The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

FL (Quinnipiac): 47-47

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1488

NJ (Quinnipiac): 47-47

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1489

In what world?

I'm not overjoyed with Q outside of the Northeast (and generally NY, NJ and New England).

I still would think NJ is an outlier.

[J. J.]

According to Fox, Obama is at Jimmy Carter levels.

[J. J.]

According to Fox, Obama is at Jimmy Carter levels.

According to Fox, Sarah Palin is good enough to be paid to give political commentary. Just sayin'.

The guy saying it was Carter's old pollster, Pat Caddell.

[J. J.]

FL (Quinnipiac): 47-47

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1488

NJ (Quinnipiac): 47-47

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1489

In what world?

I'm not overjoyed with Q outside of the Northeast (and generally NY, NJ and New England).

I still would think NJ is an outlier.

It's kinda hard picking the outlier of those two. It's doubtful that Obama's even in Florida and it's doubtful that he's even and not above ground in NJ. I'm more inclined to think that the FL is the outlier.

I'd normally pay more attention to Q in NJ than Q in FL, but I still it is too low for Obama in NJ.

[J. J.]

FL (Quinnipiac): 47-47

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1488

NJ (Quinnipiac): 47-47

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1489

In what world?

I'm not overjoyed with Q outside of the Northeast (and generally NY, NJ and New England).

I still would think NJ is an outlier.

It's kinda hard picking the outlier of those two. It's doubtful that Obama's even in Florida and it's doubtful that he's even and not above ground in NJ. I'm more inclined to think that the FL is the outlier.

New Jersey -- possibly the proposed Islamic Cultural Center near Ground Zero. Florida -- end of the Gusher in the Gulf.  My guess, and nothing more.

FL was never hugely effected by the oil spill, especially the east coast.

NJ, if it is the mosque, he's lost the election.  I think NJ is just a bad sample.

[J. J.]

According to Fox, Obama is at Jimmy Carter levels.

Lolz. What ?

It was Carter's pollster saying so. 

[J. J.]

Caddell is renowned for being the Democrats' Debbie Downer.  You know that, J. J.

Yes, and he's generally right when he does it.

He also noted that Obama could change course.

[J. J.]

Florida is very touchy about oil spills. New Jersey? In line with Pennsylvania.

Just wait a month or so. The states get polled frequently.

FL was never that touchy about it.  NJ is never in line with PA.

I think both polls might be bad.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

Still in range.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 53%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

Still in range.  The numbers are exceptionally stable.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +3.

Disapprove 51%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -2.

For formatting.

Probably a good Obama sample moving into the system.  Still barely within range.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +3.

Disapprove 51%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -2.

For formatting.

Probably a good Obama sample moving into the system.  Still barely within range.

Within the range for recent highs. We have been seeing overall approval ratings between 43% for lows and 49% for highs over the last couple of months.  I haven't seen any approval over 50% for about a year now, which really would be outside the range.

I think it is at the upper end of the "normal" range.  If it's 48%+ in four days, there might be some real movement.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

The strongly numbers are at the edge of pro-Obama range.  It could be a good Obamasample moving through the system.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

A strong Obama sample has moved out of the system.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

A strong Obama sample has moved out of the system.

Just curious.  It seems that recently there have been an even number of days showing Obama around 47-48% and those showing him around 44-45%. 

How come every day it goes a little up it must have just been a good Obama sample?  Isn't it just as easy for me to say today's sample is a BAD Obama sample? 

Over the last two months the low for Obama, which was due to a bad sample, was 41% in approve.  The high was 49%.  Based on that, I generally refer to approval rates at 47%-49% and 41%-43% as probably good and bad samples, respectively, unless they stay around for more than three days. 

In other words, every little down is a bad Obama sample.  I'm saying he's staying stable.

I would note that when Obama was at 43% approval (about 10 days ago), I said "bad Obama sample."

Perhaps I should ask why you only ask the question after the good sample moves through the numbers, and not when a bad sample drops out?

[J. J.]

Wow, FL swung hard against Obama once more.

Might it have only been a bounce from cleaning up the spill?

It just could have been a really skewed poll.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +2.

In range, but the disapprove numbers are near the upper end of the range.

[J. J.]

after all, how many people predicted the '08 crash?

Weirdly enough, I did. Going forward, I predict that things will muddle through until at least next year and then start a good recovery once again.

So did Hillery.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, -1.

In range.  The Strongly Disapprove number pulled back a bit.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +2.

Disapprove 54%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

In range. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -3.

In range, but very close to the upper edge of good range for Obama.

[J. J.]

His numbers always gets better on the weekend

Actually there does not seem to be a huge correlation between the two. 

On top of this, these numbers are from Wednesday through Friday.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, u.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

Disapprove and Strongly Disapprove are at the very low edge of range.

[J. J.]

Gallup: 43/49

ting.

I'm not a fan of Gallup's tracking poll, but the numbers are within three points of the 'bots.

[J. J.]

Huh?  Gallup is pretty solid but it wouldn't be overly harsh of Obama.

If anything, Gallup is overly favorable for Obama.

I am not too thrilled about Gallup's tracking poll accuracy.  Whether or not overly favorable, that doesn't change my opinion of the accuracy.  I just don't trust Gallup's tracking poll as much as I do Rasmussen, in terms of longer term treads.

I use Gallup to compare different presidents over the years.