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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016112 times)
Devilman88
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« Reply #3300 on: December 22, 2009, 10:14:54 pm »

Great Job RB!
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3301 on: December 22, 2009, 10:43:20 pm »
« Edited: December 25, 2009, 12:11:17 pm by RowanBrandon »

I can't get Maine and Nebraska to not show up. The rest are all good though.



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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #3302 on: December 22, 2009, 11:14:02 pm »

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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3303 on: December 22, 2009, 11:20:09 pm »

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #3304 on: December 22, 2009, 11:28:23 pm »

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Lahbas
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« Reply #3305 on: December 22, 2009, 11:53:24 pm »

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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #3306 on: December 22, 2009, 11:56:17 pm »

Didn't realize how much sense this makes with the red and green.  It's almost Christmas and it's perfect. We'll go with this color scheme instead!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3307 on: December 23, 2009, 01:15:49 am »

I prefer the Yellow for negative states, Red just doesn`t seem to fit.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3308 on: December 23, 2009, 01:57:45 am »

Does anyone want me to start making a map?

A few rules I would follow:

1. All polls must be approval, not favorability

2. No Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor polls

3. No internal polls
yeah and add the new nevada poll http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nv_ratings_wfi_121215.php
pbrower you're laid off ... Wink

Special interest group.  Disqualified!
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Farage
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« Reply #3309 on: December 23, 2009, 06:03:46 am »

Does anyone want me to start making a map?

A few rules I would follow:

1. All polls must be approval, not favorability

2. No Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor polls

3. No internal polls
yeah and add the new nevada poll http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nv_ratings_wfi_121215.php
pbrower you're laid off ... Wink

Special interest group.  Disqualified!
like you always say ... a poll is a poll after all ... Wink
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3310 on: December 23, 2009, 06:08:27 am »

I prefer the Yellow for negative states, Red just doesn`t seem to fit.

Red and green is the way it's always been done for approval and referenda maps.  Just like the red-blue scheme that the Atlas has always used, it makes far more sense this way.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3311 on: December 23, 2009, 06:12:28 am »

I can't get Maine and Nebraska to not show up. The rest are all good though.

Here you go:


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Rowan
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« Reply #3312 on: December 23, 2009, 08:37:17 am »
« Edited: December 23, 2009, 09:35:13 am by RowanBrandon »

Gracias, Smiley.

What did you do to the code to get it like that?
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3313 on: December 23, 2009, 09:50:11 am »

Gracias, Smiley.

What did you do to the code to get it like that?

I changed the '2008' near the beginning of the code to '1964'; one of only two election years (the other being 1968, which works the same way) in which D.C. appears, and Maine's districts don't show up.  (They started using their system from 1972 onwards.)
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3314 on: December 23, 2009, 10:21:53 am »

Kentucky(PPP)

Approve 35%
Disapprove 59%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_KY_1223.pdf

No change to the map, essentially the same as the SUSA poll.
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RIP Robert H Bork
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« Reply #3315 on: December 23, 2009, 11:10:52 am »

Gracias, Smiley.

What did you do to the code to get it like that?

I changed the '2008' near the beginning of the code to '1964'; one of only two election years (the other being 1968, which works the same way) in which D.C. appears, and Maine's districts don't show up.  (They started using their system from 1972 onwards.)

That is exactly what I do as well. Not bad.
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Umengus
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« Reply #3316 on: December 23, 2009, 12:06:22 pm »

Does anyone want me to start making a map?

A few rules I would follow:

1. All polls must be approval, not favorability

2. No Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor polls

3. No internal polls


In theory, you should not mix adult, RV and LV voters polls but I know that it's impossible due to the weak number of polls. 
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3317 on: December 23, 2009, 12:42:22 pm »

Does anyone want me to start making a map?

A few rules I would follow:

1. All polls must be approval, not favorability

2. No Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor polls

3. No internal polls


In theory, you should not mix adult, RV and LV voters polls but I know that it's impossible due to the weak number of polls. 

I would definitely agree, but like you said, there simply aren't enough polls to do this.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3318 on: December 23, 2009, 12:44:39 pm »

Polls sometimes have separate sets of numbers for RVs and LVs though, so you could institute some consistent policy for picking one over the other if a poll has both.
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Zarn
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« Reply #3319 on: December 23, 2009, 12:49:56 pm »

Three separate maps would be a stretch.

I prefer LV to RV. I don't like adult polling at all. It makes no sense to me, but I know that is just my cup of tea.

In conclusion, average them out. Do the same if you have a state recently polled by multiple pollsters.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3320 on: December 23, 2009, 12:55:38 pm »

If both LV's and RV's are over 50%(or under 50%), the map doesn't make a difference anyway. If there is a discrepancy(one over 50%, one under 50%), I would probably just take the average of the two.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3321 on: December 23, 2009, 12:58:46 pm »

Great job, Rowan.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3322 on: December 23, 2009, 05:32:09 pm »
« Edited: December 23, 2009, 06:22:45 pm by pbrower2a »

I'm giving pbrower the benefit of the doubt, but he might have forgot to change it on the map, or changed the wrong item unintentionally.I

Again, I'm relatively new here, so let's give him a little bit, and see if he changes it in response.  
We've given him almost a year. Trust me, my friend, he is a Democrat hack, who is convinved Obama will easily win re-electio because of the "Age Wave".

It was my goof. I have changed it.




...

As for the Age Wave -- it's more limited than you think. It is little more than the tendency for current voters under 30 to vote more heavily D than the rest of America. Such was true in 2008 -- but not in the 1980s and 1990s, when the youngest voters were more conservative than any voters born since 1900. It's enough to shape elections but not enough to prevent a defeat of Obama in his bid for re-election in 2012 should he prove incompetent or corrup.

In 2012 that age group will expand to 18-34, and older voting groups will shrink due to the usual causes (deaths and senescence, especially to the old) and if nothing changes in voting patterns by age, Obama will pick up everything that he won in 2008 and add Missouri and Montana. That is a very slight change compared to any patterns that states might display -- such as a tendency to vote against or vote for incumbents, development or degeneration of statewide Party apparatuses for Parties (either way), Obama's personal campaigning or lack thereof, and either disappointment of constituencies of Obama voters of 2008 or the willingness of those who voted against him in 2008 to be satisfied with him to their surprise in 2012.  Some state will be associated with Republican nominees for President and Vice-President, and that will be a bigger factor in individual states.

The Age Wave hurt Democratic Presidential candidates at least as late as 2000. Then the 19-30 age group was almost entirely the so-called Generation X that has been much more conservative than the current young adults. The age wave of the time may have been enough to keep Florida and New Hampshire from going for Al Gore in 2000; either would have been enough to give Al Gore the indelible number '43' The voters of 2008  between 18 and 26 then were aged 14 through 26 in 2004, but people under 18 don't vote. It wouldn't have taken much for Kerry to win Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio -- and the Presidency; the electorate of 2008 would have won it for Kerry even with a weak candidacy.  

The Election of 2012 will depend upon stories much larger than any Age Wave -- like whether Obama is an effective or ineffective President, the absence or presence of strong GOP nominees in 2012, the attraction of constituencies that voted against Obama in 2008 or the defection of some who voted for him in 2008. "The economy" will be a large part of the picture.

......

Although there will be polls announced during the Holiday season I hardly expect many to be taken during it. Other than polls through mid-December and national tracking polls  I expect few new ones until perhaps the second week of January. They will be marked by the letter "A" -- not "M". President Obama has expended much political capital into the legislation that he sought to showcase, and he has a legislative success to show for it. Some will call it one of the most welcome pieces of legislation in American history; some will consider it an unmitigated disaster.  Once the legislation is passed, those who have opposed it are unlikely to keep protesting it; they will have other concerns.

I am in no position to predict how the completion of the process of enacting a health0care reform will affect the President's approval ratings. Legislative success is better for one's political career than is legislative failure.


I am sticking to my color scheme, but if you want another one as a rival, then by all means stick with it.  I may tend toward approval polls, but I will accept RV when "likely voters" is not availability.  Who knows now who the "likely voters" of 2012 will be in the Presidential election?

 
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3323 on: December 23, 2009, 05:39:57 pm »

I love how pbrower is trying to cover his tracks now.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #3324 on: December 23, 2009, 06:49:03 pm »


As for the Age Wave -- it's more limited than you think.

What? Pbrower, you are the only person crazy about the Age Wave. I think it's a load of crap, as do most people with a working brain.
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