Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 18, 2020, 06:55:51 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 110 111 112 113 114 [115] 116 117 118 119 120 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1026214 times)
Rowan
RowanBrandon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2850 on: October 21, 2009, 09:02:07 am »

Interesting polls, Florida and Louisiana:



Sometimes you get what you ask for. Florida isn't that much of a surprise; Obama barely won the state in 2008. Recent polls in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee suggest that although he would lose those states he wouldn't lose them by as much as in 2008. Could the political polarization of 2008 be abating?



No, and you're an idiot if you think it will be close in those states.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,713
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2851 on: October 21, 2009, 09:07:43 am »

Favorable are not approvals!
Everyone, please disregard Phacker's map on Michigan. It is false.

Take a look at the title of this thread. There just aren't enough of the polls that you prefer. That is your problem -- not mine. Given a choice I averaged because I have no cause to favor one sort of poll over another.

The average of 51% and 48% is 49.5%. The average of 45% and 51% is 48%. Thus a light-green shade.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,460
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2852 on: October 21, 2009, 09:10:26 am »
« Edited: October 21, 2009, 09:18:02 am by Tender Branson »

I agree with Rowan (though not with the idiot part ... Tongue). There`s a difference in the approval rating and an actual campaign between 2 people. 25% of White People in Lousiana will currently say they approve of Obama, but 10% of them will never vote for Obama, as seen last year, and Obama ends up with 15% of Whites if the election is held now (or even less). Same with Utah: Obama could have 60% approvals there and lose the state by 70-30 today to Romney.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,713
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2853 on: October 21, 2009, 09:26:13 am »



Sometimes you get what you ask for. Florida isn't that much of a surprise; Obama barely won the state in 2008. Recent polls in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee suggest that although he would lose those states he wouldn't lose them by as much as in 2008. Could the political polarization of 2008 be abating?



No, and you're an idiot if you think it will be close in those states.

Florida will almost certainly be close in 2012.

I didn't say that it would be close in Kentucky, Louisiana, or Tennessee; I simply said that it would be closer in 2012 in some of the states that Obama got clobbered in in 2008, perhaps most likely in those states that Bill Clinton won but Obama got crushed in in 2008. Familiarity does not always breed contempt. 

Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,713
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2854 on: October 21, 2009, 12:11:51 pm »

I agree with Rowan (though not with the idiot part ... Tongue). There`s a difference in the approval rating and an actual campaign between 2 people. 25% of White People in Lousiana will currently say they approve of Obama, but 10% of them will never vote for Obama, as seen last year, and Obama ends up with 15% of Whites if the election is held now (or even less). Same with Utah: Obama could have 60% approvals there and lose the state by 70-30 today to Romney.

1. Why does anyone pay attention to this thread? Because it can show trends that suggest where Obama is gaining or losing support.  Such can show the effectiveness or failure of his legislative agenda and consequences of his foreign policy. Such can show whether Obama is gaining or losing support. For example, if a Gallup poll shows Obama 50-50 in approval, then is it because he is losing support in states that he barely won or in states that weren't close? If he is up 54-45, then is he piling on support in New York and California or is he drawing closer in places like Kentucky and Texas? It can show the shape of the next election.

For example, I could see Obama winning 54-45 in 2012 and picking up "only" Missouri, Montana, and Arizona (age wave and the reversal of the Favorite Son effect that allowed McCain to win Arizona) while adding 2% onto every margin by which he won where he did.  A 54-45 split could also imply the paring of some of the gigantic margins by which Obama won while allowing him to pick off more such states as Kentucky, Georgia, the Dakotas, and even Texas.       

2. Obama campaigned very little in some of the states that he lost by large margins, which includes Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana. He worked margins -- which meant that he made lots of campaign appearances in North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, and Ohio. If he is in any doubt about being re-elected in 2012 he will work the margins again as he did in 2008.

3. You are right that favorable/unfavorable and approval/disapproval ratings three years before the 2012 election won't be relevant in 2012. The ideal is of course head-to-head matchups between two known candidates in active campaigns. The only reasonable certainty will be that barring some tragedy, Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2012. They are the best predictors that we now have unless we try to rely upon assessments of political skills, economic performance, and military or diplomatic success. I can try to compare Barack Obama to other Presidents and figure that if he isn't the new Abraham Lincoln he isn't the new Millard Fillmore, either.   

4. Take a good look at one of the surprises of 2008: Virginia. Obama won the state and won it with surprising strength. Virginia had elected a black man as governor (Douglas Wilder) and he proved wholly adequate. In 2012 Americans even in the South -- yes, white ones, too -- will be accustomed to the idea that the President doesn't have to be white. In 2012 Obama runs on his record and wins or runs from his record and loses.

Obama has changed the style of American politics. Will people like that or dislike the change? Time and achievement will tell. If Obama does nothing to aggravate the fears of white Southerners, he could win back the Clinton-but-not-Obama vote and precipitate a landslide.

5. You restate something that I have said; approval ratings alone do not guarantee victory in any given state. Political culture matters greatly in any state, which explains how I have said that Romney could win Utah 70-30 against Barack Obama if Obama has even 60% support there. The prospect of electing the first Mormon President of the United States would have to be even more intoxicating than the "strong drink" that the LDS Church prohibits.  On the other side, Mike Huckabee would likely win Arkansas if Obama had a 60% favorability in Arkansas. The Favorite Son effect is real, too.

But those situations don't operate in enough states to make the difference in any but the closest of elections.  If Obama should have 60% approval ratings in Arizona and Colorado, he almost certainly wins both states against Romney or Huckabee.

6. Should the racial polarization of voting in the Deep South (Louisiana to South Carolina) weaken for the Presidency (if not state office), then Obama wins Louisiana -- and Mississippi. That of course asks for much. I could discuss ethnic polarization of voting in a long story in a thread of its own. That polarization fosters machine politics, with inherent corruption and insensitivity by politicians toward people who will never vote for them, even in hick towns. What if Obama creates a problem of perception -- that he is clearly better than the local machine hacks that people in the Deep South know all too well? In 2008, misgivings about elected officials that southern whites knew all too well (black elected officials associated with local Democratic machines) hurt Obama. Could southern whites see Barack Obama very differently from the corrupt local black politicians that they know (by the way, the white Republican machine pols are no better than the corrupt black Democratic machine pols; such is the nature of machine politics).

One political hack won't hurt Obama in Louisiana in 2012: William "Cold Cash" Jefferson, formerly US Representative, LA-01 (D) and now defeated and convicted of bribery. That crook may have lost Obama any chance to win Louisiana in 2008.  Don't expect him to get any Presidential pardon!

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,460
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2855 on: October 21, 2009, 12:15:46 pm »

So, what do we have on the national front today ?

Gallup: 50-42 (nc, -1)

Rasmussen: 47-53 (nc, +1)

PPP: 51-43

ARG: 57-41 (adults), 56-42 (registered voters)

Zogby: 49-51, 45% Excellent/Good 55% Fair/Poor

Harris: 45% Excellent/Good 55% Fair/Poor
Logged
ajc0918
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,150
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2856 on: October 22, 2009, 12:16:59 pm »

Michigan (EPIC-MRA 10/11-15)

Epic-MRA / Detroit News / WXYZ-TV / WOOD-TV / WILX-TV, WJRT-TV
10/11-15/09; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error

Job Rating:
Pres. Obama: 48% Excellent/Pretty Good, 51% Just Fair/Poor

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/me_2010_gov_epicmra_101115.php
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,626
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2857 on: October 22, 2009, 01:01:44 pm »

Interesting polls, Florida and Louisiana:



Sometimes you get what you ask for. Florida isn't that much of a surprise; Obama barely won the state in 2008. Recent polls in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee suggest that although he would lose those states he wouldn't lose them by as much as in 2008. Could the political polarization of 2008 be abating?



No, and you're an idiot if you think it will be close in those states.

So what was your prediction for Florida last year, Rowan?
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,713
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2858 on: October 22, 2009, 02:13:37 pm »

Interesting polls, Florida and Louisiana:



Sometimes you get what you ask for. Florida isn't that much of a surprise; Obama barely won the state in 2008. Recent polls in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee suggest that although he would lose those states he wouldn't lose them by as much as in 2008. Could the political polarization of 2008 be abating?



No, and you're an idiot if you think it will be close in those states.

I didn't say that Obama will win those states in 2012 -- yet. Could? It's getting interesting. Recent polls in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee suggest that Obama is getting stronger approval than the 2008 election would have suggested in those three states.  A nominee with an approval rating just under 50% at election time is not going to get clobbered in such an area unless the political culture culture is unusual, the opponent is a Favorite Son, or the opponent is a very strong challenger.  Obama's  most recent polls in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee are not much weaker than those that he has in Florida, Ohio, or (something of a surprise this week) Michigan.

The three states have voted together since 1968 (when Wallace won Arkansas and Louisiana and Nixon won Tennessee). Bill Clinton won those three states twice, but Obama got clobbered this time. I don't have one data point from one shaky poll; I have three from different polls. Is Bill Clinton that much different from Barack Obama? Or could it be that white people in those three states (and not only those) just couldn't imagine a black man as President of the United States? They have gotten nine months to associate the Presidency with a black man -- and after three more years they will be much more accustomed to the reality.

I at first thought the poll in Tennessee suspect; after all, it was conducted from a college -- but the methodology was solid. The polls from Kentucky and Louisiana suggest that that poll was no outlier. Of course I would like to see corroboration in other polls -- South Carolina? Arkansas? Missouri? Alabama? Texas? Mississippi? 

People will vote for what they perceive as their self interest. If Barack Obama does well for them, then they will vote for someone who looks little like John F. Kennedy. But even at that, Obama has shown that he doesn't need Kentucky, Louisiana, or Tennessee for winning re-election, but the Republicans absolutely cannot afford to lose any one of those states.
Logged
DariusNJ
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 416


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2859 on: October 22, 2009, 03:36:43 pm »

Democracy Corps Obama FAVORABLES in New Jersey : 54\31

Clarus Virginia Obama Approval: 47 % approve, 43% disapprove
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,460
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2860 on: October 23, 2009, 12:04:21 pm »

Wild swings in the daily trackers for Obama:

Gallup: 54-39 (+3, -2)
Rasmussen: 49-50 (+2, -2)
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2861 on: October 23, 2009, 02:37:50 pm »

Interesting polls, Florida and Louisiana:



Sometimes you get what you ask for. Florida isn't that much of a surprise; Obama barely won the state in 2008. Recent polls in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Tennessee suggest that although he would lose those states he wouldn't lose them by as much as in 2008. Could the political polarization of 2008 be abating?



No, and you're an idiot if you think it will be close in those states.

So what was your prediction for Florida last year, Rowan?

That Obama would win.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,943
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2862 on: October 23, 2009, 02:39:13 pm »

Wild swings in the daily trackers for Obama:

Gallup: 54-39 (+3, -2)
Rasmussen: 49-50 (+2, -2)

I think they both had low one day samples that have just rolled off the average. There was a wild negative swing a few days ago.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 43,079
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2863 on: October 23, 2009, 03:52:09 pm »

Wild swings in the daily trackers for Obama:

Gallup: 54-39 (+3, -2)
Rasmussen: 49-50 (+2, -2)

Those are my kind of swings.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,713
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2864 on: October 24, 2009, 12:01:50 am »
« Edited: October 25, 2009, 09:16:59 am by pbrower2a »

Here was mine, and I allowed no ties :





McCain win 10% or more
McCain win 5% - 9.9%
McCain win up to 4.9%


Obama win 10% or more

Obama win 5% - 9.9%
Obama win up to 4.9%



And reality was:




McCain win 10% or more
McCain win 5% - 9.9%
McCain win up to 4.9%


Obama win 10% or more

Obama win 5% - 9.9%
Obama win up to 4.9%


My tentative prediction for 2012:



Huckabee win 10% or more
Huckabee win 5% - 9.9%
Huckabee win up to 4.9%


Obama win 10% or more

Obama win 5% - 9.9%
Obama win up to 4.9%


Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 51,460
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2865 on: October 26, 2009, 02:24:36 pm »

Massachusetts (Rasmussen)Sad

54% Approve
44% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/massachusetts/toplines/toplines_massachusetts_governor_october_22_2009

Michigan (Rasmussen)Sad

52% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/michigan/toplines_michigan_governor_october_21_2009
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,943
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2866 on: October 26, 2009, 02:26:18 pm »


...Rasmussen fail?
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,713
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2867 on: October 26, 2009, 06:17:02 pm »



The Massachusetts poll looks a bit fishy, but a poll is a poll unless the organization is suspect. Michigan? Not so strange.
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,348
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2868 on: October 26, 2009, 07:24:36 pm »

but a poll is a poll unless the organization is suspect.

Coming from you, LOL.
Logged
Swing Voter
swingvoter
Full Member
***
Posts: 118
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2869 on: October 26, 2009, 07:25:17 pm »


He does seem very biased.
Logged
tmthforu94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,071
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.94, S: 1.35

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2870 on: October 26, 2009, 07:27:06 pm »

Get used to it. Sometimes I think he is a robot, created by the DNC, to try and get people to think Obama is unbeatable in 2012, in the hopes that many Republicans won't even vote.
Logged
Psychic Octopus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,958
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2871 on: October 26, 2009, 07:36:49 pm »

Pbrower has been proficent at predictions in current trends, but I feel he lacks in long term trends.


I believe he posted information about his prediction back in '01 after 9/11, and it was something like Bush winning 400+ electoral votes.
Logged
Swing Voter
swingvoter
Full Member
***
Posts: 118
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2872 on: October 26, 2009, 07:44:11 pm »

Get used to it. Sometimes I think he is a robot, created by the DNC, to try and get people to think Obama is unbeatable in 2012, in the hopes that many Republicans won't even vote.

I don't understand why he is the one running this thread. I see a clear bias and he uses favorability instead of approval, I've noticed! Can't we find someone else to make the fancy little map?
Logged
Psychic Octopus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,958
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2873 on: October 26, 2009, 07:45:15 pm »

Get used to it. Sometimes I think he is a robot, created by the DNC, to try and get people to think Obama is unbeatable in 2012, in the hopes that many Republicans won't even vote.

I don't understand why he is the one running this thread. I see a clear bias and he uses favorability instead of approval, I've noticed! Can't we find someone else to make the fancy little map?

Anyone can make the maps, no one else besides PBrower chooses to, though.
Logged
Swing Voter
swingvoter
Full Member
***
Posts: 118
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2874 on: October 26, 2009, 07:46:44 pm »

Get used to it. Sometimes I think he is a robot, created by the DNC, to try and get people to think Obama is unbeatable in 2012, in the hopes that many Republicans won't even vote.

I don't understand why he is the one running this thread. I see a clear bias and he uses favorability instead of approval, I've noticed! Can't we find someone else to make the fancy little map?

Anyone can make the maps, no one else besides PBrower chooses to, though.

Well, watch this space. I may start making my own nonpartisan maps.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 110 111 112 113 114 [115] 116 117 118 119 120 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC