The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

One thing to look at is Obama's negative numbers here:  http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm

It is running well ahead of either Carter's or Reagan's at the same point in time.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

Strongly Disapprove out of range.  Either a good Obama sample or some strengthening of Obama.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

Edir:  Strongly Disapprove is corrected.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

It look like the shift toward Obama is there.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

If this happens, any idea why?

His address to the nation on the withdraw from Iraq happens tonight. Which is probably going to change this numbers for the better.

Edu, I have no idea why.

Those numbers were gathered basically, before the speech, so that can be ruled out.

[J. J.]

46% in Alaska from Rass, 44% from PPP and 40% from the NSRC pollster.

Incredible.

Maybe not; these all might be in MOE.

[J. J.]

46% in Alaska from Rass, 44% from PPP and 40% from the NSRC pollster.

Incredible.

Maybe not; these all might be in MOE.

Obama got only 37.9% of the vote in Alaska, and it's hard to believe that the VP choice is worth more than about 4%.  Kerry got 35.5% of the vote there in 2004; Gore got 27.7% of the vote there in 2000 (but Ralph Nader got 10% of the vote),  so Alaska seems to be drifting D if recent polls are correct -- including the 40% approval. With respect to the rest of America?

Alaska has a large military presence, and the effects of the graceful pull-out of US combat forces in Iraq might have an effect analogous to what I recently saw in Georgia. Short of saying that the three polls have huge sampling errors, the most favorable view that the Alaska polls show toward the GOP is that the state itself is running contrary to the political norm. Otherwise this Rasmussen poll portends a disaster for the GOP.

I might interpret it as Obama appealing to more local issues.  Energy possibly?

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

I'd still call it a shift to Obama, though not a huge one.  Unless there is big jump against him tomorrow, it is there.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

[J. J.]

Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 55%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

While there is a bounce back, those disapproval numbers are off the high.

I'm gonna call a bad poll on that.  +3 Dissaproval is rather odd.

I don't think so,  Phrasing perhaps.  Obama's disapproval numbers have been higher, 56%-58%.  55% is not bad for him.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42%, -2.

Disapprove 56%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +2.

Fairly substantial drop over the last two days.  It could be a bad sample (anti-Obama).  Overall, this are at the low end of the Obama range over the summer, but still within range.

With the holiday, we could see what the late week numbers look like.

[J. J.]

Can you offer some polling as to deduce what the "normal/independent voters" want? As MK ULTRA said, it's what you want, not what independent voters want.

Except GOP approval to drop drastically once he starts his tour, and Indy and Dem votes to increase slightly.

Quoted for truth.

We are not seeing other anything than Obama staying in a trough, at best.  I doubt, at this point, he will be able to move the numbers by shouting out "NEW STIMULUS," that cannot produce new changes in the next 59 days.

"Recovery Summer," was neither, in terms of either the economy nor Obama's poll numbers.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42%, u.

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 47%, +2.

This marks Obama's highest Strongly Disapprove number.  It is possibly just an overly anti-Obama sample moving through the numbers.

One thing to watch for is if his Strongly Disapprove numbers are higher than his overall Approve numbers.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42%, u.

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 47%, +2.

This marks Obama's highest Strongly Disapprove number.  It is possibly just an overly anti-Obama sample moving through the numbers.

One thing to watch for is if his Strongly Disapprove numbers are higher than his overall Approve numbers.

Now I don't mean to rain on the Conservative Parade, but this is clearly a bad Obama sample...

It may not be.  These numbers, while bad, are in range.

Obama's numbers were up for about a week on Rasmussen, 8/27-9/2.  It looked like there could be movement.  It may not be.  The current numbers are within 3 points of 8/26.

We won't know if this is a good sample or a bad sample until later in the week.

[J. J.]

Yeah, I have trouble believing that 47% of voters strongly disapprove of Obama. That would mean that he could never win any of them back, barring unforseen events. That would give Obama a ceiling of about 53% according to the Rassmussen poll, and that would presume that in order to win re-election he needs to convince a great number of people who currently disapprove of him. At this point in time, I have difficulty accepting that.

PS: Scifiguy, Kentucky as a tossup?

There is fluctuation, but it has been higher in June. 

The numbers, generally, have been in the mid 40's all year.

We won't know if this is a bad sample until the end of the week.

[J. J.]

It's Labor Day weekend...

Why would anyone trust polling right now?

Most of what we are looking at is from before the holiday.

[J. J.]

Gallup

45 +2
48 -1

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, +3.

Disapprove 54%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, -1.

If this was a bad sample, it should start passing tomorrow.

[J. J.]

Gallup: 44/49

It has been more stable than Rasmussen recently.

Just over the last 3-4 days.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, u.

[J. J.]

Gallup:  46/47

[J. J.]

New Jersey, still tied.

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

If that would translate into the election, Obama might not break 205 EV's (redistricting is a factor).

[J. J.]

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Iraq he can blame entirely on Bush but Iraq is winding down anyways so won't matter as much, but pinning any downturns in Afghanistan on Bush will comeback to haunt him and give the GOP the ammo of saying "See, he blames everything on Bush!" wether or not they are justified in doing so, the Democrats have had control of congress for about 4 years the last 2 years of which they had huge majorities not seen for a long time, and the white house for approaching 2 years. It will be harder and harder to continue passing the blame on to the predecessor. It may have worked in 2008, but by 2012 I suspect voters will see the Dem's blaming Bush as a turn off.

The problem is that voters will still hate Bush in 2012, and Obama's approval will be divided, but will not in any way will the average voter see Obama as a failure. Right now there is not a single believable poll that shows the GOP more 'popular' than the Democrats. They are trending higher, but right now people just hate the Democrats - and are voting GOP because they have no choice.

And Kentucky/TN can go Dem, I believe, they are more likely to go Dem than the Deep South.

Right not, they are holding the Democrats responsible for the economy (not fixing it).

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 54%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, -1.

While there was a slight improvement for Obama in late August/early September, it proved to be ephemeral.

[J. J.]

Gallup:  45/47