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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1016028 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #3325 on: December 23, 2009, 09:05:27 pm »

I love how pbrower is trying to cover his tracks now.

I try to stay consistent. Unbiased? Impossible! Anyone without bias would stay clear of this board.


As for the Age Wave -- it's more limited than you think.

What? Pbrower, you are the only person crazy about the Age Wave. I think it's a load of crap, as do most people with a working brain.

I discussed it a few times, recognized its limitations, and that it is slighter than almost everything else. If you don't want me to discuss it when other things are more significant at the time, then don't bring it up?
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #3326 on: December 23, 2009, 11:31:18 pm »

Sorry pbrower, you've been replaced.
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GLPman
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« Reply #3327 on: December 23, 2009, 11:42:05 pm »

Sorry pbrower, you've been replaced.
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #3328 on: December 23, 2009, 11:47:17 pm »

Pbrower, you're trying too hard.  Your time is up, give the job to some young blood!
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Biden If Buttigieg
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #3329 on: December 24, 2009, 12:25:17 am »

He is completely in denial about being fired, it's best to just leave him alone for now.
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The Duke
JohnD.Ford
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« Reply #3330 on: December 24, 2009, 01:16:49 am »

He is completely in denial about being fired, it's best to just leave him alone for now.

What if he wants his stapler back?

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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #3331 on: December 24, 2009, 01:19:50 am »

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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3332 on: December 24, 2009, 01:52:55 pm »

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Beet
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« Reply #3333 on: December 24, 2009, 02:28:36 pm »

Is there any chance the shading could be made more dramatic-- especially since there are only 2 or 3 shades max? It's hard to see the difference currently.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3334 on: December 24, 2009, 02:34:01 pm »

Is there any chance the shading could be made more dramatic-- especially since there are only 2 or 3 shades max? It's hard to see the difference currently.

I was thinking about that. Maybe something like a different shade for 55% or 60%?
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Beet
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« Reply #3335 on: December 24, 2009, 02:45:47 pm »

Is there any chance the shading could be made more dramatic-- especially since there are only 2 or 3 shades max? It's hard to see the difference currently.

I was thinking about that. Maybe something like a different shade for 55% or 60%?

That could work as well-- I was thinking of just more dramatic shades. The problem is the more granular you want to be, the less room you have to make the colors different from one another.
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Zarn
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« Reply #3336 on: December 24, 2009, 03:18:23 pm »

<40% with Disapproval Higher: 90% Red
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 60% Red
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Red
50% or <50% with Approval Higher or Equal: Yellow
51-55%: 30% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 90% Dark Green

Just throwing it out there. Don't worry about my feelings. Haha.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3337 on: December 24, 2009, 06:04:34 pm »
« Edited: December 24, 2009, 07:52:38 pm by pbrower2a »

<40% with Disapproval Higher: 90% Red
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 60% Red
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Red
50% or <50% with Approval Higher or Equal: Yellow
51-55%: 30% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 90% Dark Green

Just throwing it out there. Don't worry about my feelings. Haha.

That's a good one, although I prefer yellow and green, with white for a tie. The "dark yellows" would become beige and tan. 10% yellow comes off as white.

Here's my proposal:
<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

50%  Approval Equal: 20% Green
51-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval). Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no poll within the last 180 days.

No push polls or polls from a political party or special interest (ethnic advocacy, union, gun-rights, pro-life or pro-choice, gay rights, religious group, advocates of specific legislation) should be accepted). College polls are OK.

Colors from over 180 days may be maintained only if the poll is reasonable (corroboration in other states with similar political histories or the previous election) without ambiguity. Ambiguity -- it goes gray.

  
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #3338 on: December 24, 2009, 06:07:06 pm »

<40% with Disapproval Higher: 90% Red
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 60% Red
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Red
50% or <50% with Approval Higher or Equal: Yellow
51-55%: 30% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 90% Dark Green

Just throwing it out there. Don't worry about my feelings. Haha.
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tmthforu94
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P P P
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« Reply #3339 on: December 24, 2009, 06:08:18 pm »

<40% with Disapproval Higher: 90% Red
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 60% Red
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Red
50% or <50% with Approval Higher or Equal: Yellow
51-55%: 30% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 90% Dark Green

Just throwing it out there. Don't worry about my feelings. Haha.
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #3340 on: December 24, 2009, 06:24:38 pm »
« Edited: December 24, 2009, 06:30:30 pm by MagneticFree »

So according to all the polls gathered up, the modified Obama approval/disapproval should look something like this.


Red for dissapproval higher than approval from 30%-90%
Green for approval higher than disapproval from 30%-90%

Yellow - Tied approval & disapproval

30% - light shade
60% - medium shade
90% - dark shade

The numbers added in are the month the poll was taken.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #3341 on: December 24, 2009, 07:26:39 pm »

So according to all the polls gathered up, the modified Obama approval/disapproval should look something like this.


Red for dissapproval higher than approval from 30%-90%
Green for approval higher than disapproval from 30%-90%

Yellow - Tied approval & disapproval

30% - light shade
60% - medium shade
90% - dark shade

The numbers added in are the month the poll was taken.

Net dissapproval in Maryland, DC, and Delaware?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3342 on: December 24, 2009, 08:02:20 pm »
« Edited: December 24, 2009, 08:06:38 pm by pbrower2a »

So according to all the polls gathered up, the modified Obama approval/disapproval should look something like this.


Red for dissapproval higher than approval from 30%-90%
Green for approval higher than disapproval from 30%-90%

Yellow - Tied approval & disapproval

30% - light shade
60% - medium shade
90% - dark shade

The numbers added in are the month the poll was taken.

Net dissapproval in Maryland, DC, and Delaware?

Fixed. Alaska and DC have never been polled, and NE-02 voted very differently from the rest of Nebraska, NE-02  most recently (but more than six months ago) showing a net positive rating for Obama.
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3343 on: December 24, 2009, 08:18:47 pm »
« Edited: December 24, 2009, 08:27:07 pm by RowanBrandon »

This thread has turned into a giant clusterfock.
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #3344 on: December 24, 2009, 08:23:25 pm »

Pbrower, why use letters for the months?  Just use numbers like normal people do when looking at the date.

January - 1
February - 2
March - 3
April - 4
May - 5
June - 6
July - 7
August - 8
September - 9
October - 10
November - 11
December - 12
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3345 on: December 24, 2009, 08:30:53 pm »

Look, let's just leave it to RowanBrandon.  He knows what he's doing.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3346 on: December 24, 2009, 09:15:21 pm »

Pbrower, why use letters for the months?  Just use numbers like normal people do when looking at the date.

January - 1
February - 2
March - 3
April - 4
May - 5
June - 6
July - 7
August - 8
September - 9
October - 10
November - 11
December - 12

Because

1. It is easier to put a letter on a state with little area than it is to put a two-digit number. New England gets crowded, Delaware is hard to see, and boxes for the congressional districts of Nebraska could be interesting. That won't matter again until October. after 2008 polls become irrelevant.

2. Numbers could suggest electoral votes and confuse people. Letters shouldn't be so hard to figure out, especially if I occasionally post the key.

3. Someone suggested that numbers would cause trouble if I tried to use numbers that would not be confused with electoral votes  (then it was "Add 70 to the number of the month") and I still had problems with the format -- problems that others insist that I change.

4. I would have to explain "S" and "Z" if everything else was a number. If someone transmits an approval poll with a transposition error, then do you think I want to show that it is an error?

5. I am slow to tweak my methods.

....

Because of the health-care legislation I may be tempted to start over if the national tracking polls for approval take a shift.  That legislation is quite possibly the most significant legislation since the Civil Rights Act of 1964 or Medicare (take your pick), and I suspect that a huge legislative success for the President and his Party will change the public opinion of both. Whether the legislation is right or wrong is of course a matter of taste. Success has many would-be fathers; failure is an orphan. Add to that the rancor over the legislative process comes to an end. The Tea Party protests will likely continue, but they won't be over health-care reform. 

After this bill, others are likely to seem either obvious or petty by contrast.   

 
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3347 on: December 24, 2009, 10:33:09 pm »

Pbrower, why use letters for the months?  Just use numbers like normal people do when looking at the date.

January - 1
February - 2
March - 3
April - 4
May - 5
June - 6
July - 7
August - 8
September - 9
October - 10
November - 11
December - 12



That legislation is quite possibly the most significant legislation since the Civil Rights Act of 1964 or Medicare (take your pick), and I suspect that a huge legislative success for the President and his Party will change the public opinion of both.

 

I think it's fair that you believe that, but let me be the first to disagree.  Legislatively, this is a success, sure.  However, in what public opinion poll is this health reform bill popular?  A recent CNN Poll had the opposition at 61%, and I haven't seen any polls in the last few months showing over 50% favorability of this plan.  If you could direct me to a few, I will gladly eat crow, I just don't believe that there are many.

Given that the vast majority of the poor and uninsured, already are on record as approving of the President and this plan (because it will positively affect them and their financial state directly), it would take a majority of at least 55% to make a significant bump in the President's approval rating. Also, in my opinion, any bump will be temporary, because this legislation won't affect that many people, unless it is determined that people's health care plans will be taxed. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3348 on: December 24, 2009, 11:22:44 pm »


That legislation is quite possibly the most significant legislation since the Civil Rights Act of 1964 or Medicare (take your pick), and I suspect that a huge legislative success for the President and his Party will change the public opinion of both.

 

I think it's fair that you believe that, but let me be the first to disagree.  Legislatively, this is a success, sure.  However, in what public opinion poll is this health reform bill popular?  A recent CNN Poll had the opposition at 61%, and I haven't seen any polls in the last few months showing over 50% favorability of this plan.  If you could direct me to a few, I will gladly eat crow, I just don't believe that there are many.

There has been a well-organized, loud counter-campaign against the legislation. That is over. What remains to be seen is whether the legislation is reasonable or full of folly.

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Ironically, the 2008 election had the slightest link between income and voting in years. The poor of all kinds used to be reliable voters  for the Democratic Party; such remained so for Hispanics, blacks, and native Americans -- but not whites. Poor whites voted heavily for John McCain. I recall that such rich counties as Loudoun (Virginia), Westchester (New York), and Marin (California) voted for Obama. Some of the poorest counties in America -- those lily-white poor counties in southeastern Kentucky -- voted resolutely for John McCain.  McCain did not promise to increase welfare payments or offer any similar enticements. Go figure!
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Rowan
RowanBrandon
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« Reply #3349 on: December 25, 2009, 03:21:11 pm »

How is this guys?



30-39%- Dark Dark Red
40-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% but Approval is higher than Disapproval- Pink
50-54%- Light Green
55-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Let me know if you guys have any suggestions.
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