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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015350 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #3275 on: December 21, 2009, 03:22:17 pm »


First poll ever from North Dakota, as I understand:



"Likely voters", whatever that means, and approval. I suspect that the demographics of North Dakota are much like those of South Dakota.  It's again amazing that Obama got 46% of the vote in North Dakota in 2008.

One pattern that I noticed in a county-by-county analysis of voting in the 2008 Presidential election (the New York Times' Election Tool) was that Obama's vote corresponded more closely to population density than some of the usual determiners of recent decades,  like income and education that used to correspond closely to Republican votes. Poor blacks, Latinos, and Native Americans voted heavily for Obama, to be sure, but poor whites voted heavily for McCain -- more heavily than non-poor white people.

The connection: that the higher the population density, the more heavily people depend upon high-priced government services. Public expenditures on personal education are higher  on people near the top of the social apex (that includes college graduates, many of whom attend State universities), and they concentrate heavily in high-density areas; they also want, and are likely to get, their kids to attend public universities. Education costs more because schoolteachers' salaries must compete with private industry, which is not a problem where the alternative is to work more hours on the family farm. Law enforcement salaries are higher because the bribes of gangsters are far higher in urban areas.  The highways that suburban commuters use are more expensive to build (consider land acquisition as well as costs of bridges, overpasses, relocation of utilities, litigation, and lanes) than the two-lane blacktops wholly adequate in most of rural America. Highways like I-29, I-90, and I-94 in those states were more cheaply built than is, for example, I-95 in Pennsylvania (it goes through Philadelphia) or southern Florida (very urban). The three freeways in the Dakotas serve places outside the Dakotas as destinations.  An eight-lane expressway might be wholly inadequate in parts of New Jersey, but it would be ludicrous anywhere in the Dakotas or Montana.

But look at the large urban areas closest to the Dakotas: the Twin Cities, Denver, Des Moines, and Omaha. Obama won all of them. They have more in common with Chicago than with rural areas in the Dakotas or Nebraska. Even Lincoln, Nebraska went for Obama.

Urbanites and suburbanites need Big Government; rural America has little use or need for it.

That can't be right, Rowan. I was told Obama will win fi-con states like ND and Texas.
   

Obama wins the Dakotas if the GOP puts up someone completely wrong for the two states. Such is possible. Election 2012 is unlikely to depend on either or both of the Dakotas. Obama doesn't need Texas, but that's a different story altogether.

Nate Silver says that if one adds 4% to 5% to the approval rating among likely voters one gets a good estimate of the vote nationwide. He didn't say statewide, but that seems a reasonable approximation. Add 5% to Obama's current approval rating in North Dakota and you get the election result of November 2008.


That can't be right, Rowan. I was told Obama will win fi-con states like ND and Texas.

The poll clearly doesn't include the Age Wave.


Neither of the Dakotas is close enough for the Age Wave alone to decide Election 2012. Besides, the youngest voters in both states voted about 50-50 for Obama, which would make a flip of either state impossible without a major inroad into older populations. The states can vote for Democratic members of the House and Senate on occasion.

Missouri and Montana are the only states in which Obama could flip from 2008 losses simply on the Age Wave.  Any other Obama gains will depend on shifts of votes elsewhere.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3276 on: December 22, 2009, 03:45:17 pm »

Colorado(Public Opinion Strategies)

Approve 43%
Disapprove 51%

https://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0BzLEv8CSM220MzEyNzlkMWMtZmI3NC00ZDU5LWJlYTYtYmY4NTY0OTIyOTE5&hl=en
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3277 on: December 22, 2009, 05:35:24 pm »
« Edited: December 23, 2009, 01:54:39 am by pbrower2a »





Great day for the Hard Right! The GOP strategy is working!
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GLPman
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« Reply #3278 on: December 22, 2009, 05:36:49 pm »


Change Colorado to yellow.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #3279 on: December 22, 2009, 05:45:57 pm »

Someone credible and objective needs to start making a map, this guy is just unbelievable.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #3280 on: December 22, 2009, 06:16:35 pm »
« Edited: December 22, 2009, 06:18:23 pm by Paulisdabest »

Someone credible and objective needs to start making a map, this guy is just unbelievable.

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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3281 on: December 22, 2009, 06:31:44 pm »

pbrower, are you seriously not going to change CO because you don't like that poll?
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Rowan
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« Reply #3282 on: December 22, 2009, 06:35:02 pm »

Does anyone want me to start making a map?

A few rules I would follow:

1. All polls must be approval, not favorability

2. No Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor polls

3. No internal polls
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #3283 on: December 22, 2009, 06:36:03 pm »

pbrower, are you seriously not going to change CO because you don't like that poll?

1. No black people were interviewed

2. No gay people were interviewed

3. I love Obama, so screw you
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3284 on: December 22, 2009, 06:39:04 pm »

Does anyone want me to start making a map?

A few rules I would follow:

1. All polls must be approval, not favorability

2. No Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor polls

3. No internal polls

Sounds good to me, although I'd ask you to bring back the traditional forum standard of green=approve, red=disapprove.  I think we're mostly intelligent enough to differentiate that from Democratic red.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #3285 on: December 22, 2009, 06:42:59 pm »

Can you imagine what Pbrower will be like during the campaign....?
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Farage
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« Reply #3286 on: December 22, 2009, 06:46:14 pm »

Does anyone want me to start making a map?

A few rules I would follow:

1. All polls must be approval, not favorability

2. No Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor polls

3. No internal polls
yeah and add the new nevada poll http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nv_ratings_wfi_121215.php
pbrower you're laid off ... Wink
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3287 on: December 22, 2009, 07:06:17 pm »

I'm giving pbrower the benefit of the doubt, but he might have forgot to change it on the map, or changed the wrong item unintentionally.

Again, I'm relatively new here, so let's give him a little bit, and see if he changes it in response. 
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #3288 on: December 22, 2009, 07:09:13 pm »

I'm giving pbrower the benefit of the doubt, but he might have forgot to change it on the map, or changed the wrong item unintentionally.

Again, I'm relatively new here, so let's give him a little bit, and see if he changes it in response. 
We've given him almost a year. Trust me, my friend, he is a Democrat hack, who is convinved Obama will easily win re-electio because of the "Age Wave".
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #3289 on: December 22, 2009, 07:36:08 pm »
« Edited: December 22, 2009, 07:37:51 pm by ShadowOfTheWave »

I still can't believe someone with even the smallest insight into basic politics would include favorability in with approval. And no, he does not deserve to be given the benefit of the doubt, he has proven time and again he only uses the results he likes.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #3290 on: December 22, 2009, 08:05:36 pm »

Thanks for stepping up to the plate, maybe we can finally have an objective map!
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Rowan
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« Reply #3291 on: December 22, 2009, 08:13:49 pm »

The new map starts today. I'm not going to differentiate between whether he is at 51% or 65% approval. Green is if he is over 50% approval, and red is if he is under 50% approval. It might take me a bit to go back and find the last legitimate polls for each state, so bear with me(if you want to help to, that would be great).
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5280
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« Reply #3292 on: December 22, 2009, 08:16:38 pm »

Fixed it...
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3293 on: December 22, 2009, 08:47:30 pm »
« Edited: December 22, 2009, 08:56:24 pm by RowanBrandon »

Okay guys, how's this? I tried to go back and find the polls. I am almost 100% sure there was a Georgia poll somewhere but I must have missed it going back, so if someone could bring it up that would be great. Also, if you know any of the other states that I have as gray on this map, that would be great as well. Also, if you feel like I have made any mistakes on the states please let me know. I want this as accurate as possible.

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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3294 on: December 22, 2009, 08:52:07 pm »

Great job, Rowan.  Any chance of shading?  Smiley
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3295 on: December 22, 2009, 09:03:26 pm »

Obama is at 60% in only one state(MD), so it is dark green. He is at 60% disapproval in some states, so they are dark red.

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GLPman
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« Reply #3296 on: December 22, 2009, 09:07:53 pm »

Obama is at 60% in only one state(MD), so it is dark green. He is at 60% disapproval in some states, so they are dark red.



Looks great so far. I'm glad somebody finally did this the right way.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3297 on: December 22, 2009, 09:40:48 pm »

Obama is at 60% in only one state(MD), so it is dark green. He is at 60% disapproval in some states, so they are dark red.



Looks great so far. I'm glad somebody finally did this the right way.

Agreed.  The colors make sense, and the shading makes sense.  Could you perhaps put a number for the month it came out in (12 for December, 1 for January, etc.)?  Thanks.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3298 on: December 22, 2009, 09:58:42 pm »

How do I do that?
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3299 on: December 22, 2009, 09:59:18 pm »


Just alter the electoral vote numbers in the code.
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