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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1015356 times)
Umengus
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« Reply #3475 on: January 08, 2010, 09:41:54 am »



PPP agrees with Rasmussen. A proof that ras is good.
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Rowan
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« Reply #3476 on: January 08, 2010, 10:31:29 am »

Kentucky(Rasmussen)

Approve 41%
Disapprove 59%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2010_kentucky_senate

Kentucky gets a little lighter. Improvement from the SUSA poll.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3477 on: January 08, 2010, 12:03:10 pm »
« Edited: January 08, 2010, 12:54:41 pm by pbrower2a »

A state which Obama is unlikely to win (Kentucky) unless in a 450+ EV blowout show marginal improvements for approval; Connecticut shows an average and a marginal improvement. In no case does the color change mean much:



The decline in approval ratings for President Obama seems to have abated.

North Dakota had a "favorability" poll which does not count.

Does anyone still think the most recent New Hampshire poll anything other than "suspect, spurious, strange, or screwy"?  

 
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Rowan
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« Reply #3478 on: January 08, 2010, 12:05:59 pm »

Just an FYI for everyone, I'm not putting the ND one on my map because it measures favorability and not approval.
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change08
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« Reply #3479 on: January 08, 2010, 02:36:16 pm »

Just an FYI for everyone, I'm not putting the ND one on my map because it measures favorability and not approval.

Good judgement. Favourability ≠ Approval
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GLPman
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« Reply #3480 on: January 08, 2010, 02:44:25 pm »
« Edited: January 08, 2010, 07:42:29 pm by GLPman »

Just an FYI for everyone, I'm not putting the ND one on my map because it measures favorability and not approval.

Good judgement. Favourability ≠ Approval
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Biden If Buttigieg
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #3481 on: January 08, 2010, 04:12:54 pm »

Favorability should never be included in a map measuring approval. There shouldn't even be a debate about this.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3482 on: January 09, 2010, 01:22:07 pm »

What?  Obama's approval rating is lower than his favorable rating, so his favorable rating is probably giving Obama the best case scenario.  His approval rating is likely 1-2 points lower.

In any event, Mason-Dixon shows his favorable rating in Nevada to be at 34/46.
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #3483 on: January 09, 2010, 01:30:20 pm »

In any event, Mason-Dixon shows his favorable rating in Nevada to be at 34/46.

http://www.lvrj.com/news/reid-hits-new-low-in-poll-81060702.html

^That's the poll he pulled those numbers from, though I normally don't agree with using favorables and approvals interchangeably.
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Vepres
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« Reply #3484 on: January 09, 2010, 01:46:15 pm »


Huh, looks sort of like 2004, no?
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3485 on: January 09, 2010, 02:36:03 pm »

In any event, Obama is in horrible shape in Nevada if the Mason-Dixon numbers are correct unless you believe his approval rating is higher than his favorable rating in the state.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3486 on: January 09, 2010, 08:56:34 pm »

In any event, Mason-Dixon shows his favorable rating in Nevada to be at 34/46.

http://www.lvrj.com/news/reid-hits-new-low-in-poll-81060702.html

^That's the poll he pulled those numbers from, though I normally don't agree with using favorables and approvals interchangeably.

I'm tempted to reject any poll that has more than 10% undecided, whether favorability or approval, unless other polls are similar. 34+46 = 80.  Think about it: 46% disapproval is a very good position if there are few undecided.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3487 on: January 09, 2010, 10:21:48 pm »


2000 and 2004 looked much alike, with only three states switching (IA, NH, NM) and lots of questions on one state with a large number of electoral votes seeming to make the difference.  Paradoxically, Gore would have won election in 2000 had he won New Hampshire, but that would not have been good enough in 2004 due to the reapportionment of electoral votes.

What we saw in 2000 and 2004 was the solidity of the Blue Firewall, but Democratic nominees unable to win outside of it. 
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #3488 on: January 09, 2010, 11:35:56 pm »

Pbrower, 46% unfavorables with 20% undecided is not good news.  80% of the undecideds would have to view him favorably for him to break even.

However, I'll grant you that it's likely that the undecideds overwhelminly have a favorable opinion of him, probably by a 2-to-1 margin and that gets you to around a 47/52 favorable/unfavorable in a state where he won 55% of the vote.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3489 on: January 10, 2010, 06:28:00 am »

Oklahoma (Tulsa World/Sooner Poll)Sad

36% Approve
58% Disapprove

The approval rating for President Barack Obama, on the other hand, stood at 36 percent, 2 points lower than for George W. Bush just ahead of the 2008 election and the lowest for a U.S. chief executive since the Oklahoma Poll began gathering approval ratings in 1993.

A majority of Democrats remained loyal to Obama, but Republicans opposed him by a margin of 8-to-1. Similarly, Obama enjoyed considerable support from liberals and even moderates while 80 percent of conservatives rated him unfavorably.

(Gov. Henry)

67% Approve
23% Disapprove

(Sen. Inhofe)

61% Approve
29% Disapprove

(Sen. Coburn)

65% Approve
26% Disapprove

SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific telephone survey Jan. 2-5 of 621 likely voters registered in the state. The poll includes 325 Democrats, 267 republicans, 28 independents and one Libertarian.

The margin of error is plus or minus 3.93 percentage points except on the questions concerning the primary elections. The poll is sponsored by the Tulsa World.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=12&articleid=20100110_16_A4_GovBra279379
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3490 on: January 10, 2010, 09:11:53 am »

Oklahoma (Tulsa World/Sooner Poll)Sad

36% Approve
58% Disapprove


(Sen. Inhofe)

61% Approve
29% Disapprove

(Sen. Coburn)

65% Approve
26% Disapprove


Oklahoma is one of the most right-wing states in the US, as its two Senators exemplify. Both Imhofe and Coburn would be in political danger states appreciably more moderate (let us say Indiana, North Carolina, or North Dakota).




Oklahoma Democrats strongly approve of the President, but that isn't enough. There just aren't enough Democrats to make Oklahoma competitive for a Democrat except under freakish circumstances.
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Franzl
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« Reply #3491 on: January 10, 2010, 09:18:12 am »

As far as I'm informed, there are more Democrats than Republicans in Oklahoma.

Pay attention to the approval margins among Democrats and Republicans, that's a lot more important.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3492 on: January 10, 2010, 10:32:05 am »

As far as I'm informed, there are more Democrats than Republicans in Oklahoma.

Pay attention to the approval margins among Democrats and Republicans, that's a lot more important.

I saw the sample sizes for people of different affiliations. One can create a valid poll out of a distorted sample if one norms the sample. If one gets 325 Democrats, 267 Republicans, 28 independents, and 1 libertarian the pollster might have decided after calling 250 Republicans who went 8-1 against Obama to quit calling Republicans because further calls would be superfluous. Does Oklahoma have that many Democrats or that few independents, or even so few libertarians? No way is Oklahoma so politically divided as to have 54.8% of its voters as registered Democrats. If I were guessing, I'd figure that 60% at the least of all Oklahoma voters are registered Republicans.

Maybe the pollster needs a larger sample size among Democrats to get a good feel for how Democrats approve and disapprove of Obama and then norms the statewide result on the lines of partisan affiliation of voters.  The state hasn't voted for the Democratic nominee for President since 1964, and got close only in 1976. The state last voted out a Democratic Senator in 1996.

Oklahoma voted  roughly 65-34 McCain over Obama, which is about how it voted in 2004, 60-40 Bush over Gore, 58-41 Bush over Dukakis (1992 and 1996 had a third-party candidate), Reagan 68-30 over Mondale and 60-34 over Carter...

So if 7% of Obama's 36% approval comes from Republicans (60% of the electorate, at the least), the other 29% comes from Democrats and independents.  That would mean that Obama would have about 72% approval among Democrats and independents in Oklahoma. Not great, but I suppose that Oklahoma Democrats are a conservative lot. Getting 72% approval from Democrats in such a state as Pennsylvania would not be enough to win there.
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Franzl
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« Reply #3493 on: January 10, 2010, 10:39:38 am »

Incorrect, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in Oklahoma.

http://www.ok.gov/~elections/reg_0109.pdf
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Rowan
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« Reply #3494 on: January 10, 2010, 11:13:26 am »

As far as I'm informed, there are more Democrats than Republicans in Oklahoma.

Pay attention to the approval margins among Democrats and Republicans, that's a lot more important.

I saw the sample sizes for people of different affiliations. One can create a valid poll out of a distorted sample if one norms the sample. If one gets 325 Democrats, 267 Republicans, 28 independents, and 1 libertarian the pollster might have decided after calling 250 Republicans who went 8-1 against Obama to quit calling Republicans because further calls would be superfluous. Does Oklahoma have that many Democrats or that few independents, or even so few libertarians? No way is Oklahoma so politically divided as to have 54.8% of its voters as registered Democrats. If I were guessing, I'd figure that 60% at the least of all Oklahoma voters are registered Republicans.

Quit guessing and stick to facts. There are more Democrats than Republicans in Oklahoma.
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« Reply #3495 on: January 10, 2010, 11:31:13 am »

From yesterday's PPP MA-Senate poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 43%
Not Sure.......................................................... 13%

Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Support ........................................................... 41%
Oppose ........................................................... 47%
No Opinion...................................................... 12%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_45398436.pdf

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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3496 on: January 10, 2010, 11:43:37 am »

From yesterday's PPP MA-Senate poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 43%
Not Sure.......................................................... 13%

That kind of calls into question the accuracy of the Senate poll Tongue
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Rowan
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« Reply #3497 on: January 10, 2010, 11:55:20 am »

Oklahoma updated.

Not including the MA poll considering it's a special election with strange turnout.

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Franzl
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« Reply #3498 on: January 10, 2010, 12:05:07 pm »

What will pbrower's comment about the party registration figures look like? Because they vote like Republicans they're de facto Republicans, and thus his estimate was correct?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #3499 on: January 10, 2010, 12:54:48 pm »
« Edited: January 10, 2010, 01:03:20 pm by Senator North Carolina Yankee, PPT »

Don't know about party registratio but the final exit polling of some the late polls in 2008 like SurveyUSA had McCain winning +40% of OK Dems.
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