dow going from 13,000 to 13,500 than any gaffes or conventions.  We'll see if things stabilize here with the bad econ data this week...

[Skill and Chance]

Why would the 47% comment effect Obama job approval.  "Oh, look my opponent said something dumb, therefore I am doing a better job."  It doesn't fit.  47% would drive up Romney's unfavorables as a candidate, not Obama's approval!

As for approval, I think the uptick has more to do with the Dow going from 13,000 to 13,500 than any gaffes or conventions.  We'll see if things stabilize here with the bad econ data this week...

Actually it does fit.  People do make the comparison with the alternative.

But the QE3 rally coming to an end also fits the timing here.  Historically, gaffes don't fundamentally move a race in polling.  Bitter clingers didn't in 2008, for example.  By contrast, the stock market is highly correlated.

[Skill and Chance]

Why would the 47% comment effect Obama job approval.  "Oh, look my opponent said something dumb, therefore I am doing a better job."  It doesn't fit.  47% would drive up Romney's unfavorables as a candidate, not Obama's approval!

As for approval, I think the uptick has more to do with the Dow going from 13,000 to 13,500 than any gaffes or conventions.  We'll see if things stabilize here with the bad econ data this week...

Actually it does fit.  People do make the comparison with the alternative.

But the QE3 rally coming to an end also fits the timing here.  Historically, gaffes don't fundamentally move a race in polling.  Bitter clingers didn't in 2008, for example.  By contrast, the stock market is highly correlated.

Well, not really.  The market has not improved greatly since QE 3 was announced, though it has improved.

I still maintain that perceptions about the economy are behind Obama's better standing this month than last.  The favorability gap is roughly the same as it has always been but approval is up.  We're  well out of convention bounce range now, so it can't be that.  Consider that Obama and Romney are now in a statistical tie on "handling of the economy" in most polls and that the direction of the country numbers have also closed from 65-30 to about 55-40.  You're right that the economy isn't doing anything amazing, but the markets and consumer confidence are up at the margins.  It's mainly psychological.  It seems like the "this would be 1932 without me" Obama narrative is finally winning over the middle 10%.

[Skill and Chance]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve: 48%, u


Disapprove: 47%, +1

This is probably due to the drop off of the post 47% comment.

Head to head, is still Obama 49% (-1), Romney 44% (u).  Let's see if it closes, even more, by Tuesday.

Gallup goes LV tomorrow, so that will surely close the margin a bit.  I still think it's the relatively bad econ news this week.  Or the end of a small "rally around the leader" related to Libya.

I gather that you think the economy is pretty baked in now, barring something crazy like +350K or net job losses in September?