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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1026366 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #2825 on: October 17, 2009, 12:54:29 pm »



Not since 1976 has the Democratic nominee won election without Iowa.
hmm you wish it was favorables Tongue

Of course it is possible for a candidate to lose an individual state with a high favorability rating. Obama could have a 65% favorability rating in Utah and lose decisively to Mitt Romney or a similarity rating of a similar level and lose to Mike Huckabee in Arkansas.  But losing under those circumstances requires situations specific to a State to arise.

Obama won 54% of the vote in Iowa, so the favorability rating is close to what one could reasonably expect in 2012 if nothing truly changes.

...It's about time for polls of Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska,  the Dakotas, South Carolina, and West Virginia.
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Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2826 on: October 19, 2009, 10:11:26 am »

New IL numbers (RAS) out later today.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2827 on: October 19, 2009, 11:49:06 am »

Oh. My. Gosh.
Do you not understand that there is a difference between approval ratings and favorable ratings? For example, I favor Bayh, and I like him. But right now, I don't approve of the job he's doing.
If you were actually fair on polling, you would dismiss these polls. But of course, you won't.
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Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2828 on: October 19, 2009, 12:13:44 pm »

Illinois (Rasmussen)Sad

56% Approve
44% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 14, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/illinois/toplines/toplines_2010_illinois_senate_october_14_2009
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2829 on: October 19, 2009, 12:44:21 pm »

Illinois (Rasmussen)Sad

56% Approve
44% Disapprove

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 14, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/illinois/toplines/toplines_2010_illinois_senate_october_14_2009

All that changes is a letter:



Please wake me when fresh Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, West Virginia, Arizona, or Colorado polls appear.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2830 on: October 19, 2009, 02:42:53 pm »

Why I disagree with rounding up:
Your map makes it appear that at least 60% of Illinois residents approve of Obama, when less than 60% does. It is deceiving.
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change08
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« Reply #2831 on: October 19, 2009, 02:59:16 pm »

Why I disagree with rounding up:
Your map makes it appear that at least 60% of Illinois residents approve of Obama, when less than 60% does. It is deceiving.

I agree.

Use the %s in the same way that you would for an election map... I.E. No rounding.
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GLPman
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« Reply #2832 on: October 19, 2009, 03:59:49 pm »

Why I disagree with rounding up:
Your map makes it appear that at least 60% of Illinois residents approve of Obama, when less than 60% does. It is deceiving.
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« Reply #2833 on: October 19, 2009, 04:22:49 pm »

Why I disagree with rounding up:
Your map makes it appear that at least 60% of Illinois residents approve of Obama, when less than 60% does. It is deceiving.

^^^^

pbrower2a is a left wing drone who tries to make Obama approval look greater than it actually is.
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FloridaRepublican
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« Reply #2834 on: October 19, 2009, 04:29:39 pm »

Tsk tsk tsk...

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 30% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -10. This is the fourth straight day the Approval Index has been in negative double digits"
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2835 on: October 19, 2009, 06:47:33 pm »

Tsk tsk tsk...

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 30% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -10. This is the fourth straight day the Approval Index has been in negative double digits"

WHY HASN'T OBAMA RESIGNED YET
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2836 on: October 19, 2009, 06:52:23 pm »
« Edited: October 20, 2009, 12:56:31 am by pbrower2a »

I don't round up between 45% and 55%.  I see a  bigger distinction between 53% and 56% than between  50% and 53%, largely because 56% is outside the usual margin of error in polls. (Really, 55% is too, but I took enough heat to buckle on that one).   60% (really 56-64%) approvals are rare (look at the map), and 70% approvals might not even exist at times.  

That applies to negative approvals too. If Obama has a disapproval rating of 56%, I round that up too.  

I look more at the likelihood of winning than the likely margin of winning or losing. Surely you can see the very dark shades, too, in the South and the Great Plains region, and I don't underplay those.   All in all, my map is the best surrogate now available for predicting whether Obama would win or not win certain states when we have no idea of who his opponent will be (which would change much). It can show whether Obama would win with approvals as they are at a given time. It can show patterns of regional change in support.

Does anyone doubt that if one started to see lots of pale greens and yellows in New England that Obama would be in trouble there? If I saw a bunch of pale yellows and greens in the South or the Plains, then that would say something about Obama's chances of winning there.

The current pattern looks much like polls did for Obama a year ago, three weeks before November 4, 2008.  
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Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2837 on: October 20, 2009, 12:34:31 am »

Why I disagree with rounding up:
Your map makes it appear that at least 60% of Illinois residents approve of Obama, when less than 60% does. It is deceiving.

pbrower2a has a valid point. It`s only 56% in "Rasmussen-World".

There's also another IL poll out and it shows:

(with an opinion)

64% Approve
36% Disapprove

(incl. undecideds)

63% Approve
35% Disapprove

http://paulsimoninstitute.org/images/PDF/simon_institute_poll_results.pdf
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Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2838 on: October 20, 2009, 12:53:50 am »

New Jersey (Monmouth University/Gannett)Sad

53% Approve
39% Disapprove

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll was conducted and analyzed by the Monmouth University Polling Institute research staff. The telephone interviews were collected on October 15-18, 2009 with a statewide random sample of 1,004 likely voters. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP30_1.pdf
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Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2839 on: October 20, 2009, 09:12:50 am »

New York (Siena College)Sad

65% Favorable
31% Unfavorable

This SRI survey was conducted October 14-18, 2009 by telephone calls to 624 New York State registered voters. It has a margin of error of + 3.9 percentage points. Data was statistically adjusted by age, gender, party and geography to ensure representativeness. Sampling was conducted via random digit dialing weighted to reflect known population patterns.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/09%20October%20SNY%20Poll%20Release%20--%20Final.pdf
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officepark
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« Reply #2840 on: October 20, 2009, 10:20:18 am »

Why I disagree with rounding up:
Your map makes it appear that at least 60% of Illinois residents approve of Obama, when less than 60% does. It is deceiving.

pbrower2a has a valid point. It`s only 56% in "Rasmussen-World".

*facepalm*

So what if Rasmussen says it is 56%?

I bet pbrower would do this rounding up nonsense no matter who is doing the poll.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2841 on: October 20, 2009, 01:41:12 pm »
« Edited: October 26, 2009, 06:12:23 pm by pbrower2a »

Why I disagree with rounding up:
Your map makes it appear that at least 60% of Illinois residents approve of Obama, when less than 60% does. It is deceiving.

pbrower2a has a valid point. It`s only 56% in "Rasmussen-World".

*facepalm*

So what if Rasmussen says it is 56%?

I bet pbrower would do this rounding up nonsense no matter who is doing the poll.

True, except for one thing: I don't consider the rounding "nonsense". I do it both ways, so I am consistent. I average polls less than two weeks apart because a three-day difference between Rasmussen and PPP doesn't mean much.  

If a bunch of polls in September 2012 showed that Obama were ahead 57% to 43% in Michigan and behind 57% to 43% in Texas,  but were ahead 52% to 48% in Florida and behind 52% to 48% in Indiana that he would be bleeding resources from Florida to Texas to make Texas "closer" or from Indiana to Michigan to widen his lead in Michigan? I'd expect exactly the opposite, which is how he did things in 2008.

Until we see lots of statewide individual match-ups (let us say Huckabee 49%, Obama 44% in Arizona or Obama 49%,  Romney 47% in Iowa) the favorability and performance ratings are all that we have.    

At least I show my methods.  Yes, I round up 56% because the difference between 56% and 62% is much less significant in winner-take-all elections than is the difference between 56% and 52%.  I have rounded both ways, and a 56% disapproval rating also rounds to 60%.

Why do I do it this way? Because in 2008, campaigning operated on the margin -- and not on the general level of support. 
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Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2842 on: October 21, 2009, 12:38:41 am »

New Quinnipiac Florida and NY polls coming out later today.
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Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2843 on: October 21, 2009, 12:50:06 am »

Michigan (EPIC-MRA)Sad

48% Excellent/Good
51% Fair/Poor

51% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

The poll was conducted between Oct. 11-15 of 600 voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

http://woodtv.triton.net/news/epic%20poll%2010209.txt
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2844 on: October 21, 2009, 01:23:19 am »
« Edited: October 22, 2009, 12:39:34 pm by pbrower2a »

Michigan (EPIC-MRA)Sad

48% Excellent/Good
51% Fair/Poor

51% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

The poll was conducted between Oct. 11-15 of 600 voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

http://woodtv.triton.net/news/epic%20poll%2010209.txt



The Michigan result is an average of an approval and a performance rating. Both have been used.

Obama support is shaky in Michigan now -- economy in the sewer? The pale green is marginally above a 50-50 tie. No Democratic nominee for President has won election without Michigan since Jimmy Carter in 1976, and then only because of Michigan's Favorite Son (Gerald Ford).

Cash for Clunkers is over, so that can explain much.  It was popular in Michigan.
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Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2845 on: October 21, 2009, 07:49:15 am »

Florida (Quinnipiac)Sad

48% Approve
46% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1386

New York (Quinnipiac)Sad

62% Approve
32% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1387
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2846 on: October 21, 2009, 08:18:24 am »

Favorable are not approvals!
Everyone, please disregard Phacker's map on Michigan. It is false.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #2847 on: October 21, 2009, 08:43:05 am »


True

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

"Fair", of course, is not necessarily a negative appraisal
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Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2848 on: October 21, 2009, 08:54:06 am »

Louisiana (Southern Media and Opinion Research)Sad

45% Excellent/Good
54% Not So Good/Poor

This statewide poll was developed and conducted by Southern Media & Opinion Research, Incorporated and paid for by Lane Grigsby. Interviews for this statewide poll were completed by telephone with 600 likely Louisiana voters from Sunday, October 4, 2009, through Wednesday, October 7, 2009. The overall margin of error for the statewide statistics obtained from the survey data is not greater than plus or minus 4.0 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.  In other words, there is a 95% certainty that the statistics presented from the results obtained on this survey of 600 likely voters statewide will not be more than 4.0 percentage above or below the figure that would be obtained if all of the likely voters in the state would have been interviewed.

http://www.bayoubuzz.com/News/Louisiana/Politics/Louisiana_Poll__Vitter_Leads_Obama_Hurts_State_Concerned_Over_Cuts__9681.asp
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2849 on: October 21, 2009, 09:00:34 am »

Interesting polls, Florida and Louisiana:



Sometimes you get what you ask for. Florida isn't that much of a surprise; Obama barely won the state in 2008. Recent polls in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee suggest that although he would lose those states he wouldn't lose them by as much as in 2008. Could the political polarization of 2008 be abating?

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