The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Mehmentum]

Gallup
47% approve (-2)
44% disapprove (u)

[Mehmentum]

It's odd that Gallup and Rasmusen always have almost exactly the same approvals, but Obama's dissaprovals are around 7 points higher on Rasmusen. 

[Mehmentum]

Allright, any faith I once held in Rasmussen's polling is pretty much completely gone. Even a Fox News poll is showing more favorable numbers for the President.

     I don't know about their current pollsters, but back when their polls were done by Opinion Dynamics they had a distinct Democratic lean. That FOX News is a conservative organization doesn't necessarily mean that their polls have a conservative bias.

     With that much said, I do doubt Rasmussen's polls here. They're showing the worst numbers for Obama by a large margin.

Yeah, all other polls (according to RCP) have Obama's approval between 49 and 51%.  Rassmusen at 45% is the outlier.

[Mehmentum]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, a 61% unfavorability rating doesn't bode well for reelection chances.

[Mehmentum]

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
Gallup:
Approve: 45% (+2)
Dissaprove 47% (-2)

[Mehmentum]

Gallup is 46-46 today, so let's wait a few days, but it seems that Obama is up from his recent low.

While I hope he is, this wouldn't be the first time that both Gallup and Rasmussen had blips in the same direction.

[Mehmentum]

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
Gallup-
Approve: 46% (u)
Dissaprove: 45% (-1)

This too, is pre- bounce.

Also, I'll bet 56% on Gallup.

[Mehmentum]

Well of course the rating on the economy is not going to show any difference!  Unless people were somehow thinking that killing Bin Laden would somehow create jobs.

[Mehmentum]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147437/Obama-Approval-Rallies-Six-Points-Bin-Laden-Death.aspx

Among Republicans, Obama's approval has increased by 12; among independents, by 9; among Democrats, none at all.

[Mehmentum]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not necessarily, Virginia is growing more liberal, meaning that it would now be a tossup in a more Republican year than 2006. 

[Mehmentum]

Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

Approve: 51% (u)
Dissaprove: 40% (-1)

[Mehmentum]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Several of which are potential candidates.

[Mehmentum]

Pbrower, light green and dark green mean the same thing on your map. 

[Mehmentum]

Whoah, big Gallup jump today:

53% Approve (+4)
39% Disapprove (-3)

Gallup's been all over the place lately.

[Mehmentum]

47/45 in Gallup, now down 12 net approval points in three days.

It sounds like you're trying to compensate for something.

[Mehmentum]

Gallup:
Approve: 49% (+2)
Dissaprove 43% (-2)

OBAMA REBOUNDS, REELECTION ALL BUT ASSURED!!!! 

[Mehmentum]

If Obama doesn't win PA, which is looking ever likely, I don't think he'll win re-election. Nice to see my boy, Mitt, pull level with him in the overall polls too (although still quite early).

If Pensylvania is swinging Republican, Obama could compensate elsewhere.  

[Mehmentum]

Obama has a legitamate shot at both Virginia and North Carolina.  He consistantly leads all Republicans in matchups.  While its still a long way from election day, Obama may be stronger in North Carolina and Virginia than in Pennsylvania.

NC: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_0523.pdf

VA: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_0510424.pdf
      http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_050042011_MON.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This apparently is the article's rational, Obama doesn't win Ohio or Florida in my scenario.

[Mehmentum]

Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

Approve: 46% (u)
Disapprove: 44% (-1)

[Mehmentum]

How about either a Deep South (Alabama just about suggests itself) or Upper South (Kentucky or Tennessee) next time?

How about Pennsylvania next time?

[Mehmentum]

Obama Approval Rating June 2011 (Gallup)

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 29/57 (June 1979)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1983)

Bush I: 72/21 (June 1991)

Clinton: 47/42 (June 1995)

Bush II: 62/34 (June 2003)

Its interesting how Obama and Reagan have very similar approval graphs on Gallup so far (the only major differences are the Tuscon and Bin Laden bounces).

[Mehmentum]

Building off what I said before, I'm starting to ponder looking at state by state polling data to try to find the percentage for each party that represents the core base for each in every state. Basically by looking at the minimal support Obama gets and the minimal support any of the Republicans get in credible non-partisan-biased polls. If the hard core base is most of what's left of those that approve of Obama enough to vote for him again, then against the strongest challenger he'd have only them left over. And for the lesser known or most disliked Republican candidates or would be candidates those that would vote Republican are those that would vote against Obama under any circumstances and thus most likely to be the core Republican base.

For instance, that PPP poll of Texas in June has the limits of Obama at 40% against Paul and Republican at 43% with Cain. This would suggest a Republican edge in the base there. It does not predict how the more swingy voters would fall in the election, but can provide some information on the size of that pool. So if some how Obama gets a winning strategy to get more then half of these folks on his side, he could win Texas. Its just very unlikely.

Another example, Utah. Obama's worst is 23% vs Huntsman and the Republicans worst is 43% with Palin or Cain. Obama would have to get almost all the swingable voters to be even competitive in Utah. So even if you didn't know the electoral history of Utah previous to this election, this would suggest not to bother sending resources there.

On the dem leaning side of things, there's Vermont. The latest poll has Obama's worst against Huckabee at 53% and the Republicans worst with 26% with Cain. Barring a very radical shift in the socio-political structure of the entire country or Obama going on a murderous rampage through an orphanage, any Republican efforts to win Vermont would be pointless to the extreme as there is not enough swing voters to get to a majority.

Then there's Virginia. The latest poll (all these seem to be PPP... other pollsters need to stop being lazy!) has Obama's worst at 47% vs Romeny and the Republicans worst at 37% with Palin. This is a very good sign for Obama as despite the conservative history of Virginia, it would appear that he's near a lock for the state as he only needs a small fraction of the swing voters to nab it.

Its not really fair to define the Republican base by whether or not they support Palin. 

[Mehmentum]

The PPP and Rasmussen Polls are very close.

Something's wrong.

[Mehmentum]

Gallup must be really taking drugs or something.

38-54 today, when every other pollster now has him between 43% and 47% approval.

Yeah, when Rasmussen has Obama with significantly better approvals than Gallup... well you know something has gone horribly wrong.